Goldman Sachs: Why $30 Oil is 'Too Much of a Good Thing' for the U.S. Economy

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But David Mericle and Daan Struyven, economists at Goldman Sachs Group, make the unconventional argument that higher oil prices would be a boon for U.S. growth by breaking down the three major avenues by which the level of crude impacts growth: investment, consumption, and trade.

The pair analyzed three scenarios in which Brent oil prices either fell to $30, recovered to $50, or rose to $70 by mid-2017 and stayed there for the year and a half, and the outcomes for the U.S. economy from 2016 through 2018 under each case.

Getting prices back to around $45 to $55 per barrel would provide a meaningful boost to U.S. capital spending, the economists note, as the breakeven prices for the three largest shale plays in the nation fall in this range.

If Brent returns to $70 per barrel by mid-2017, gross domestic product would be roughly 0.4 percentage points larger by the end of 2018 than if crude sank to $30 per barrel, according to Goldman's calculations.

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But if oil prices stay lower for longer, the U.S. consumer is the clear winner. While the extent to which households have elected to save rather than spend this energy windfall has proved surprising, Mericle and Struyven point out that "the consumption impact is likely less immediate and more prolonged than often assumed."

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