re: General Tornado Thread

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You've come a long way from last hurricane season (again not a complaint), and I'm glad someone else is posting these types of events. They can be exhausting.

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My parents are driving from my house in the eastern Memphis suburbs to Baton Rouge on Sunday and I'm going to suggest to them that they get on the road early.

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...SUMMARY...

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS CENTERED FROM THE

ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.



...SYNOPSIS...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES

AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS NEB. AN

ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL

PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW...CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE

MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE

CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO

THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD

REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.



...MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST...

OVERALL SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH

GRADUALLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK AMIDST

CONTINUED LIMITING FACTORS.



THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML WITH

LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM

FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND

ARKLATEX BY EARLY EVENING SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH INITIALLY STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL

SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.



AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN FROM PARTS OF IA TO

OK. ALTHOUGH THE BULK THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED...IT SHOULD

TRANSITION TO BECOMING SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL HEATING

ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE

POSSIBLE AS THIS LEAD CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS EWD.



THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND

REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION...THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL

UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN

EXTENT/. NAM/GFS GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AT LEAST

MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG INTO NERN KS AS

INSOLATION OCCURS ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA WOULD FOSTER

SCATTERED STORMS FORMING BY MID-AFTERNOON INVOF KS/MO BORDER.

ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL

HERE...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WOULD AID IN SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO

THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL /SOME

SIGNIFICANT/ AND AT LEAST A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. PARTS OF

THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT

APPEARS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL NOT BE TOO

DETRIMENTAL TO THE AFTERNOON THREAT.



FARTHER S...A MORE VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EXIST S

OF ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTION /INVOF THE ARKLATEX/. WITH SURFACE

TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO THE 80S/90S ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE IN

TX...MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF IT. HODOGRAPHS

APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY

LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN THE

MOST ROBUST WITH THE CO-LOCATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND LARGE

CURVING HODOGRAPHS. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGER KINEMATIC

FIELDS WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER EAST /CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS

VALLEY/. BUT WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NERN

TX SUN NIGHT...TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS

MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT

AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

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Tell me about it... 

You should've been here for the 2005 season. Talk about coming a long way. 

I'm glad we have y'all here now. 

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