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Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:07 pm to bmy
A battery powered semi-truck? That's some serious science fiction shite right there... Don't see that happening anytime soon.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:20 pm to Korkstand
maybe you could comment on this more because I always respect your tech analysis but my fiancees brother works in AI and he told me the reason why self driving cars wont ever happen is because its literally impossible to judge intent. He said something to the effect of if a car was backing out of a driveway an autonomous car would just freeze up because it wouldn't know the intent of that driver backing up and if you have a ton of these situations in real life you'd get a problem. He said there was just no way to have full autonomy ever.
I love Musks plan, if he had apples balance sheet and hundreds of billions to burn through trying this stuff out Id love it even more, but my issue is Tesla balance sheet looks awful and now next week the gigafactory opens and they're having a party and its like 14 or 17% complete. Even yesterday he was like 45 minutes late on his release of this master plan and it just seems like he can never get anything done on time.
I guess its one of those love the company, hate the stock situations for me
I love Musks plan, if he had apples balance sheet and hundreds of billions to burn through trying this stuff out Id love it even more, but my issue is Tesla balance sheet looks awful and now next week the gigafactory opens and they're having a party and its like 14 or 17% complete. Even yesterday he was like 45 minutes late on his release of this master plan and it just seems like he can never get anything done on time.
I guess its one of those love the company, hate the stock situations for me
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:22 pm to Korkstand
quote:
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
They should add:
Build charging/discharging grid throughout neighborhoods so that the cars that are plugged in can power houses using the car-battery-grid to compensate for cloudy days.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:26 pm to dabigfella
quote:
maybe you could comment on this more because I always respect your tech analysis but my fiancees brother works in AI and he told me the reason why self driving cars wont ever happen is because its literally impossible to judge intent. He said something to the effect of if a car was backing out of a driveway an autonomous car would just freeze up because it wouldn't know the intent of that driver backing up and if you have a ton of these situations in real life you'd get a problem. He said there was just no way to have full autonomy ever.
I love Musks plan, if he had apples balance sheet and hundreds of billions to burn through trying this stuff out Id love it even more, but my issue is Tesla balance sheet looks awful and now next week the gigafactory opens and they're having a party and its like 14 or 17% complete. Even yesterday he was like 45 minutes late on his release of this master plan and it just seems like he can never get anything done on time.
I guess its one of those love the company, hate the stock situations for me
It will be possible, human brains recognize patterns, and computers can process exponentially more data than the human brain now and in the future. The development of AI has followed a steady and predictable curve since the 70s - and the point at which they will have the processing power to decipher patterns at a real time level is somewhere in the 2030s.
Anyone who says AI "cant do this" or "its impossible to do that" simply hasn't followed the data that is out there.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:27 pm to dabigfella
quote:Maybe not now, not sure why we couldn't ever have it. I wouldn't think intent is part of the equation, but rather same crazy algorithms to judge safety based on that car backing out.
He said something to the effect of if a car was backing out of a driveway an autonomous car would just freeze up because it wouldn't know the intent of that driver backing up and if you have a ton of these situations in real life you'd get a problem. He said there was just no way to have full autonomy ever.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:28 pm to cajuncarguy
quote:
They could not sell many cars if it wasn't far the federal tax credit of $7500 from all of us!
This is just ridiculous, all the cars they've sold have been pretty expensive, you act like people paying $90k for a model s couldnt pay $7500 more. They could easily, but yes the government has subsidized the first few, I believe up to 200,000 maybe 250,000.
Anyways, do you have a cheap flat screen tv? You can thank the early adopters there that paid $8k 15 years ago to help invest in the product bringing down its future costs, tesla did the same, using wealthy people to finance future cars. Lots of brands do this. Lamborghini when it was done with the murcielago launched the reventon which was $2M each and sold 20 or 25 units, not because the car was worth it, but because the profits from the car would help finance future cars.
This post was edited on 7/21/16 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:28 pm to philter
quote:I think the bigger thing is when people say it or something will never happen. Even if we don't have the technology for something now, that doesn't me we aren't advancing and working towards having that technology at some later point in time.
Anyone who says AI "cant do this" or "its impossible to do that" simply hasn't followed the data that is out there.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:30 pm to Napoleon
quote:
Summary Musk wants to build self driving 18-wheelers and buses.
Maximum Overdrive, it's happening.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:36 pm to dabigfella
quote:
Maybe you could comment on this more because I always respect your tech analysis but my fiancees brother works in AI and he told me the reason why self driving cars wont ever happen is because its literally impossible to judge intent. He said something to the effect of if a car was backing out of a driveway an autonomous car would just freeze up because it wouldn't know the intent of that driver backing up and if you have a ton of these situations in real life you'd get a problem. He said there was just no way to have full autonomy ever.
Huh? Tesla already produces cars that are almost 100% autonomously driven. The Google car has millions of miles driven autonomously. Your fiance's brother is way off. If it wasn't for the legislative nightmare that it's going to take to get the approvals (see their estimate about $10 billion in lobbying), we could have fully autonomous cars in a decade.
quote:
I love Musks plan, if he had apples balance sheet and hundreds of billions to burn through trying this stuff out Id love it even more, but my issue is Tesla balance sheet looks awful
Musk's three company's have always been interconnected in Tesla's future. He had Solarcity for the solar and battery component, and he uses SpaceX for the incredible cash revenue. Without SpaceX, Tesla is broke years ago.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:37 pm to shel311
quote:
Maybe not now, not sure why we couldn't ever have it. I wouldn't think intent is part of the equation, but rather same crazy algorithms to judge safety based on that car backing out.
Exactly. It's debatable whether AI can replicate all human emotions/reactions. But that's irrelevant as far as the outcome of a situation. If an algorithm can predict and apply logic to get an outcome that is desirable, the end effect is the same. So people should be careful when applying human logic to a system of processing data that is not designed like a human mind.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:39 pm to The Egg
quote:
Love the plan
Hope they can execute it.
It's gonna be a loooong bumpy ride, but he'll get there eventually. The dude is a force of nature akin to Steve Jobs. He's taken on two industries (automobile and space) that there literally is no such thing as a start-up. You legit can't join the market. There's nothing but established dinosaurs ruling an arena of inefficiency and government kickbacks (lol at the guy saying he couldn't produce his car without the tax breaks, no shite, neither could any rocket or other car).
He completely reinvented how rockets and cars are designed and built. The dude looked inside existing rockets and space shuttles and saw 1960s equipment and was like 'frick that'. He's rebuilt every aspect of these products down to the factories that produce them, and he's utilized cutting edge Silicone Valley geniuses to do it.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:39 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I would be shocked if 100% adoption of self driving happens in our lifetimes. Maybe generations from now no one will drive, but I don't think anyone alive today will live in a time where the option to drive is prohibited.
You're waaaaaay off IMO. I'd be shocked if it wasn't here by two decades.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:56 pm to FootballNostradamus
Tesla cars are nowhere near 100% autonomous wtf are you smoking? Simple lane changes do not equate 100% autonomous. They cant detect and stop and start at red lights or stop signs. Dude this is nonsense
Posted on 7/21/16 at 12:59 pm to dabigfella
quote:
dabigfella
maybe you could comment on this more because I always respect your tech analysis but my fiancees brother works in AI and he told me the reason why self driving cars wont ever happen is because its literally impossible to judge intent. He said something to the effect of if a car was backing out of a driveway an autonomous car would just freeze up because it wouldn't know the intent of that driver backing up and if you have a ton of these situations in real life you'd get a problem. He said there was just no way to have full autonomy ever.
He definitely doesn't work in AI if that is what he thinks. Driving is a relatively simple task to automate.
This post was edited on 7/21/16 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 7/21/16 at 1:03 pm to bmy
That is an amazing wall of text. 
Posted on 7/21/16 at 1:04 pm to dabigfella
quote:
Tesla cars are nowhere near 100% autonomous wtf are you smoking? Simple lane changes do not equate 100% autonomous. They cant detect and stop and start at red lights or stop signs. Dude this is nonsense
You can drive from NY to California and autopilot about 95% of the trip.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 1:07 pm to bmy
cliffs is that Musk thinks humanity is inefficient and wants to replace us with cybernetic organisms growing living tissue over a hyperalloy endoskeleton.
Posted on 7/21/16 at 1:08 pm to bmy
and by autopilot 95% of the trip you mean what? Like sit in the back seat and read a book or take a nap or what exactly?
Posted on 7/21/16 at 1:10 pm to BoostAddict
quote:I think trucks are a perfect and obvious vehicle to run on batteries. They need lots of torque (electric motors destroy IC engines in this regard), they almost always have a trailer attached to house more batteries, and they have tons of roof space for solar panels. Further, they are perfect candidates for automation. They drive mainly on highways along particular routes, and they will never fall asleep at the wheel as truckers do.
A battery powered semi-truck? That's some serious science fiction shite right there... Don't see that happening anytime soon.
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