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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/28/16 at 5:48 am to bobbyleewilliams
Posted on 8/28/16 at 5:48 am to bobbyleewilliams
frick it, just give me your gut instinct.
0
Posted on 8/28/16 at 5:52 am to patendedgmf
when you watch the weather channel and other experts, they all trust the GFS and the European model. Sure there are a lot of models and sometimes one of these obscure models may predict what it is going to do. I haven't seen the recent euro run, but the GFS takes it into Florida, and not strengthening much. So far the Euro has been off in it's predictions and the GFS has been pretty on.
I'm not worried about this storm other than the rain threat, if this hits us even as an area of low pressure, it could bring floodings again to Baton Rouge.
I'm not worried about this storm other than the rain threat, if this hits us even as an area of low pressure, it could bring floodings again to Baton Rouge.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 6:20 am to patendedgmf
At 87 W & 25 N is where most of the models have it turning up towards the panhandle. Why? Can someone answer why it's breaking at this point?
This post was edited on 8/28/16 at 6:21 am
Posted on 8/28/16 at 6:35 am to Rakim
try not to focus on the exact location that the models are putting it for now..just look at the steering flow that will move it in that direction.
a broad 500mb ridge develops over Mexico and the west/central US and starts moving east on Wednesday. This steers the storm north and east along with it.
The speed and timing of this ridge are the main factors contributing to the storm motion that will determine where landfall occurs.. it should at least keep the storm away from the mexico and southern Texas coast regardless, but it remains to be seen if it can keep it away from Louisiana as well.
a broad 500mb ridge develops over Mexico and the west/central US and starts moving east on Wednesday. This steers the storm north and east along with it.
The speed and timing of this ridge are the main factors contributing to the storm motion that will determine where landfall occurs.. it should at least keep the storm away from the mexico and southern Texas coast regardless, but it remains to be seen if it can keep it away from Louisiana as well.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 7:23 am to baytiger
First visible images of the day coming in:
Overnight ASCAT showed an improved wind pattern with 99L but hard to call it truly closed off but very close. Also, the latest CIMSS showed that the system wasn't nearly as disjointed as yesterday. The mid level spin (500mb vort) was much closer to the low level spin (850mb vort) than anytime yesterday. It will be interesting to see what the 12z update shows from CIMSS.
Overnight ASCAT showed an improved wind pattern with 99L but hard to call it truly closed off but very close. Also, the latest CIMSS showed that the system wasn't nearly as disjointed as yesterday. The mid level spin (500mb vort) was much closer to the low level spin (850mb vort) than anytime yesterday. It will be interesting to see what the 12z update shows from CIMSS.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 7:27 am to rds dc
Rapid Scan Hi Res is running again today. Great sunrise ongoing right now.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 7:54 am to patendedgmf
[/img]Posted on 8/28/16 at 8:06 am to Rakim
he may have been mentioned before but this guy knows what he is talking about, he gives a daily update and sometimes more often for major storms. His website has lots of good information, including models satellites etc. It's the guy I trust in this, doesn't provide a potential disaster spin of the weather channel or the don't worry about the storm of some posters here. He gives a good unbias view of storms and knows what he is talking about.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 8:13 am to catholictigerfan
I just go to the OT for my hurricane info
Posted on 8/28/16 at 8:22 am to Rakim
Faster it develops plays into how fast it turns north. If it stays weak in the GOM as nothing then it's probably going to keep tracking westward until it strengthens THEN turns north. Seems like they have a ridge developing near Mexico so the faster that moves towards Louisiana the more it will shield us. That could either be really bad for LA or really good depending on how fast it moves and how fast the storm moves west.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 9:04 am to rds dc
quote:
apid Scan Hi Res is running again today. Great sunrise ongoing right now.
Still looks like a lot of shear from the NW.
This post was edited on 8/28/16 at 9:05 am
Posted on 8/28/16 at 9:15 am to rds dc
I mean, I see the area they are calling the circulation center, and where they are showing it on the maps, but it looks like the center is actually to the southeast, and it looks to be a much more defined area than where they are saying it is. Maybe it's just a few frames that make it look like that?
Posted on 8/28/16 at 9:47 am to Fratigerguy
quote:
@NOAA_HurrHunter 1300L takeoff today into #invest99L is a GO. We will be flying down low at 1,500ft above the water to look for signs of rotation. 9:32 AM - 28 Aug 2016
Posted on 8/28/16 at 10:48 am to GEAUXmedic
Dang i was not expecting a new depression west of Bermuda when i woke up this morning. Looks like busy times ahead as we head towards the peak of the season.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 10:50 am to lsuman25
Looking more and more like a huge rainmaker for someone on gulf coast.... My prediction is between mobile and mouth of river. Let's hope it doesn't hit and sit for a couple days
Posted on 8/28/16 at 10:52 am to MorgusTheMagnificent
Yea looks like it's gonna depend how far west it can reach before turning north then northeast as too where it will eventually go.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 11:40 am to LSU1NSEC
Does it cut up north or does it stay on a westward track towards Texas/Mexico?
Posted on 8/28/16 at 11:41 am to chicano12
quote:
Does it cut up north or does it stay on a westward track towards Texas/Mexico?
Not sure.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 11:47 am to LSU1NSEC
This shite sucks.
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