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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:56 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/27/16 at 11:56 pm to GEAUXmedic
Looks like "Ian" follows "Hermine" right up the east coast on that run like a RB following his FB.
1
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:05 am to NorthEndZone
This storm would be.. i don't even have a word for it.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:09 am to GEAUXmedic
I'll be gone when that next system makes its way over. That thing looks like a nightmare waiting to happen, but luckily it's at hour 336 so hopefully something will happen to weaken it as it makes its way across the atlantic
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:35 am to rds dc
Thanks rds dc
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:37 am to CuseTiger
Back to 99L. Not trying to stir shite up, but I recall K rapidly intensifying almost overnight to a Cat 5 before reducing to a 3 at landfall. rdc and others, what caused that rapid intensification and does the gulf currently possess similar conditions? Again, I'm not trying to stir it up, just am extremely fascinated by/scared of these storms.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:39 am to Costanza
Good question
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:46 am to GEAUXmedic
HWRF backs off from Cat 4 to more believable Cat 2 but still direct hit on Tampa.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:49 am to NorthEndZone
CMC takes 99L near Alabama/Florida border
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:50 am to lsuman25
That's a little too close for my liking.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 12:51 am to Jim Rockford
Yea, waiting for the Euro now
Posted on 8/28/16 at 1:04 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/28/16 at 1:07 am to lsuman25
CMC takes P25L into the Caribbean.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 1:10 am to GEAUXmedic
Looks like that one is gonna be the one to watch, although i won't take my eyes off 99l until it is dead
Posted on 8/28/16 at 1:23 am to lsuman25
Euro takes it into the big bend area of Florida
Posted on 8/28/16 at 1:25 am to Costanza
Deep eddies in the gulf caused Katrina to explode. If this little fella hits one of those all bets are off.
At that point the storm is referred to as a "bahama buster"
At that point the storm is referred to as a "bahama buster"
Posted on 8/28/16 at 1:58 am to lsuman25
Euro is gulf bound for P25L on this one
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:01 am to GEAUXmedic
ugh thankfully that is 10 days away but if that high stays that strong like the Euro has then yea this one will have to be closely monitored
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:41 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
IMO we should be looking at P25L more than 99L, it has unanimous support from the Global models. Yeah, I know models sucked for 99L, but 99L never had unanimous support.
P25L is too far out to focus on at this point... I mean it could literally end up anywhere in the Atlantic
However, as I check the 00Z models this morning, I'm finding the best concensus yet that 99L develops in the Gulf. Even the GFS agrees with the Euro at this point, which hasn't happened at all before in this storm.
It does get me back to wondering why the Euro has been busting so hard on 99L though... going back, I think a few of the models (not just the Euro) have been overestimating initial intensity which snowballed into later forecasts. It's probably not that simple but it's a start.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:51 am to Costanza
quote:We're looking for low shear, a very moist atmosphere, and water temperatures above about 80°.
Back to 99L. Not trying to stir shite up, but I recall K rapidly intensifying almost overnight to a Cat 5 before reducing to a 3 at landfall. rdc and others, what caused that rapid intensification and does the gulf currently possess similar conditions? Again, I'm not trying to stir it up, just am extremely fascinated by/scared of these storms.
The water temperatures are definitely there... with most of the gulf above 85°. Moisture seems to be there as well, especially in the eastern gulf, looking at water vapor imagery. There appears to be a weak upper level anticyclone over the central gulf as well, which is producing a low shear environment for 99L the rest of the way.
So yes, the conditions are pretty much prime for intensification when it gets in the Gulf. That's part of the reason we've been keeping such a close eye on this one... because it could quickly become a threat once it gets close.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 4:38 am to baytiger
I always like to look at the Intensity Guidance along with the Spaghetti.
GFNI would hit BR as a Cat 1. Worst of the models for us.
GFNI would hit BR as a Cat 1. Worst of the models for us.
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