Tropical Storm Cindy

My body is

[ready]

not ready

In!!!

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12z model runs from today:

Euro @ D10:



GFS farther out:



New Version of GFS:



All of these are very low confidence solutions. I'll explain later why this storm probably won't happen.

That euro shot is deceiving. The pressure shown supports a TS/Cat 1, and is usually overblown by the EURO anyways. The large pressure field typical of this time of year also makes this potential storm look bigger than it actually would be. IMO it all depends, if this thing even forms, where it comes off the yucatan. East would be more favorable than west, and both the GFS and EURO seem to agree with this line of thinking.

GFS and EURO haven't shown any trends aside from there being some type of low pressure system at 10 days out. The euro is also overblowing the setup intermittently, including developing that little system east of the lesser antilles.

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That euro shot is deceiving. The pressure shown supports a TS/Cat 1, and is usually overblown by the EURO anyways. The large pressure field typical of this time of year also makes this potential storm look bigger than it actually would be. IMO it all depends, if this thing even forms, where it comes off the yucatan. East would be more favorable than west, and both the GFS and EURO seem to agree with this line of thinking.

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In that image, there is a broad synoptic scale weakness across the Gulf. The system would probably be on the larger side, given the trough is basically lifting the entire CA gyre north into the Gulf. It would also probably be sheared and interacting with a surface boundary that is sagging across the SE US. Overall, probably not a very photogenic system but would have high end rainfall potential.

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GFS and EURO haven't shown any trends aside from there being some type of low pressure system at 10 days out. The euro is also overblowing the setup intermittently, including developing that little system east of the lesser antilles.

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The 12z runs don't really change things. There is pretty good agreement across the models that a large area of disorganized low pressure will form in 3 or 4 days across Central America. Beyond that, total guessing game. That is a very low predictability pathway to genesis and the models have been way to spin up happy with these setups the last couple of years. Also, the models have been horrible here lately beyond 5 days with the 500mb pattern across N. America. That trough in the longer range over the Great Lakes is going to play a huge role in determining if there is even an opening for a system to get into the Gulf. The MJO might favor something like the 00z Euro but even the MJO has been pretty worthless here lately with KWs racing across the tropics.

NHC has issued a 5 Day 20%

quote:

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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea or Central America late this week or this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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Models are still struggling with this but have generally shifted SE keeping any potential system down in the BOC.

00z Euro

On vacation next week in ft Morgan... Am I fricked or what?

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The Weatherman assures us that someplace will get screwed this season.