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Started By
Message
Underhill: Saints do not have LSU bias, the numbers say
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:06 am
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:06 am
quote:
If Saints have a bias against LSU, so does the rest of NFL against their in-state colleges
quote:
“I think it’s more people around the team, like the media, who are aware of it,” ESPN Baton Rouge radio host and former LSU player T-Bob Herbert said. “The players know it, but from where I sit I think it’s always been hard to have a bias. What kind of purpose would their bias serve? It is odd to have more players than any other school in the league and not have a single one drafted who is on the team an hour down the road. I think it is a weird product of circumstance.”
It might not even be a weird product of circumstance. In fact, it appears to be rather normal. The Jaguars, who have drafted seven players from Florida since 2002, are the only team in the NFL that has repeatedly looked to select players from the big school in their region. Most everyone else has played it like the Saints.
Ohio State, which had 45 players on opening-day rosters last season, has only placed two players each with the Browns and Bengals during that span. The Falcons have selected four players from Georgia, the Bucs have taken four from Florida State, the Raiders and Chargers have combined to pick six from USC, the Lions have grabbed two from Michigan and the Eagles have only scooped one guy from Penn State.
Even when you start expanding to entire geographical regions most teams don’t have lopsided numbers. Give the Panthers North Carolina, South Carolina and Clemson and their total goes to five. The Bears have selected one player from Illinois and Notre Dame. The Cowboys have two when you include TCU and Texas. Seattle has five picks when counting Oregon, Washington and Washington State.
This conspiracy isn’t a conspiracy at all. While it’s popular to claim one exists in Louisiana, the conversation is as legitimate as an Elvis or 2Pac sighting. The fact is, New Orleans would like to have more Tigers around. It just hasn’t worked out that way.
Long article, I recommend the entire read: LINK
8
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:10 am to Rand AlThor
Maybe if Cleveland drafted more Ohio State players, they'd win a game occasionally.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:28 am to Rand AlThor
Saints could have had La'El Collins
Dude signed an UDFA 3-year 1.6 mil contract.
Dude signed an UDFA 3-year 1.6 mil contract.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:29 am to lsutigers1992
Didn’t work for the Charlotte hornets when they drafted a bunch of players from the UNC national championship team back in the day (Sean may, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants). They were still trash
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:30 am to Roaad
30 other teams could have had him as well. He chose the Cowboys though. shite happens.
This post was edited on 4/6/18 at 8:31 am
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:32 am to Roaad
quote:
Saints could have had La'El Collins
He stated clearly that he was not going to sign if he got drafted late. The unknown of his situation is what drove teams to avoid picking him early, and his threat had the same effect later in the draft. It was up to him where he went, and he chose Dallas. Get over it.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:38 am to Spelt it rong
quote:
chose Dallas
I understand this, but it has been well documented that the Saints did not even call him or put in any effort at all. Maybe they didnt want to ruffle any feathers with the NFL. Who knows.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:42 am to Roaad
I know for a fact he was not coming here. He didn't want to stay in Louisiana and chose the Cowboys bc of their already fairly complete line.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:48 am to Rand AlThor
T-Bob Herbert sounds way dumber for some reason
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:48 am to adamb2151
quote:
it has been well documented that the Saints did not even call him or put in any effort at all. Maybe they didnt want to ruffle any feathers with the NFL. Who knows.
I wasn't aware of the Saints not even attempting to contact him. That blows the mind a little bit, but perhaps they didn't see him as a top priority. IDK.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:55 am to Spelt it rong
I swear, can we get over Collins? The entire league wasn't touching him.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:59 am to Rand AlThor
Well not everyone is gunning for the players from a more irrelevant school like Miami (OH), but LSU is a talent-wise national competitor every year, with about as many players in the league as any other school. I'm confident we have a disproportionately low number of LSU players on the team.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:02 am to Barbellthor
quote:
I'm confident we have a disproportionately low number of LSU players on the team.
Statistically speaking, no. We don't.
I posted this a couple of years ago:
quote:
You can find every Saints pick going back to 1967 (which, for you bandwagoners, was the year the Saints were founded) on Pro Football Reference ( LINK)
Out of 538 draft picks, the Saints have drafted 9 players from LSU. That may seem like a low number, but the most tapped school by the Saints is a tie between USC and Nebraska with 17. You may think that that is a big difference because it is almost double, but the 9 from LSU is 2% of total drafted and the 17 from USC/Nebraska is 3% of total drafted. You don't have to have a degree in Statistics (but luckily for you, I do) to realize that that is a very small difference in %. Statistically speaking, that is an insignificant difference. Meaning that statistically speaking, there is no difference between the amount of players drafted from LSU than any other school. The Saints have historically done a great job of drafting evenly from every school.
This post was edited on 4/6/18 at 9:08 am
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:02 am to Barbellthor
quote:
I'm confident we have a disproportionately low number of LSU players on the team.
That's just not true. Past & present.
Hell, if you consider Paul Turner a LSU guy...we actually have 3 guys on the roster right now. That's not even counting Delvin Breaux.
This post was edited on 4/6/18 at 9:06 am
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:06 am to adamb2151
quote:
but it has been well documented that the Saints did not even call him or put in any effort at all
Does not equal
quote:
Cowboys rookie La'el Collins might not play Sunday, but he still has plenty of ticket requests to handle for a game that will be played close to home. AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth
There was a chance every week could have been a homecoming for Collins. After he went undrafted because of circumstances out of his control, Collins and his agent had conversations with the Saints, among other teams.
“I think he was looking forward to an opportunity further away from home than close to home, and I understand that,” Saints coach Sean Payton said. “I had several conversations, and we did our work and research on it. I think he found a good fit.”
Collins, however, said his decision to leave Louisiana had nothing to do with his questioning in the death of a former girlfriend just six days before the draft.
“Definitely a big-time decision for me as far as where I want to spend my career, things I want to do,” Collins said. “I looked at it that way. Definitely wasn’t an emotional decision. More of a business decision.”
LINK
This post was edited on 4/6/18 at 9:10 am
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:09 am to CajunsTigersSaints
It doesn't matter that Collins and his agent had conversations with the Saints. It doesn't fit the rantards' narrative of the Saints hating LSU.
This post was edited on 4/6/18 at 9:10 am
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:19 am to Roaad
quote:
Saints could have had La'El Collins
You have it backwards hoss. If La'el wanted to be a Saint he would have walked in the front door and signed. The Saints would not have said no. Period.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:26 am to Roaad
quote:
Saints could have had La'El Collins
Nah
He said if he wasn’t drafted in the top 3 rounds (maybe sooner) he wouldn’t sign and would re-enter the draft the next year.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:41 am to GOON
quote:
You can find every Saints pick going back to 1967 (which, for you bandwagoners, was the year the Saints were founded) on Pro Football Reference ( LINK)
Out of 538 draft picks, the Saints have drafted 9 players from LSU. That may seem like a low number, but the most tapped school by the Saints is a tie between USC and Nebraska with 17. You may think that that is a big difference because it is almost double, but the 9 from LSU is 2% of total drafted and the 17 from USC/Nebraska is 3% of total drafted. You don't have to have a degree in Statistics (but luckily for you, I do) to realize that that is a very small difference in %. Statistically speaking, that is an insignificant difference. Meaning that statistically speaking, there is no difference between the amount of players drafted from LSU than any other school. The Saints have historically done a great job of drafting evenly from every school.
This is slightly misleading. LSU has currently and for a long time the most players in the NFL. So to say "we pick just as many players from school X as LSU... no bias" doesnt make sense. Statistically you should have MORE players on your team from the school that has the most players. The distribution of LSU players to the league is not relatively equal to the Saints.
Add to that the proximity. Now im glad that the saints scouting department doesnt care about proximity when evaluating talent, but over time, it stands to reason that it would have some effect.
That being said i dont care about this at all. I just thought that quoted paragraph was douchey (i.e. "luckily i do"). If you are going to tout yourself as some statistical authority you might want to consider more than the elementary level of detail that you did.
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:48 am to Hester Carries
quote:
If you are going to tout yourself as some statistical authority you might want to consider more than the elementary level of detail that you did.
Fair enough, but I was playing to my audience (those that insist there is a bias). I could do a deeper analysis using the distribution of players from each school and conduct some regression testing using different models (binomial, normal, maybe even Poisson), but I didn't really want to take the time to devote to a full analysis - I do have a day job.
And you're right, the "luckily I do" line was a bit much, I was frustrated with the argument at the time I posted it.
This post was edited on 4/6/18 at 9:55 am
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