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Tie breaker answer please?

Posted on 12/1/16 at 8:40 pm
Posted by champj3
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2010
267 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 8:40 pm
Should the Saints win out, and Atlanta drop one NFC game and lose to the Saints, who wins division?
Split head to head
Same division record 4-2
Same NFC record
What's 4th tie breaker?
Posted by apfour21
New Orleans, LA
Member since Nov 2012
3143 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 8:51 pm to
I think it is strength of schedule of victories or maybe record against similar opponents but not sure.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 8:53 pm
Posted by tigersint
Lafayette
Member since Nov 2012
3548 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 8:59 pm to
I believe i herd somewhere that they have to lose to the Panthers
Posted by CoeJ
Member since Oct 2010
1827 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:05 pm to
It's winning percentage in common games.

source: ran the scenarios in playoff machine.

Playoff Machine
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:06 pm
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:08 pm to
Well they only have two uncommon games. Anyone know their record in those (if they even played one or both yet)?

Edit:
They beat GB but lost to Philly.

We lost to the Giants and need to beat the Lions.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:16 pm
Posted by tigersint
Lafayette
Member since Nov 2012
3548 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:11 pm to
They have to lose to Carolina and Us.

Or lose 2 games. And lose to us.


Or we have to hope that Washington loses 2 more
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:20 pm to
So in the op's scenario we would be tied all the way down to win% in common games.

Is it strength of schedule or points next?

Edit:
So apparently it's strength of victory. What is that (point differential or wins over teams with more wins)?

Then strength of schedule.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:23 pm
Posted by Brightside Bengal
Old Metairie
Member since Sep 2007
3883 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:24 pm to
Saints & ATL both currently have 3 NFC losses. If Saints win out, ATL can lose any one game (afc opponents included), and then if they lose to Saints, ATL has 4 NFC losses vs the Saints' 3. Saints win tiebreaker.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:25 pm
Posted by drake20
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13123 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:26 pm to
Yep. Saints beat DET and KC beats ATL and we're in business. It's happening.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:28 pm to
He asked what if they have the same nfc record.

So in the op's scenario it will come down to strength of victory, which is your opponents' that you've beaten combined win %.

Not sure where we will stand with that.

Edit:
I see what you're saying though. The op's scenario is impossible.

We win out and they lose one other one and we're in.

Being that they just lost Trufant I see that as very plausible.

The bigger issue is if we can win out or lose just one more.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:32 pm
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49512 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:33 pm to
All I know is that I feel sick rooting for the Cowboys right now.

ETA: I don't think anyone has done a "Who to root for" thread this season. I'll start one next Wednesday if it hasn't been done yet.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:34 pm
Posted by drake20
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13123 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:36 pm to
Falcons gonna lose at LA too. They'll do the usual melt and we'll have the division locked up before we even play them.
Posted by CoeJ
Member since Oct 2010
1827 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:38 pm to
delete
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:40 pm
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:39 pm to
I actually ran the scenario you suggest and it still has Atl winning the division.

In fact it has them winning it even if they lose to us and the Rams and we win out.

Granted I didn't pick any other teams games but that shouldn't affect us from that standpoint (maybe from a strength of victory standpoint).
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:42 pm
Posted by Paco_taco
Dallas, Tx
Member since Apr 2012
1361 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:47 pm to
Saints can get the 3 seed at 9-7.

A man can dream right?
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:53 pm to
The espn playoff machine must be buggy because we would be tied head to head, tied in division record, tied in common games, and we would be one better in conference giving us the tie breaker, yet it still has them winning.

Something I'm not seeing or is it busted?
Posted by drake20
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13123 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 9:57 pm to
Nvm. It must be messed up. I'm not going to look up common game records.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 9:58 pm
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 10:03 pm to
You don't have to. We only play two uncommon games.

Assuming we win out and they lose to KC and us we would have the same record, same division record, and same common game record (we would each have split the uncommon games, meaning we would have the same common game record also).

We would be ahead in the next tie breaker, which is conference record, by one game and should win the division.

The playoff machine is busted.
Posted by drake20
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13123 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 10:05 pm to
Oh duh. Gotcha

I give the Falcons about an 8% chance of making the playoffs.
This post was edited on 12/1/16 at 10:06 pm
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 12/1/16 at 10:19 pm to
As long as we handle our end I think we can win even if we go 9-7 (but we need to win the division games).

And just to put it in writing after quadruple checking in the scenario I stated:

Head to head
1-1

Division
both 4-2 (our losses to Atl and Car and theirs to TB and us)

Common games
Both 9-5 (our losses to Oak, Atl, KC, Den, and Car and theirs to TB, Sea, KC, us, and SD)

Conference
Us at 9-3 (loses to NYG, Car, and Atl)
Atl at 8-4 (loses to TB, us, Philly, and Sea)

It's at that point we would win the tie breaker for the division.
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