"The Jimmy Graham Dilemma" (Article)

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This is important because Jimmy Graham, although a TE, lines up in the slot and out wide at a typical receiver position more than the majority, if not all the tight ends in the league. Thus, an argument for the higher franchise valuation can be made because Article 10, Sec 2(a)(i) of the NFL CBA states that, “the franchise designation of a player will be determined according to where the Franchise player participated in the most plays during the prior League Year.” If Graham can get an arbitrator to believe that plays for a tight end should only count if they are lined up on the line, then perhaps the arbitrator will decide that Graham should be viewed as a wide receiver and receive the higher amount.

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The reason for Graham to do a deal is the fact that if he loses the arbitration case and is deemed a TE, his 2014 franchise number is $7.05 million. Worse, however, is the very real potential of being franchised again in 2015 for $8.5 million (120% of the 2014 franchise number), thus delaying his impending free agency for two full seasons.

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The reason for the Saints to do a deal before a grievance and/or arbitration verdict follows a similar path; if an arbitrator were to find that Graham should be franchised at the wide receiver number of $12.1 million, then not only will it cost an additional $5 million in 2014, but it will also make franchising him in 2015 more costly, counting potentially $14.5 million against next year’s cap. Furthermore, it makes completing a long-term deal that much harder because if Graham knows he is getting $26 million over the next two years, what reason does he have to get a deal done for much less than an average of $13 million per season? Additionally, the guaranteed amount would need to be at least $26 million and likely more for the deal to make much, if any, sense for Graham to sign.

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If the Saints are going to reset the tight end market by making Graham the highest paid TE, the problem becomes how much more they will be willing to pay over Gronkowski’s $9 million average per year, as well as how much more guaranteed than the $15.5 million they would pay if they simply franchise Graham over the next two years. Teams do not particularly care to reset the bar for positional salaries and when they do, they would like to keep the amount as in-line with the market as possible. So if the Saints agree to make Graham the highest paid TE in the league, the number I would assume they would want to pay is likely $9.5 million per year.

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At the end of the day, Jimmy Sexton (Graham’s agent) and Mickey Loomis (Saints GM) are both proven veterans that know how to make a deal when the time is right, and for that reason I think this deal will get done most likely at a number that is a little above or below where each of the parties would like it to be.

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