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re: Saints Salary Cap Discussion

Posted on 1/30/14 at 12:49 pm to
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
64497 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

If we had PT we would have had a much better chance in Seattle


Only would agree if PT had stolen Drews gloves from his locker.



But between PT and DS I would keep PT.
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

I get that it would have made Brees's cap hits even more obnoxious, but he's going to be here no matter what.


With him we can roll as far forward as possible. Smith is the painful example of rolling money forward. He's gonna be $11mil worth of cap for 2013 & 14 combined... for a 32 year old with 18 sacks in his last 4 years. I won't mind a $20mil cap hit after Brees retires for who he is and what he has done here.
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49527 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 1:04 pm to
I think that's the plan, especially since Payton may move on/retire when Brees does, so he probably doesn't give a shite about the cap woes that come after. Stay competitive for the next ~5 years, take the massive cap hit when we have to cut Brees, suck for a year or two while we rebuild. Given the age of our key players, the only ones I would really make sure to keep into that next era are Jordan, Vaccaro, and maybe Hicks/Armstead.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30139 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

Yeah, but where missing PT showed was the amount of pressure put on Drew Brees because none of our other backs can pass block well.



total 3 sacks given up in the playoffs against the #9 sack and #20 sack defenses. People say that we need PT, but give ingram and khiry more time and they'll learn better. In limited snaps khiry had better numbers than PT 0.2 vs. 0.1

Using pff, it is so marginal, but I didn't see much pressure given up when I watched khiry and ingram.

Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

give ingram and khiry more time and they'll learn better. In limited snaps khiry had better numbers than PT 0.2 vs. 0.1

I'm all for it but ya really can't use that disparate of reps to compare. Then, the essential question is why were their passing snaps so few? Some guys don't learn better. Chris Ivory only added 2 more catches this year to his career total of 5 in 39 NFL games.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:12 pm to
First and foremost you look at pressures, not sacks(they are a part of pressures). Sacks are a very deceiving number.

Second, these numbers(PFF grades) are based off of a person watching the game and assigning points. It's not an exact science. If you actually watch the games you see PT throwing his body into the defender every time. He rarely misses. I've seen enough of Ingram to know he misses about a 3rd of the time.

You also might want to recheck what you're looking at. Ingram had a total of 14 pass blocking snaps out of 173(8%). Robinson had 3 out of 76(4%). So that AMAZING 0.2 for Robinson(a whole 0.1 higher than PT!) is based off of 3 snaps that he may not even had to do anything on.

Thomas had 73 out of 578(12.6%), but more importantly is the number of snaps he got because he can pass block. If Ingram and/or Robinson were trusted more PT would have a lot less snaps.

Hell Sproles isn't trusted to do it either with 14 out of 364(4%). They know his limitations and his strengths.

What I find sad is the number of pass blocking snaps Jed had and how poorly he was at it.

Other notes about those numbers, they are finally evening out Ingram in the pass and run game. Robinson is falling into the trap that Ingram was in, though he seems more able to power through despite teams being able to key on him more when he's in.

Yes I would LOVE for Ingram and Robinson to develop into all around backs, but they haven't yet and PT is the only one of those we have. Much like Strief and Meach were this year, PT goes under appreciated again.
This post was edited on 1/30/14 at 2:13 pm
Posted by Hoodoo Man
Sunshine Pumping most days.
Member since Oct 2011
31637 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

In limited snaps khiry had better numbers than PT 0.2 vs. 0.1
That's really not enough to make a difference.

A full point maybe.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

That's really not enough to make a difference.

A full point maybe.


Right but what's even worse is, like blues and I said, it's based off of 3 snaps for Robinson.

I guess that means he didn't totally frick up 3 whole times!
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30139 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:28 pm to
Of course I understand what you're saying, don't get me wrong, I fully accept and aware that the # of pass blocking that ingram/robinson/sproles are used are not even CLOSE to what PT does.

We've all watched sproles get ran over by a blitzing LB/CB and maybe 1/5 of the time he holds up longer than normal or throws his whole body into the rusher to take him down to give drew time.

The issue is that PT is getting up there in age and he's slowing down with an already average running ability (i think we all agree he's getting over the hill).

Our solution starts with the line, I think as the line improves, there becomes less of a need for a 'perfect' pass protector from a RB point of view (maybe it is time to also improve from a FB point of view as well). When armstead came in, we gave up less and less overall pressure in every game armstead was in.

PT is appreciated for everything he does. He's never going to be the homerun hitter (no one expects that), but he's a jack of all trades in this system that requires a jack of all trades. I just think maybe its time for us to commit more playing time to younger fresher legs. Depend more on a truly balanced traditional run game and get our passing game together with a solid FA signing or draft pick.

ETA: sometimes being fancy and innovative isn't always going to succeed forever. i.e. philly's 1st game vs. the rest of the season
This post was edited on 1/30/14 at 2:29 pm
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:38 pm to
Yeah I get that and it makes sense, especially where money is concerned. But just like I didn't want to see us go into the season with Brown as the starter, I don't want to see us go into the season without PT unless we get a replacement.

I'm not saying don't replace him. I'm just saying we have to get one first because what we have isn't it(at the moment).
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30139 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:42 pm to
Agreed, it is a huge gamble, but if the coaches saw or seen something in Ingram/Robinson in regards to blocking I wouldn't question it if we have seen the last of PT.

We just need to clear the house on RB, get a shady/JC/forte/rice RB that can do it all and have breakaway speed. All of our issues would be solved
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:47 pm to
then ya gotta look at it trying to see the club's point of view versus ours. PT23 has been a vital cog and he still is not overpaid. NFL leading receiver among RBs. The 3 times he has had over 129 carries he has led the team in rushing. I'm guessing he stays just on those factors.

Jenkins is the one I wouldn't mind letting walk. No matter what I think tho, I believe he is more likely to be back. Just hoping it's not overpaid like Harper's extension was.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30139 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:52 pm to
I think ML is a financial genius, but the saints organization as a whole needs to take one page from belichick's book in knowing when to say bye to certain players when its time.
Posted by bonethug0108
Avondale
Member since Mar 2013
12690 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

Just hoping it's not overpaid like Harper's extension was.


Depends what you mean here. Same price as Harper? No way in hell we(or anyone) gives him that much. I blame Weedle and GW more than anyone for Harper's contract. That was the going rate and Williams really liked him.

Now overpaid to how we view him? Possible. If he got more than $2-3 mil a year then I'd call him overpaid.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 6:14 pm to
I think this is the year we need to start looking ahead and getting rid of some players. Starts with Graham. Tag him and trade him for 2 1sts or something amazing. Cut Smith and couple other guys. No restructures. Sign a big FA for offense if money permits it. Use the early part of the draft on offense in efforts to find a true #1 WR, OL, or whatever we miss in FA. We simply can't afford Graham. He needs to go. Sorry. Love you man but you're going to cripple us for a player who barely touches the ball 5-6x a game. Not worth it. He's not in on enough offensive plays to pay him top WR money. Maybe top TE I can see but not top WR. No way in hell he deserves that kind of money from us. Brees touches the ball every play so at least you can make an excuse for his cap figures.

Cut Thomas or Sproles(or both), cut Lance Moore, cut Smith, let Jenkins go, trade Graham. Work from there with whatever draft picks trades you can get done. It's time to get young and hit a homerun through the draft.
This post was edited on 1/30/14 at 6:16 pm
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30139 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 6:44 pm to
Well I thought this was a pretty funny way to look at things...

So a guy on my FB posted this just to get some saints talk. He compares arguably the 'best receivers' in the league and Jimmy and is the contract we give him worth it.

He compares that every player listed is pretty much their team's sole #1 receiver or in Brandon Marshall's case #1a and #1b (argument can also be made for fitz).

The interesting fact is that each #1 WR catches 22-29% of their QB's completions. Jimmy Graham only catches 19.3% of brees' completions and d. thomas only catches 20%.

His argument is that because our offense works on mismatches and multiple weapons similarly to Denver. Paying JG such a large contract is too detrimental to our team's offense in the long run, and we are better off getting a trade for a high 1st and a 2nd good pick.

Jimmy Graham: 19.28% of his QB's completions were to him

Demaryius Thomas: 19.96% of his QB's completions were to him

Larry Fitzgerald: 22.59% of his QB's completions were to him

Calvin Johnson: 22.64% of his QB's completions were to him

Josh Gordon: 22.96% of his QB's completions were to him

Alshon Jeffery: 23.86% of his QB's completions were to him

Dez Bryant: 24.8% of his QB's completions were to him

AJ Green: 26.92% of his QB's completions were to him

Brandon Marshall: 26.81% of his QB's completions were to him

Kendall Wright: 28.66% of his QB's completions were to him

Antonio Brown: 29.18% of his QB's completions were to him

Andre Johnson: 29.38% of his QB's completions were to him

Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49527 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 7:22 pm to
That's a pretty useless stat. You don't need to be catching the ball to make a huge impact, plus Brees has always spread the ball around. Look at the Pats game. They used their best CB and occasional safety help to shut down Graham. That's when it's time for our WRs have to step up and do their job while he makes life easier on them. Colston had one catch for 11 yards. Toon had one for 7. Meachem 0 catches. Stills, the only WR I really care to see on the team next season, had 3/64/1TD. And don't forget that he was playing on one foot for most of the season.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30139 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 7:41 pm to
I thought it was useless as well, it doesn't take into consideration impacts of a player that doesn't show up on a stat sheet.


My question is:
Would you prefer Jimmy Graham @ say 13 million or one of those other receivers @ 13 million.
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49527 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 7:52 pm to
Calvin Johnson would be #1. Graham I think would be #2. Remember, before Graham was injured against NE, he put up:
4/45/1TD
10/178/1TD
9/134/2TD
4/100/2TD
10/135/0TD

I get where the "trade Graham" people are coming from if we get a great offer, but I'd rather see him come back healthy with some WRs and a running that can take the pressure off of him. Would also like to see better playcalling. He became the anti-Ingram later in the season. If he was in, we were passing. Even if he isn't a good run blocker, leave him in there all the time and you'll get more opportunities for mismatches when we do pass it.
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 2/2/14 at 11:53 pm to
The replace-trade Graham idea is worth a lot more message board discussion than probability of getting anywhere near happening. The biggest factor I'm seeing discounted is the difficulty in replacing the production. Graham is the real deal. The best pass catching TE in the NFL. How many players have been drafted to be "the next Jimmy Graham"? You don't ship off a dominate player unless you have a replacement plan in place. Even with plans it can go south. Replacing Revis with #1 CB Miliner is a perfect example. Miliner had a dreadful year.
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