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re: NFL.com: Players that could be "surprise" 1st Round Picks

Posted on 4/15/14 at 10:39 pm to
Posted by KG5989
Das Boot
Member since Oct 2010
16324 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 10:39 pm to
Some people are extremely sensitive about OBJ....

Here is what I think about him:

Hes a solid NFL WR prospect. Is he overrated right now? Yes. But only by 20 spots or so. I dont think hes a top 5 WR in the draft. I think Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Lee, and Matthews are all going to be better than him in the NFL. I think hes more of an early 2nd round type of player.

He tore up the combine, which boosted him a lot. And hes #s were really good this season. 59 catches, 1152 yards and 8 TDs. Looks like great #s. But you need to look at the #s within the #s.

Based on Opponent:
- vs SEC opponents(8 games) : 36 catches, 583 yards, 2 TDs. 16.2YPC vs SEC opponent. Averaged 4.5 catches, 72.9yards, and 0.25 TDs a game vs SEC opponents.

- vs AP Ranked teams : 21 catches, 375 yards, 0 TDs. 17.9YPC

- vs Non Conference opponents: 23 catches, 569 yards, 6 TDs. 24.7 ypc.

When LSU was tied in the game: 8 catches, 155yards, 0 TDs.
When LSU was down by 1-7pts: 13 catches, 265 yards, 0 TDs.

Based on Final Margin:
- 0 - 7 pts: 12 catches, 206 yards, 0 TDs.
- 8 - 14pts: 12 catches, 224 yards, 0 TDs.
- 15+ : 35 catches, 722 yards, 8 TDs.

Based on down:
- 1st down: 27 catches, 586yards, 4 TDs
- 2nd down: 15 cathces, 253 yards, 4 TDs
- 3rd down: 15 cathces, 272 yards, 0 TDs

Stats from November to the bowl game : 11 catches, 143 yards, 0 TDs. In 4 games.

Now, these stats tell me a few things about OBJ. 1st, it tells me he is a legit deep threat / big play guy. Averaged over 16ypc vs SEC opponents and around 18ypc vs ranked opponents. But, it also tells me that he wasnt nearly as effective vs legit opponents and accumulated most of his stats vs bad teams. In close games, he wasnt that effective. He was great in blowouts, but most of that was against crappy teams. OBJ had 21 catches, 534 yards and 6 TDs in 4 games against UAB, TCU, Furman, and Kent St. Over half his yards, and most of his TDs in those 4 games. And vs TCU, he had just 1catch vs Jason Verrett. When Verrett was on him, he didnt do too much. And he dominated on 1st down. But on 3rd down he wasnt too good. And it tells me that he can disappear for stretches of the season. 11 catches in the final 4 games of the season in college...

I know this isnt a Jarvis vs OBJ thread, but if you look at the stat splits they are almost completely opposites. Jarvis was at his best vs SEC and ranked opponents. He was huge for LSU in close games. And he was absolutely dominant on 3rd downs. He had 28 catches, 474yards, and 6 TDs on 3rd down. Thats ridiculous. His regular season stats were 77 catches, 1193 yards and 10 TDs. A lot of his work came on 3rd downs.

Take it for what its worth. Hope both of them have great and healthy careers. But, i dont think OBJ should be a 1st round pick. Better in shorts and t shirt than he is with pads on. And he struggles vs a man press bump and run CB, which is what most of the NFL does.
Posted by Sho Nuff
Oahu
Member since Feb 2009
11917 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 10:43 pm to
quote:

I'm now done with you.


quote:

hindsight

The basis of our "debate". Bama didn't deserve shite. Using hindsight is ridiculous. And you're still showing bias. Team A clearly has everything going on for it over Team B. You take Team B. How can someone who isn't biased take Team B over Team A when the BcS has clearly used those metrics for SEC team after SEC team? Because thy name was Bama.
quote:

Having seen the result, it's hard to argue that 9-6 and then 0-20 is better than 6-9,20-0. I feel like when we lost by 20 and didn't cross the 50 for 95 percent of the game we lost any legitimate ability to bitch about anything save us not being ready to play.


Sadly, I agree. But again, hindsight. Bama should not have been there in the first place. This is where you and my disconnect is.
quote:

It wasn't fair


quote:

but the end did justify the flawed means to me



You don't see how asinine hindsight is in sports? You don't see how going 1-1, one of them being the SEC Champ while the other sat home doesn't exactly lead to a "deserving" champion? They should have been in the Sugar. They lost at home when it was supposed to be the GoTC. Why a mulligan when there was another team with all of the edge over Bama except a "good" loss? Did you think Bama should go over Okie before 1/9? How?

Even though I put question marks, you really don't have to answer back. We'll never agree, but using hindsight to justify your position?

Posted by Sho Nuff
Oahu
Member since Feb 2009
11917 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 10:47 pm to
quote:

I know this isnt a Jarvis vs OBJ thread, but if you look at the stat splits they are almost completely opposites. Jarvis was at his best vs SEC and ranked opponents. He was huge for LSU in close games. And he was absolutely dominant on 3rd downs. He had 28 catches, 474yards, and 6 TDs on 3rd down. Thats ridiculous. His regular season stats were 77 catches, 1193 yards and 10 TDs. A lot of his work came on 3rd downs.

If it came down to the Saints taking OBJ at #27 or being able to get Jarvis in the 2nd and a great CB in the 1st, I'd rather Juice. But I do like the receivers you mentioned over OBJ as well. Lee is the only one I'm not totally sold on.
This post was edited on 4/15/14 at 11:08 pm
Posted by St Augustine
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
64198 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 10:51 pm to
Holy shite what a post.
Posted by whodatfan
Member since Mar 2008
21329 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 10:58 pm to
You would think so hater.
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278380 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 10:58 pm to
I honestly dont see what red flags we're looking at here.


considering

1 the SEC is tough defensively
2 we didn't throw the ball much this season
3 he played next to another great WR who ate into catches


the 4 games at the end of the season, we ran the ball down the throats of ARK, A&M and Iowa. In the Iowa game, Jennings was terrible, completing 7 passes and missing a ton of WR's.


Besides ARK, you really can't say he performed poorly in any other game within how those particular games played out. Did he have some average games? Yea. All WR's do, especially in the SEC.


And especially when your QB only has 296 TOTAL attempts on the year. Take a look at the other team's with top WRs, they are throwing the ball 120-300 more times over the course of the season. and most of these guys don't have Landry playing next to him.

So i think his numbers stand up well for a team that threw it 292 times total all season. A team that also feature an elite RB, and another elite WR to share touches with.

Posted by St Augustine
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
64198 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 11:04 pm to
The entire argument was always hindsight
Prior to the NC game I was on the godforsaken sec rant saying the same things to Bama fans you are now saying to me.

I don't think it was ever fair, but there have been dozens of unfair scenarios in the past. Since message boards and cfb itself are based so much in subjectivity, I think hindsight is obviously a useful tool. You are absolutely correct when bringing up that osu likely had the more successful season on paper. I argued the same thing at one point. However, if I was being honest with myself a huge part the passion behind my argument was the fact that I felt Bama had clearly superior athletes to osu and would be a harder out for us.

Prior to the selection of the now infamous title if you put a gun to my head and told me my life depended on my ability to pick winner of Bama vs osu I would've picked Bama 10/10 times. I think many would say the same if they were being honest. It's always just been impossible for me to see us as a deserving champ even if we would've played osu and beat them, because Bama shattered the notion that we were the best team with that performance in the dome. If it would've been then I'd be way more on your side of things.

Sorry I was a dick earlier, just stop calling a fricking Bama fan.
This post was edited on 4/15/14 at 11:14 pm
Posted by Sho Nuff
Oahu
Member since Feb 2009
11917 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 11:14 pm to
quote:

Prior to the NC game I was on the godforsaken sec rant saying the same things to Bama fans you are now saying to me.


Holy frick, you coulda just said this to me last time and we would've been friends
quote:

You are absolutely correct when bringing up that osu likely had the more successful season on paper. I argued the same thing at one point.

When we argued this a while back you never said any of this stuff. You were just adamant, "Bama is the bestus". I don't understand why you are surprised I called you a Bama fan.
quote:

Prior to the selection of the now infamous title if you put a gun to my head and told me my life depended on my ability to pick winner of Bama vs osu I would've picked Bama 10/10 times. I think many would say the same if they were being honest.


Who really knows, but that's certainly very possible. But that was never my point OR the point of the BcS before this sham. It's about getting to the NC. Bama should not have gone based on the metrics used before 2011 and even after.

quote:

Sorry I was a dick earlier, just stop calling a fricking Bama fan.

Well, stop sucking Bama's... ok, kidding
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278380 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 11:15 pm to
y'all need to GTFO this thread with this shite
Posted by KG5989
Das Boot
Member since Oct 2010
16324 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 11:21 pm to
In that 4 game stretch, Jarvis still managed to get 19 catches for 312yards and 2 TDs. Yea we ran the ball a lot during that stretch, but its not like we just flat out didnt throw the ball.

And Im not saying that OBJ stats are bad at all. Youre using total pass attempts to show that we didnt pass it that much, like I said OBJ didnt have good stats. His total stats are awesome.

Never said anything about OBJ having red flags. He doesnt. I just think hes a bit overrated by 25spots or so. And started to climb the draft boards after the season was over, based on what he did in shorts and T shirt.

People say OBJs stats and always say "in the SEC" at the end of it. When, in fact, he didnt do all that against the SEC. Its almost the complete opposite. Only scored 2 TDs vs SEC opponent, and both were in the Miss St game, where Jarvis was injured. And Miss St sucked on D. Scored 0 TDs vs AP ranked teams. And had 6 out of his 8 TDs vs non conference opponents that we dominated. All of his TDs came against horrible defensive teams, and horrible teams in general.

And of course I agree that the SEC is a tough conference to play in. But, what do you think the NFL is going to be like? OBJ did most of his damage vs guys that wont be in the NFL. Against legit SEC D, he struggled to get open and wasnt nearly as effective. Thats what the NFL is going to be like for him.

And yeah all players have games where they are average... yet OBJ only had 2 games where he was good vs SEC teams. UGA scorefest game and Miss St game where Jarvis was injured. Other than that, he was average vs SEC teams.

I dont think he sucks or anything like that. But I also dont think hes a 1st round pick or an elite WR at the next level. I think he could be a solid #2 in the league.
This post was edited on 4/15/14 at 11:30 pm
Posted by St Augustine
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
64198 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 11:25 pm to
Relax gramps. We hashed it out. Sorry for the hijack.

Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278380 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 11:31 pm to
Again, what games did he play sub par in besides ARK?

Im not sure TDs are indicative on how well or how poorly he played against any teams, SEC or not.


he played well against UGA, Ole Miss, A&M, Auburn and Florida, considering how all those games played out. He didn't catch a TD in any of them.

a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson had 5TDs his 1 year at Tenn and only caught 46 balls.

Alshon Jeffery had just one 100yd game his last year at USC.

AJ Green never had a 1000k season at UGA.

The SEC is tough, what did these guys think the NFL would be like? They seem to be making it. The numbers don't always add up, but when you turn on the tape it shows what a player can do.
Posted by LSUFreek
Greater New Orleans
Member since Jan 2007
14776 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 11:49 pm to
With Graham, Colston, Stills & Thomas, OBJ would more than suffice as the 3rd, 4th or even 5th option.

Plus we desperately need a PR especially now that the underwhelming PR Sproles is gone. So I wouldn't cry over an OBJ selection in the least.

But I'm still convinced this defense is not as dominating as Seattle's was last year, and the 'Hawks won it all with arguably a mediocre offense that found itself starting in the opponents red zone.

So put me down for a legit CB as insurance against injury or to replace a weak link DB while training to man an island in a year or two. A sure-tackling coverage OLB wouldn't hurt either, if I could have a wish list.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72010 posts
Posted on 4/15/14 at 11:57 pm to
quote:

a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson had 5TDs his 1 year at Tenn and only caught 46 balls.

Alshon Jeffery had just one 100yd game his last year at USC.

AJ Green never had a 1000k season at UGA.

The SEC is tough, what did these guys think the NFL would be like? They seem to be making it. The numbers don't always add up, but when you turn on the tape it shows what a player can do.


Posted by KG5989
Das Boot
Member since Oct 2010
16324 posts
Posted on 4/16/14 at 12:24 am to
Patterson played 1 season legit college football. Thats like being a freshman all over again. And everyone in the NFL knew that he had all the talent in the world, but very raw because of having 1 season of big time football.

AJ Green only played 1 full season in college his freshman year, where he had 963 yards and 8 TDs. He played 10 games his sophomore season and 9 games his JR season.

Alshon Jeffery also had 88 catches, 1517yards and 9 TDs his sophomore season. And i could be mistaken, but Im pretty sure he was in Spurriers dog house big time his last year there? And was out of shape his JR season there. And he fell in the draft because of it.

I never said TDs are indicative of how a guy played. And I think that you think Im making it all about stats. And im not. My biggest issue is that he struggled in the biggest games of the year for us, and played average to sub par below the good D we faced. And there are ways to impact a game without accumulating stats. Jarvis did it all the time with his run blocking ability and attitude on the field.

During the games of Auburn, UF, Bama, TAMU, and Arky OBJ was average or below average. In those 5 games combined, he had a total of 16 catches for 218 yards with 0 TDs with 13.6ypc. Thats 5 out of the 13 games we played that he was average to below average. Its not like those were crappy throw away games either. Thats the heart of our SEC schedule. And, as a team, LSU threw for 1,047 yards during that span. Iowa game is a wash due to the QB spot.

He had 36 catches, 831 yards, and all 8 of his TDs in 6 games vs TCU, UAB, Kent St, UGA, Miss St, and Furman. The other 7 games, better quality opponent, he had 23 catches for 321yards and 0 TDs. Thats an average of 3.2 catches, 45.8 yards (13.9ypc), and 0 TDs over 7 games. Like I said, he was absolutely dominant against weak defenses, and was below average against a quality defense. And I wouldnt say teams like TAMU and Arky had "quality defenses".

quote:

The numbers don't always add up, but when you turn on the tape it shows what a player can do.
I completely agree with this. And when you turn the tape on for OBJ, hes dominating no name guys and struggling against quality opponents.

I dont think hes garbage, at all. I think he could be a solid #2 at the NFL. Similar to a guy like Golden Tate and Chris Givens.
This post was edited on 4/16/14 at 12:40 am
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
33742 posts
Posted on 4/16/14 at 12:31 am to
I wouldn't even bother mentioning the Auburn game as it pertains to OBJ.

LSU pounded the frick out of Auburn's defense with Jeremy Hill.

by the way.. some of those defenses in the SEC weren't as good this past season IMO.

didn't watch as many games as usual but I just remember thinking they weren't as tough.

bash away.

Posted by KG5989
Das Boot
Member since Oct 2010
16324 posts
Posted on 4/16/14 at 12:35 am to
The Auburn game was his best game out of those games
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
33742 posts
Posted on 4/16/14 at 12:38 am to
quote:

The Auburn game was his best game out of those games




well there you have it.

I told you I didn't watch as many SEC games this year. I tried to watch a little more than just the SEC.
Posted by KG5989
Das Boot
Member since Oct 2010
16324 posts
Posted on 4/16/14 at 12:42 am to


And LSU was running the ball with Hill a lot. But, that was his best game out of that group... 5 catches for 59 yards.
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
33742 posts
Posted on 4/16/14 at 12:49 am to
did you think the SEC was a top heavy conference in defense like usual?

Florida had a good D but had an awful offense.

Texas A&M had a good offense, bad defense.

Alabama had a good D for the most part. Got carved up by A&M and Auburn though, plus LSU gave them trouble for about 3 quarters?

Auburn's D didn't really blow anyone away all year. Although they seemed to make a helluva of an effort in the Title Game vs. FSU.

Georgia had a young defense. Had to replace Jarvis Jones, Ogletree, John Jenkins.

South Carolina had a good defense I guess?

Missouri's looked alright until Auburn bent them over in the SEC Championship...
This post was edited on 4/16/14 at 12:55 am
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