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Posted on 4/2/24 at 10:40 am to bengalmd
quote:
The “dumbasses” are much more in tune with reality than you are, unfortunately.
The point i'm making is that while many think we aren't beating good teams, neither is anyone else, and we're actually a bit better than most of the other teams in the league outside of the top tier teams.
The Suns just lost to the Spurs. The Kings just lost to the Wizards. It's a long season full of ups and downs, and over this long season we have been better than most teams against teams with a winning record. That's the point.
quote:
Dallas would absolutely smoke the Pels in a 7 game series.
I do'nt disagree. The Suns would too, and if i'm honest, the Lakers and Warriors probably would beat us in a 7 game series as well.
hell with how we play in the clutch, there's probably 20 teams that would stand a good to great chance at beating us in a playoff series.
Outside of the Wizards and Pistons, we are by far the worst team in the clutch, and that is a recipe for a first round exit regardless of who we play.
I've been saying for quite some time that it really doesn't matter much what we do here in the regular season. We are a team that is expected to make the playoffs now, and what you do in the playoffs is what matters now, and that's how you build your team in the offseason, to win in the playoffs, not to win 50 games in the regular season and bow out in the first round.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 11:13 am to shel311
quote:
Would be tough to see how that arrives at 20%, but not sure if you just made it up on the fly or saw somewhere where above 20% was actually a thing.
I dont' know where the number came from either, but it sounds about right.
There's a very good chance we end up at 7 right now. I don't know where those 85% numbers to finish top 6 are comign from, but they are vastly overrating the Suns tough schedule. The Suns have 7 games left and i can guarantee you they are treating it like a 7 game playoff series. They'll very likely go 4-3. No one would be surprised if we went 3-4 to close the season out, and that's probably the expectation at this point. The predictor expects our games against the Lakers and Warriors to be victories, when in actuality we'll be underdogs in them.
another big issue we have is it looks like the Lakers might actually pass up the Kings for 8th. Kings have a tough schedule to close the season out, and if they lose tonight to the Clips they are just a game ahead of the Lakers although they do hold the tie breaker wiht them, But the Kings finishing 3-4 would be highly likely. Lakers would need to finish 5-2, but with their schedule, that's very doable.
So if we finish 7th, and have to play the Lakers in the 7/8 game, and if we lose have to play the Warriors to make the playoffs, I don't like our chances at all. Besides the fact that both of those teams have much better closers than us, the league will absolutely want them to beat us to get into the playoffs. And we all know how we perform in big games at home.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 11:52 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:What % in your opinion?
There's a very good chance we end up at 7 right now. I
quote:We're 1 game up and have the easier schedule. Odds are still in our favor to land at 6.
I don't know where those 85% numbers to finish top 6 are comign from, but they are vastly overrating the Suns tough schedule. The Suns have 7 games left and i can guarantee you they are treating it like a 7 game playoff series
I don't get how people are "vastly overrating" the Suns schedule when it's the 2nd toughest closing schedule in the last 30 years lol. They currently have the #1 remaining SOS and Pels 21st. Even if some of those Pels games are Lakers and Warriors, there's no argument that can be made to say our schedule is anywhere near as tough as Phoenix, it's really not close.
quote:No one would be surprised if we went 4-3 and Phoenix went 3-4, so I don't really get the significance of this
They'll very likely go 4-3. No one would be surprised if we went 3-4 to close the season out,
quote:We'll be favored against the Lakers as it's home, dogs against GS as I believe it's on the road.
The predictor expects our games against the Lakers and Warriors to be victories, when in actuality we'll be underdogs in them.
20% is crazy high considering we have to dip to the play in AND likely lose 2 home games in a row, 1 of which we'd likely be a pretty decent favorite in(Sacramento)
This post was edited on 4/2/24 at 11:56 am
Posted on 4/2/24 at 11:53 am to 50_Tiger
Whatever happens they CAN NOT run it back again next season. Will not end well with everyone else retooling and grizz getting healthy.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 12:47 pm to shel311
quote:
We're 1 game up and have the easier schedule. Odds are still in our favor to land at 6.
maybe based on strictly metrics, but these predictors don't factor in how a team is playing rihgt now, or who's hurt. It thinks the Knicks team we beat the crap out of a month ago was a really good team, when in actuality they rostered a bottom 8 team in the league that day.
The Spurs have won 4 of their last 8, and had 2nd half leads in 3 of those 4 losses. Sure they aren't that good, but they are actually playing pretty decent right now.
These predecitors shoudl always be taken with a grain of salt. The win Dallas just had over Houston was a lot more impressive than any win any team had over them in January and February, but the metrics wouldn't think so.
The Suns will win at least one of the next two against the Cavs and Wolves, who they are 2-0 against this year. Seems highly likely they will beat us. They will beat the Clips one out of two. and they simply need to win one of their last 2 against the Kings (who they've beaten 2-1 when healhty this year) and Wolves (who might be resting)
quote:
I don't get how people are "vastly overrating" the Suns schedule when it's the 2nd toughest closing schedule in the last 30 years lol.
Again, that's just a fun click bait thing to say. Yeah it's hard, no doubt about it, but they can very easily go 4-3 with it, as i pointed out, and sure, they could just as easily go 3-4 against it, but they are healthy, and playing well right now, and that's not something you've been able to say about them all season. No one would be surprised if they won the championship this year. They are not your average 47-48 win team.
They currently have the 6th best odds to win it all at +2200, and OKC is in 5th with +2000 odds. We are sitting at 15th best odds at +6500. Only the Kings have worst odds in the West than us.
quote:
We'll be favored against the Lakers as it's home, dogs against GS as I believe it's on the road.
Do you honestly think we are the favorite to beat the Lakers at home if they are healthy and playing everyone? I"m not talking about what Vegas would put out, what you honestly think?
Posted on 4/2/24 at 12:54 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:Eye test also tells me the Pels have an easier schedule than Phoenix. Again, it's really not that close.
maybe based on strictly metrics, but these predictors don't factor in how a team is playing rihgt now, or who's hurt. It thinks the Knicks team we beat the crap out of a month ago was a really good team, when in actuality they rostered a bottom 8 team in the league that day.
The Spurs have won 4 of their last 8, and had 2nd half leads in 3 of those 4 losses. Sure they aren't that good, but they are actually playing pretty decent right now.
quote:Yes, we'll be the favorite.
Do you honestly think we are the favorite to beat the Lakers at home if they are healthy and playing everyone?
quote:It's probably more likely than not that they'll be locked into the 9 seed on the last game of the season, so there's a decent chance Bron and AD may not even play that game.
"m not talking about what Vegas would put out, what you honestly think?
If it were a legit elimination game, no I certainly would not like our chances, but it's extremely unlikely to be an elimination game, and also likely that the game may not even matter at all for the Lakers.
This post was edited on 4/2/24 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 4/2/24 at 1:12 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
TeddyPadillac
You need to relax
Posted on 4/2/24 at 1:39 pm to Broski
quote:Last night was a huge blow, no doubt. But this is very similar to last season where with about 20 games left it was all doom and gloom and how we'd win 5 of 20 from a lot of posters. And I think we won 12 of those 20.
You need to relax
And we just lost 3 of 4 and we're back at it with we're "likely to go 2-5 to finish the season" and that "we have a better than 20% chance we miss the playoffs", which I can't think of a single realistic way to arrive at above 20% here that we fall to the play in AND lose 2 straight home games. Can it happen? Sure. Above 20% chance it happens? Not even close.
It's just going too far with the doom and gloom realistically speaking.
This post was edited on 4/2/24 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 4/2/24 at 1:42 pm to shel311
"This happened last year so its gotta happen this year, right?"
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