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re: Nerlens Noel
Posted on 9/16/16 at 7:18 pm to Crewz
Posted on 9/16/16 at 7:18 pm to Crewz
quote:
Superstars don't sign their 3rd contract with a team unless that team won a title or is the favorite to do so the following year. And even then, that often isn't enough.
Let's assume George/Butler both become available in successive years. What contending team will have a positional need and/or the flexibility to get them? They won't be going to the Warriors/Spurs/Cavs. The Clippers would be unlikely to be able to clear space as well since they've already unloaded so many future assets.
Both Butler and George will have the same decision AD will have to make, can they do it without a 2nd bonafide star, only they'll have to make that decision first. If they decide no they'll have to seek another star to join. I'm not saying the Pels will be favorites, but if they can get back to being a playoff team they have to be in the conversation, especially if they can keep a healthy Jrue. The roster will be tailor made for a stud SF.
This post was edited on 9/16/16 at 7:19 pm
1
Posted on 9/16/16 at 11:34 pm to Epic Cajun
Dude is actually that good?
Posted on 9/17/16 at 6:49 am to TigerinATL
quote:
What contending team will have a positional need and/or the flexibility to get them?
Everyone has a need for a two way wing who can create and finish efficiently enough on high volume, and also defend multiple positions at an elite level.
1. Bulls/Pacers could trade them if writing is on the wall. Then it's matching salary and assets, not cap space. Depending on when they move them, the market could be absurd
2. Impossible to predict who will be contending (or knocking on that door) 3 years from now. But all the smart teams are aware of their status (Davis too) and are already looking at how to get them if/when they do become available in trade or FA.
3. Impossible to predict what will motivate Butler/George or any other player. $$? Title chances? Organization? Friends? City? Coach? Municipal broadband?
Davis is still a trump card who can single-handedly alter the course of the franchise. But the organization has stink all over it. It is promising that it seems like it is potentially, maybe starting to begin to change- more flexible signings, taking care of Holiday, keeping a draft pick. Still baby steps and still a long way off from attracting top 10-15 players in the league.
Posted on 9/17/16 at 9:08 am to corndeaux
Warriors are set. Cavs and Clips lack flexibility. Spurs would upgrade at PG before SF and a max PG would make them inflexible.
Posted on 9/17/16 at 9:18 am to TigerinATL
Miami would be more appealing. The Lakers by then. The Celtics. I can go on and on. And like the other guy said, every team will go after them if they are still that good, even if they have a young guy like Jaylen Brown or Winslow, etc
Plus this is an undesired market, which admittedly is more of a tiebreaker, that has never added a FA of that caliber - even when they had a superstar everyone wanted to play with before
Look, other people can hope. I'm not gonna try to stop that. Human beings survive by being optimistic in the face of reality. But I would rather just accept the inevitable future and enjoy the last few years I have with a great player, because I have no idea if we will get another one anytime soon
Plus this is an undesired market, which admittedly is more of a tiebreaker, that has never added a FA of that caliber - even when they had a superstar everyone wanted to play with before
Look, other people can hope. I'm not gonna try to stop that. Human beings survive by being optimistic in the face of reality. But I would rather just accept the inevitable future and enjoy the last few years I have with a great player, because I have no idea if we will get another one anytime soon
Posted on 9/17/16 at 10:09 am to Crewz
This whole undesirable market gets way too much play still. San Antonio, Cleveland, and Oakland are just a few of the locations to land stars for different reasons. You have to win. Put a good enough team around AD, and guys would gladly come to NO. We haven't done that.
Posted on 9/17/16 at 10:25 am to Jon1798
San Antonio has a culture of winning for 20 years and only after ALL those years did they land a big FA. Cleveland has Lebron. Before him, and after him, they had zero interest from FA's. Golden State has the wealthiest people in America in one local area and ices an athlete hundreds of financial opportunities.
So those are poor comparisons IMO. While I agree that a great team in a smaller market can now land better FA's than a bad team in a huge market, market is still a tiebreaker if both teams are winners
So those are poor comparisons IMO. While I agree that a great team in a smaller market can now land better FA's than a bad team in a huge market, market is still a tiebreaker if both teams are winners
Posted on 9/17/16 at 10:31 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Warriors are set
They were about 40 seconds from having the greatest season of all time and repeating as champs and were still planning to ditch 2 of their starting 5 for Durant. You don't think they'd like to swap Iguodala for George/Butler? :lightyearsahead:
quote:
Cavs and Clips lack flexibility. Spurs would upgrade at PG before SF and a max PG would make them inflexible.
I mean. You're stuck on positions mattering for not only 2 of the most versatile players in the league, but also 2 top 15 guys. I will repeat myself- every team in the league wants as many two way wings as they can get Teams are positioning themselves right now to make offers for those guys and Davis when the time comes.
And you're talking about FA 2-3 years from now, yet acting like the landscape of the league will be the exact same. Along with everyone else, you have no clue what teams will be contenders in 2-3 years, nor what a team's flexibility or appeal will be.
If you need this hope to stay positive about the Pels, have at it. Long wandering in the wasteland of the off-season is almost at an end.
Posted on 9/17/16 at 1:32 pm to corndeaux
This isn't me being hopeful, this is math. You can't add 30% when you already have 3 players making even just 25% each. All the teams I mentioned will already have 3 max players except the Spurs. I would expect the Spurs to replace Tony Parker with a max player sooner than later. Additionally teams like the Cavs and Clippers have committed a lot to role players and aren't exactly flush with the kind of assets it usually takes to move that much money.
Cap escalation combined with an MVP on a ridiculously cheap contract is the main reason KD got to move to the Warriors, those kind of openings don't usually happen. The cap normalizing combined with the top contenders likely already committing to a big 3 means that if George/Butler make it to FA, the very top teams are not who they are likely to be considering. Woj tried to get Presti to do a whole woe is me bit on this on his podcast because of how unusual it is for top FAs to have the opportunity to go to top level teams.
I don't think the Pels will be favorites by any means. I just think the teams we'll be competing against for those FAs won't be the top 4 teams in the league.
Cap escalation combined with an MVP on a ridiculously cheap contract is the main reason KD got to move to the Warriors, those kind of openings don't usually happen. The cap normalizing combined with the top contenders likely already committing to a big 3 means that if George/Butler make it to FA, the very top teams are not who they are likely to be considering. Woj tried to get Presti to do a whole woe is me bit on this on his podcast because of how unusual it is for top FAs to have the opportunity to go to top level teams.
I don't think the Pels will be favorites by any means. I just think the teams we'll be competing against for those FAs won't be the top 4 teams in the league.
This post was edited on 9/17/16 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 9/17/16 at 2:19 pm to TigerinATL
Rather than debate this back and forth - I am curious to get your number.
What percentage chance do you think the Pels have of acquiring somebody as good as PG-13 or Butler before AD's 2nd contract is up?
What percentage chance do you think the Pels have of acquiring somebody as good as PG-13 or Butler before AD's 2nd contract is up?
Posted on 9/17/16 at 2:52 pm to Crewz
Zero on Paul George. Larry Bird doesn't like to lose transactions. If the Pacers don't look good enough to keep him this year I'd expect him to get traded to a team he'll opt in for next offseason. I just don't see the Pels being good enough this year to get in on that conversation.
Butler is on a year later schedule, if the moves Demps made this offseason were good ones and they can keep or comparably replace Jrue I think the Pels will be good enough to be in the conversation for a forced trade or a year later Butler signing with a team.
Also in light of that going back to one of the other branches in this thread, I think you pick Okafor. His rookie deal gives you cap space that Vucevic doesn't.
Holiday/Frazier
Hield/Galloway
??/Hill/QPon
AD/Hill/Jones
Okafor/Asik
Assuming all the new guys live up to expectations, Butler or George make the team instant contenders. I don't know what the odds are that a FA George or forcing trade Butler would choose the Pels over other teams, but I have to think the biggest negative against the team is being in the Western Conference and having 3 contention level teams to go through instead of 1-2.
Butler is on a year later schedule, if the moves Demps made this offseason were good ones and they can keep or comparably replace Jrue I think the Pels will be good enough to be in the conversation for a forced trade or a year later Butler signing with a team.
Also in light of that going back to one of the other branches in this thread, I think you pick Okafor. His rookie deal gives you cap space that Vucevic doesn't.
Holiday/Frazier
Hield/Galloway
??/Hill/QPon
AD/Hill/Jones
Okafor/Asik
Assuming all the new guys live up to expectations, Butler or George make the team instant contenders. I don't know what the odds are that a FA George or forcing trade Butler would choose the Pels over other teams, but I have to think the biggest negative against the team is being in the Western Conference and having 3 contention level teams to go through instead of 1-2.
Posted on 9/17/16 at 9:24 pm to TigerinATL
I traded the 1st, Reke, and Ajinca for Noel in 2K17 and I am not happy with the results so far. Honestly, I prefer playing Terrance Jones at center. If he and Quincy return to form, I honestly think PG could be the biggest need on this team.
Gonna try to flip Noel for Eric Bledsoe and turn injuries off!
Gonna try to flip Noel for Eric Bledsoe and turn injuries off!
Posted on 9/18/16 at 8:13 am to TigerinATL
Analyzing the future of the league years from now with certainty via a static snapshot of today is a staggering perspective
Makes sense for Pels fans, I guess. We have no experience with a FO that thinks and acts beyond the present
Pretty much the entire league is between where the Pels are and the title contenders. The Pels can't compete with mere playoff teams for FA right now.
Your entire thesis rests on the Pels improving and gaining financial flexibility, but ignores anyone else doing the same between now and 2018/19
Honestly, I'd actually bet neither the Spurs nor the Clippers will be a top 4 team in 2-3 years.
Makes sense for Pels fans, I guess. We have no experience with a FO that thinks and acts beyond the present
quote:
I just think the teams we'll be competing against for those FAs won't be the top 4 teams in the league.
Pretty much the entire league is between where the Pels are and the title contenders. The Pels can't compete with mere playoff teams for FA right now.
Your entire thesis rests on the Pels improving and gaining financial flexibility, but ignores anyone else doing the same between now and 2018/19
Honestly, I'd actually bet neither the Spurs nor the Clippers will be a top 4 team in 2-3 years.
Posted on 9/18/16 at 8:46 am to corndeaux
But whoever the top 4 teams are likely will have 3 max contracts. MM said superstars always go to the top teams but that's usually not true. Melo went to the Knicks. Dwight went to the declining Lakers then Rockets. CP3 went to the Clippers. Even Aldridge chose between Phoenix, and a team that didn't make it out of the 1st round the year before. The Spurs are a bit of an oddity in that one of their on court advantages in having Pop doesn't count towards the cap.
And I really don't think I'm being homerish here. All I'm saying is that if the moves Demps made this offseason were all good moves that positions the Pels to become a playoff team again and be in the conversation when these stars pick new teams. That's not saying much. Phoenix came close enough to Aldridge that they made some stupid moves to close the deal.
And I really don't think I'm being homerish here. All I'm saying is that if the moves Demps made this offseason were all good moves that positions the Pels to become a playoff team again and be in the conversation when these stars pick new teams. That's not saying much. Phoenix came close enough to Aldridge that they made some stupid moves to close the deal.
This post was edited on 9/18/16 at 9:00 am
Posted on 9/18/16 at 11:40 am to TigerinATL
Point me to the line where I said "superstars always go to the top teams"
I expect misrepresentation of arguments from the lesser posters. But not from you man. Not from you :(
I expect misrepresentation of arguments from the lesser posters. But not from you man. Not from you :(
Posted on 9/18/16 at 11:44 am to TigerinATL
And yes, you are being homerish. Sorry. If you were a fan of literally any other team and someone made you list the top 10 teams that Butler or George could go to in a few years, New Orleans would not be on your list.
But yes, if literally everything goes right - Buddy becomes a top 5 SG, Hill becomes Demarre Carroll, Moore becomes A top tier reserve guard, Jones returns to form and is retained, and on and on, then this team could be good in a few years and have an MVP caliber player in AD. And yes, they will have a chance
But the arguments for Minny, Miami, the Lakers, and several other teams landing a major FA before the Pels ever do are MUCH easier to make
But yes, if literally everything goes right - Buddy becomes a top 5 SG, Hill becomes Demarre Carroll, Moore becomes A top tier reserve guard, Jones returns to form and is retained, and on and on, then this team could be good in a few years and have an MVP caliber player in AD. And yes, they will have a chance
But the arguments for Minny, Miami, the Lakers, and several other teams landing a major FA before the Pels ever do are MUCH easier to make
Posted on 9/18/16 at 12:29 pm to Crewz
quote:
Point me to the line where I said "superstars always go to the top teams"
I already did, it's kind of how we went this far down this particular rabbit hole.
quote:
Superstars don't sign their 3rd contract with a team unless that team won a title or is the favorite to do so the following year. And even then, that often isn't enough.
quote:
And yes, you are being homerish. Sorry. If you were a fan of literally any other team and someone made you list the top 10 teams that Butler or George could go to in a few years, New Orleans would not be on your list.
New Orleans at this moment no, but if you project what I said needs to happen, the moves this offseason need to have been good moves and you keep Jrue, you've got a quasi All Star PG in Jrue, and MVP candidate that doesn't need the ball in AD, a good starter possibly projecting to a quasi All Star in Hield, and some decent depth.
You and corndeaux are reacting like I'm saying it's a lock. All I'm saying is that if the mini rebuild they started this year goes well they'll be able to get in the conversation. They'll be a rising playoff team with the most obvious hole for a star being SF. While all teams would like as many 2 way wings as possible, Butler and George are not going to go to a team to take a lesser role like Bosh/Love. Batum chose Charlotte in large part because of the expanded role they gave him. So I really don't think George/Butler would want to go to Utah for instance and split the alpha wing role with Hayward. Even with a potentially max pay level PG in Jrue and an MVP candidate in AD, the Pels would still be able to sell guys like Butler and George significant roles in the offense.
quote:
But the arguments for Minny, Miami, the Lakers, and several other teams landing a major FA before the Pels ever do are MUCH easier to make
How does me making my argument that the Pels can get into the running discredit those other teams? I'm not saying Pels = #5 team, but that's what I feel like y'all think I'm saying.
This post was edited on 9/18/16 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 9/18/16 at 1:30 pm to TigerinATL
You clearly misread. I said that a guy doesn't sign his 3rd contract if HIS CURRENT team isn't a contender. And that was the case for Melo and Dwight.
You are a smart guy, but you misread and/or misunderstood. It's okay, we all make mistakes. Curious to see if you are the type to admit it though. I'll be waiting.
You are a smart guy, but you misread and/or misunderstood. It's okay, we all make mistakes. Curious to see if you are the type to admit it though. I'll be waiting.
Posted on 9/18/16 at 1:35 pm to TigerinATL
And BTW- don't say things like we are "acting like you are saying this or that"
I gave you a chance to give a clear percentage chance on them landing a guy of that caliber before AD leaves and you danced around it for 3 paragraphs
Example- I would put that number at 1-2 percent. You? It sounds like you think that everything needs to break right for that to happen. Okay, then what are the odds that everything breaks right (for a franchise where things always break wrong) in your mind? Give me a number, because we might not even disagree here.
I gave you a chance to give a clear percentage chance on them landing a guy of that caliber before AD leaves and you danced around it for 3 paragraphs
Example- I would put that number at 1-2 percent. You? It sounds like you think that everything needs to break right for that to happen. Okay, then what are the odds that everything breaks right (for a franchise where things always break wrong) in your mind? Give me a number, because we might not even disagree here.
Posted on 9/18/16 at 2:00 pm to Crewz
We're clearly not on the same page even if we agree so me saying how I feel y'all are reacting to what I posted is feedback to help us get on the same page.
As far as odds I can't give you any because I have no clue how to handicap guys like Hield and Hill. the odds are low and the most important dice have already been cast. If Hield is a stud and Hill gets in the ballpark of an Ariza/Crowder I think they have a pitch they can make.
I also don't know how you handicap Minnesota. Thibs + talent is good. But they already have a ton of wing talent and their PGs can't play offball reducing the potential role of an alpha wing there. Not to mention having a potential budding alpha wing in Wiggins.
As far as odds I can't give you any because I have no clue how to handicap guys like Hield and Hill. the odds are low and the most important dice have already been cast. If Hield is a stud and Hill gets in the ballpark of an Ariza/Crowder I think they have a pitch they can make.
I also don't know how you handicap Minnesota. Thibs + talent is good. But they already have a ton of wing talent and their PGs can't play offball reducing the potential role of an alpha wing there. Not to mention having a potential budding alpha wing in Wiggins.
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