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TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
37966 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection

quote:

For some reason, the worst team doesn't end up with number one


The worst team only has a 25% chance of staying #1, that means there is a 75% chance that they won't stay #1.


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Jester
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
17459 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

Do teams with considerably worse records get a better chance at #1, or are they all weighted equal relative to their finish?

I.E. Does it matter if Charlotte finishes with 15 wins or 18 as long as they still have the worst record?



No, chances are based solely on finishing order. There are a total 1000 possible combinations.

250 combinations are assigned to the worst team
199 combos to 2nd worst
156 to 3rd
119 to 4th
88 to 5th
63 to 6th
43 to 7th
28 to 8th
17 to 9th
11 to 10th
8 to 11th
7 to 12th
6 to 13th
5 to 14th

If two teams have the same record, they average the two slots they cover (if two teams tie for 6th, they each get 53 combos).


GumBro Jackson
Auburn Fan
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2011
2177 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
Noel doesn't make much sense to me for the Hornets. He plays the position where the team is already the strongest, and his weaknesses are the same as Davis (i.e. at this point a bit too thin to shift to center). Plus of course he is coming off a big injury and isn't much of an offensive player.

The draft is pretty weak and none of the guys look like sure things, but McLemore looks the closest and if the Hornets get the #1 pick they should take himi. After him there are about five to eight guys who all have lots of positives and negatives. IMO whenever the Hornets pick should choose from whichever of those is left and best fits the needs of the team.


Cap Crunch
USA Fan
Geaux to Hell Ole Miss
Member since Dec 2010
41417 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
I just started playing around with Chad Ford's lottery machine in class and he has us taking Smart with the first pick. Would we take him over McLemore?

Actually, he doesn't have us taking McLemore at all. It looks like he thinks we go Smart, then Porter based on availability
This post was edited on 3/19 at 11:12 am


Suntiger
USA Fan
BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
22195 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

Noel doesn't make much sense to me for the Hornets. He plays the position where the team is already the strongest, and his weaknesses are the same as Davis (i.e. at this point a bit too thin to shift to center).


Serious question:

Isn't Noel considered more of a true defensive center with limited offensive game where Davis is more of a C/PF with a good handle and shot?

Wouldn't an NBA comparison be Noel would be more of a Dwight Howard and Davis would be more of a Tim Duncan?


Jester
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
17459 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

I just started playing around with Chad Ford's lottery machine in class and he has us taking Smart with the first pick. Would we take him over McLemore?

Actually, he doesn't have us taking McLemore at all. It looks like he thinks we go Smart, then Porter based on availability



I've posted this in most threads when Ford's mock machine is brought up. I ran it a bunch of time to determine how he thinks we covet each player:

quote:

Smart
Len
McLemore
Porter

Shabazz

Oladipo

Anthony Bennett

Basically, Noel falls into one of the gaps above, but I haven't been able to hit one that clarifies where he falls.


eta - Finally just hit one where he has us taking Porter over Noel, that cleans it up a bit.
This post was edited on 3/19 at 11:23 am


TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
37966 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
He probably sees McLemore as redundant with Gordon. I am leery of Smart because his shooting is just so much worse than the star guys he supposedly could one day become. Russel Westbrook is projecting quite a bit of improvement, I'm thinking present day John Wall might be closer to his ceiling. That's not terrible but it's also not great.


Cap Crunch
USA Fan
Geaux to Hell Ole Miss
Member since Dec 2010
41417 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
The write up for him that had on there said that he could potentially be a Chauncy Billups

It just seems like we'd draft best player available then trade Gordon if we have to. Speaking of that, if we draft Smart, do we keep Vasquez as a backup or trade him? He can be a very cheap starter so teams would go for him.



Jester - Seems like he has Porter moved up on that list now. Possibly because of our new draft position


Jester
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
17459 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:


Jester - Seems like he has Porter moved up on that list now. Possibly because of our new draft position



You're right. And he's moved Len down. I'm not going through all of that shite again.


Cap Crunch
USA Fan
Geaux to Hell Ole Miss
Member since Dec 2010
41417 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
I mean, that seems to make sense. Only way I see us taking Len is if 3 teams behind us win the lottery and Porter and Smart are already gone


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TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
37966 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

The write up for him that had on there said that he could potentially be a Chauncy Billups


Chauncey has always been not terrible shooting from 3 though. As a freshman CB shot 35% from 3 compared to Smart shooting 29%. Maybe after Ariza and Aminu I'm having trouble seeing shooting as a skill that is easily improved, but especially if we keep Gordon we need a PG capable of playing some off ball.


GumBro Jackson
Auburn Fan
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2011
2177 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

Serious question:

Isn't Noel considered more of a true defensive center with limited offensive game where Davis is more of a C/PF with a good handle and shot?


My understanding is that Noel is that he can go either way (PF or C), but that there is concern about his ability to bang b/c of his lack of weight. To me that just seems to similar to what Davis offers (although you are right, Davis is better on the offensive side).

Don't get me wrong, if the Hornets/Pels are picking at something like #8 and he is still there I think it would be worth grabbing him. I just tink that if they have a choice of some other guys like Smart, Porter, Oladipo, etc that I think they would be better off getting one of them instead.


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Cap Crunch
USA Fan
Geaux to Hell Ole Miss
Member since Dec 2010
41417 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
Nevermind. should have read your whole post
This post was edited on 3/19 at 11:41 am


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MrPackSix
LSU Fan
Lakeview/God's Country
Member since Oct 2009
7963 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
Im definetly down with either Shabazz or Porter

McLemore, Smart, and Noel are my 2nd tier


Jester
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
17459 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

Im definetly down with either Shabazz or Porter

McLemore, Smart, and Noel are my 2nd tier


Switch McLemore and Shabazz


b rod lsu
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
4139 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

quote:

Im definetly down with either Shabazz or Porter

McLemore, Smart, and Noel are my 2nd tier


Switch McLemore and Shabazz



Agreed. The first three in the original OP would be the worst case scenario with NO picking 4. If it would fall that way, I'd be happy with Noel or Olipado, I guess.

As per the other question brought up (NO getting the #1 pick), I'd go McLemore all day. He's the most well-rounded, complete player out there. His ceiling is a more athletic Ray Allen. I'm fully-torqued just thinking about it.


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saintsfan22
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
baton rouge
Member since May 2006
30967 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

Wouldn't an NBA comparison be Noel would be more of a Dwight Howard and Davis would be more of a Tim Duncan?


I'm thinking closer to young Tyson Chandler than Dwight.


Jester
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2006
17459 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
quote:

I'm thinking closer to young Tyson Chandler than Dwight.





Sammobile
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Hollywood South
Member since Jan 2009
20615 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection
I'd be happy with taking:
Oladipo
McLemore
Noel
Porter

I'm meh on Shabazz and Smart

I want no part of Len no matter where we pick


Na Mean
UTEP Fan
This is me yo.
Member since Mar 2013
2954 posts

re: NBADraft.net Hornets lottery selection


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