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Kevin Pelton's model win projection for 22-23 season
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:09 pm
Western Conference
1. Suns 49 wins
2. Nuggets 47.9
3. Pelicans 47.6
4. Grizzlies 46.1
5. Twolves 45.7
6. Clippers 43.6
7. Mavs 43.1
8. Warriors 41.9
9. Lakers 36.8
10. Blazers 36.6
11. Kings 36.5
12. Jazz 34.9
13. Spurs 31.2
14. Thunder 26.9
15. Rockets 26.7
Eastern
1. Celtics 53.9
2. Bucks 49.5
3. 76ers 48.3
4. Raptors 47.4
5. Hawks 46.2
6. Heat 45.9
7. Nets 45.6
8. Cavs 42.9
9. Knicks 41.5
10. Hornets 40.8
11. Wiz 40
12. Bulls 38.1
13. Pacers 38
14. Magic 30.6
15. Pistons 25.7
Important note he used a conservative forecast of minutes for Zion, 1,400, which is like 43 games if he plays 33 mpg.
1. Suns 49 wins
2. Nuggets 47.9
3. Pelicans 47.6
4. Grizzlies 46.1
5. Twolves 45.7
6. Clippers 43.6
7. Mavs 43.1
8. Warriors 41.9
9. Lakers 36.8
10. Blazers 36.6
11. Kings 36.5
12. Jazz 34.9
13. Spurs 31.2
14. Thunder 26.9
15. Rockets 26.7
Eastern
1. Celtics 53.9
2. Bucks 49.5
3. 76ers 48.3
4. Raptors 47.4
5. Hawks 46.2
6. Heat 45.9
7. Nets 45.6
8. Cavs 42.9
9. Knicks 41.5
10. Hornets 40.8
11. Wiz 40
12. Bulls 38.1
13. Pacers 38
14. Magic 30.6
15. Pistons 25.7
Important note he used a conservative forecast of minutes for Zion, 1,400, which is like 43 games if he plays 33 mpg.
12
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:11 pm to saintsfan22
Is there a link discussing this and his assumptions?
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:12 pm to NOSHAU
It's behind ESPN's paywall
Pels comments
Pels comments
quote:
3. New Orleans Pelicans
Average wins: 47.6
My projections are high on the Pelicans' chances of making a leap with a full season of CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr., acquired in February, as well as the healthy return of Zion Williamson. New Orleans played 3.8 points per game better than average with McCollum in the lineup and backed up that performance in a hard-fought opening-round loss against Phoenix. Add in Williamson, conservatively forecast for 1,400 minutes, and the Pelicans could force their way into a crowded West playoff picture.
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:13 pm to NOSHAU
Yeah, I'd be curious why the Clippers and Warriors are so low. Also, why does nobody in the West break 50 wins? There might be enough parity for that but someone always seems to separate.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:15 pm to TigerinATL
I agree
4. Warriors
5. Clippers
6-8 Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Mavs.
Eastern conference looks about right tho.
4. Warriors
5. Clippers
6-8 Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Mavs.
Eastern conference looks about right tho.
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:16 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
I'd be curious why the Clippers and Warriors are so low
It projects more injuries to PG and Kawhi
For the Warriors he basically says they made the projections look stupid last year and he thinks they will again this year.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:17 pm to saintsfan22
The Clippers and Warriors seems very very low.
I can sort of see the Warriors if they catch injury hell with an aging roster...sort of.
But if Kawhi and PG have decent health the Clipshow will be very good.
I can sort of see the Warriors if they catch injury hell with an aging roster...sort of.
But if Kawhi and PG have decent health the Clipshow will be very good.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:18 pm to saintsfan22
What would be considered a standard deviation on these predictions? Maybe 5 games?
On top of that, I wonder why the Warriors’ predicted wins are so off. I know they lost some players but they have substantially the same roster that just won a title.
On top of that, I wonder why the Warriors’ predicted wins are so off. I know they lost some players but they have substantially the same roster that just won a title.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:25 pm to saintsfan22
quote:To give an idea of how conservative that is, if Zion played 60 games that would equate to 23 minutes per game.
Add in Williamson, conservatively forecast for 1,400 minutes
If you think Zion will play 31-32mpg, which I think is about right that would equate to about 43 games played.
Just giving an idea of just how conservative that is, and if Zion plays games/minutes more like he did 2 seasons ago, you can imagine that win project would go up considerably.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 2:34 pm to saintsfan22
I dont see the Suns playing to win the regular season again.
I DO see the Pels attempting to do that.
Same with Denver and the TWolves.
I expect those 3, if healthy, to be chasing regular season wins and would not be shocked if that is the top 3 in the rankings.
Young, hungry, motivated teams with talent tend to be the regular season warriors(no pun intended), while the older, been there vets tend to start pacing themselves int he regular season.
I DO see the Pels attempting to do that.
Same with Denver and the TWolves.
I expect those 3, if healthy, to be chasing regular season wins and would not be shocked if that is the top 3 in the rankings.
Young, hungry, motivated teams with talent tend to be the regular season warriors(no pun intended), while the older, been there vets tend to start pacing themselves int he regular season.
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:20 pm to saintsfan22
love to see it. last week I lobbed some $ on Pels to make playoffs at like -160 and a smaller $ on Pels over 44 wins
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:32 pm to teke184
quote:
why the Warriors’ predicted wins are so off
he's not taking bets. my funny take is he did the other teams first.
only 41 wins were left.
warriors draft pick Patrick baldwin is looking great. a very talented player coming off injury. d green was coming off injury. got him 2nd round. he was meh an entire season. knee ok in year 2. he was important piece from then on. Baldwin is already healed.
warriors #2 pick healthy now.
Vegas will take bets.
they've got gsw with 9 more wins than this guy.
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 3:34 pm to saintsfan22
If your model shows something that hasn't come even remotely close to happening in the last 20 years, maybe you need to get back to the drawing board on how you designed your model.
If your model shows the defending champs, who didn't lose anyone off their team, with a losing record, on top of the fact that your model shows the team with the most wins last year, also not losing anyone of importance off their team winning 15 less games than last year, your model is pointless for anyone to take it seriously.
If your model shows the defending champs, who didn't lose anyone off their team, with a losing record, on top of the fact that your model shows the team with the most wins last year, also not losing anyone of importance off their team winning 15 less games than last year, your model is pointless for anyone to take it seriously.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:00 pm to Spitting Venom
quote:Also, on Bovada the Pels O/U seeding for the playoffs is 7.5.
love to see it. last week I lobbed some $ on Pels to make playoffs at like -160 and a smaller $ on Pels over 44 wins
Want an even better bet? The Lakers are 6.5
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:19 pm to saintsfan22
He explains that projections are on "average health." What's not detailed, but what it likely means, is roster depth matters because it's going to project more for guys further down the depth chart than is realistic. This is backed up by Pelton explaining that some teams will be more lucky and some more unlucky, which itself means some teams will have better players that end up with more minutes than projected (and they'll have better records than projected) and others will be unlucky and have worse records. So by design teams are bunched closer to .500 and then nature will run its course.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 4:42 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
your model shows the defending champs, who didn't lose anyone off their team, with a losing record,
they lost a very good defender (think Alvarado at 6 3 with hops) who was in the short playoff rotation until Dickwad Brooks broke his arm and otto porter who was his best ever (still not up to his draft position) and in the short rotation and I think even started one and got a deal elsewhere.
Klay is probably 95%.
wiseman is healthy.
will be asked to do less.
Patrick Baldwin may be the steal of the draft.
onward.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 5:08 pm to TeddyPadillac
Yea that’s crazy. With a bench featuring Poole, Moody, Iggy, Kuminga, and Wiseman. They are very long and athletic as well as explosive. I don’t understand why any model can have them that low. They have enough talent and depth to overcome injuries and they’ve been managing their stars minutes pretty well. They are still the standard every team hopes to conquer.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 5:37 pm to CelticDog
Get the helm outta here with Gary Payton jr crap affecting the Warriors winning.
The warriors aren’t finishing with a losing record unless Steph misses well more than half the season.
It’s a worthless model of projected wins.
As if only 1 team will surpass 50 wins in the entire league. that didn’t even happen in the last two shortened seasons.
The warriors aren’t finishing with a losing record unless Steph misses well more than half the season.
It’s a worthless model of projected wins.
As if only 1 team will surpass 50 wins in the entire league. that didn’t even happen in the last two shortened seasons.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 5:41 pm to supe12sta12z
My ONLY thought is that defensively, they will likely get worse.
but even still, nah...healthy they're 50+wins easily
but even still, nah...healthy they're 50+wins easily
Posted on 9/29/22 at 9:37 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
Get the helm outta here with Gary Payton jr crap affecting the Warriors winning.
warriors get 60.
I believe I posted that.
I merely replied to the statement they didn't lose anybody. Payton and porter.
they re counting on Moody and kuminga to show up.
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