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re: B is not a fit with Z??
Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:12 am to TotesMcGotes
Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:12 am to TotesMcGotes
quote:
Do you have some data about this?
Really hard to find anything on it. I'm sure if you have one of those pay sites for stats you could pull it up.
What we can see is that Zion set a pick and rolled to the goal a total of 24 times this year. I'm sure he's set more picks than that, but he's only rolled to the goal 24 times this year. Pretty stupid huh. JV did it 163 times, Nance 56 times.
Think about what BI and CJ are seeing when JV sets a pick for them. JV's man and Zion's man are now waiting for them in the paint.
When it's Zion it's no different, b/c his man is already sagging off of him, so he just goes under the pick.
BI (0.95 PPP) and CJ (1.05 PPP) both had a higher points per possession as the ball handler on ball screens than Zion (0.94 PPP) did this year. 1.05 and better is where you want to be if you do it a lot.
They were both higher than Zion (0.97 PPP) on dribble handoffs as well, CJ at 1.07 PPP and BI at 1.17 PPP.
Coming off screens was a bit different. CJ was actually terrible which is surprising at 0.81 PPP, BI was actually really good at 1.2 PPP, and Zion was good at 1.1 PPP. Highest points per possession on the team coming off screens..........Jordan Hawkins at 1.26 PPP
I don't recall where i saw it, but the Zion/Trey pick play had some really high success rate. More so with Zion as the ball handler and Trey setting the pick and finding an open spot for 3. It was forcing Trey's man to help leaving him open, or he wasn't helping enough and Zion was getting his full head of steam to the rim.
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Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:16 am to supe12sta12z
quote:
That's fine but the BI and Z ceiling ain't a championship team
I dont disagree.
It's sad that it took 5 years to figure it out, but i had always said we would find out if these two are capable of getting us a championship (by last year) and if they aren't then one of them has to go, and I think we are at that point and that guy to go should be BI.
But like ATL said, you can't trade BI for some role player like Jarrett Allen.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:18 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
But like ATL said, you can't trade BI for some role player like Jarrett Allen.
If they add other stuff in and in the long run it makes your team better- why not? Sometimes its addition by subtraction.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:23 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
If they add other stuff in and in the long run it makes your team better-
The best piece you get in a trade is often the only piece that makes an impact long term. At a minimum I want to get something like Murray/Okongwu if you trade BI. I'm starting to come around on the idea of BI for KAT even though I've hated the idea of KAT on this team for a long time.
This post was edited on 4/19/24 at 11:25 am
Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:25 am to TigerinATL
quote:
At a minimum I want to get something like Murray/Okongwu if you trade BI.
I like that trade better but Murray seems like the guy ATL wants to keep Im assuming. Also ATL was obsessed with getting Herb at deadline- which im not ok with.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:37 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
I like that trade better but Murray seems like the guy ATL wants to keep Im assuming.
What they want and what the market tells them are 2 different things. Sac was trying to trade Fox for Sabonis and keep Haliburton with us as a middle man. Indy didn't want Fox or our stuff so Sac ended up trading Haliburton for Sabonis and the Pels moved on to CJ.
If Trae is radioactive enough that they don't get any good offers, and they can get something like BI/Nance for Murray/Okongwu and they feel they have to move one of the 2, they are going to go with the best deal. Maybe they take a bit of a discount to get rid of the drama of Trae, but that drama is why nobody is going to beat down their door with good offers.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:40 am to Pels_Yaz
quote:
If they add other stuff in and in the long run it makes your team better- why not? Sometimes its addition by subtraction.
b/c stuff doesn't win a championship.
You HAVE to have two guys who can get buckets in the clutch. I don't want that other guy to be CJ with Zion b/c CJ is not a #2 on a championship team. That's been proven. And Trey doesn't have that in his game. He's a great player and a great fit with Zion, but he's not someone we are going to give the ball to with 7 seconds left and say please get us a good shot by yourself.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 11:52 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
b/c stuff doesn't win a championship.
Extra draft picks and more depth pieces do. Those are easily flipped to further make your team championship caliber. Thats what I meant by stuff.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 12:01 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
But his talent, when he is on the court, can transcend that, so you need players who are willing to adapt to his game.
That's your hope. I'm not convinced. We went from 4 to 6 after BI went down. How are we ignoring that? Zion had opportunities to carry the team to the playoffs and it didn't happen.
All I'm saying is that you may never find pieces that are the right fit next to Zion. We're already in need of a unicorn at center, apparently
This post was edited on 4/19/24 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 4/19/24 at 12:08 pm to Pels_Yaz
quote:
Extra draft picks and more depth pieces do. Those are easily flipped to further make your team championship caliber. Thats what I meant by stuff.
We have a short window to win one.
If we aren't a serious contender before Zion's contract is up, so really the next 4 years, then he's not resigning here, and hell even if we are history tells us he'll probably leave anyway.
We dont' have time for future draft picks to develop, and we have more than enough draft picks right now to add whatever we want.
and as i said, it's fine and dandy to have all these great pieces and what not, but if you dont' have that legit #2 on the team, we aren't going anywhere.
If BI goes out, an equal talent but better fit #2 has to come back.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:08 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
We have a short window to win one. If we aren't a serious contender before Zion's contract is up, so really the next 4 years, then he's not resigning here, and hell even if we are history tells us he'll probably leave anyway. We dont' have time for future draft picks to develop, and we have more than enough draft picks right now to add whatever we want. and as i said, it's fine and dandy to have all these great pieces and what not, but if you dont' have that legit #2 on the team, we aren't going anywhere. If BI goes out, an equal talent but better fit #2 has to come back.
I get everything you’re saying. But Im not really sure Ingrams market is as robust as people want it to be. What exactly is an equal talent? Maybe Dejounte Murray but honestly hes been better than BI in my opinion and much healthier. Its also why knowing Griff he wont trade him- because he wont get that legit #2 like you want as well. Then ask yourself are you ok resigning Ingram to a big deal? Whats a worse situation having Ingram, an injured bad fit, on a huge deal on your team or hes off your team and you’re putting the right pieces and building around Zion?
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:10 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:I don't want CJ as our #2 either, but it was "proven" largely in part because Portland also didn't have a #1.
I don't want that other guy to be CJ with Zion b/c CJ is not a #2 on a championship team. That's been proven
Dame was never a dude who can be a #1 on a title team, I've said that all along.
And while I don't think CJ is good enough to be a #2, the 2 big things here are: 1. Neither is BI. 2. The difference between BI and CJ is soooooo much smaller than I think most Pels posters/fans think. BI is better, but it's pretty darn minimal, really close IMO.
I don't necessarily look at it as you can't trade BI if you don't get a legit #2 back. I look at it as we can trade BI, get better, have a #2 that's not much worse than BI but also have added assets at a position of need(hopefully center) and also the addition by subtraction of BI just not fitting what we want to do.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:17 pm to shel311
quote:
I don't necessarily look at it as you can't trade BI if you don't get a legit #2 back. I look at it as we can trade BI, get better, have a #2 that's not much worse than BI but also have added assets at a position of need(hopefully center) and also the addition by subtraction of BI just not fitting what we want to do.
This exactly. We’ve seen this team without BI beat really good teams. Yes, a lot depends on Zions health and his conditioning but to me that is the pathway to success. I honestly think we wont get a legit number 2 for Ingram in the market. Maybe Dejounte or Mobley; I guess KAT- but his defense sucks and hes always injured.
The addition by substraction is something we cant ignore- it’ll give more minutes to other guys like Trey, Herb, Dyson and Hawkins to develop even more. Not saying that any of them are clearly number two guys - but that possibility remains.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:21 pm to Jester
quote:
Zion is just an oddly shaped piece that makes it harder to find things to fit around him. Zion is the one who causes fit problems across the roster.
Sure, but he's also better than BI. You can't build a team around a dude who is maxed out as the 30th best player in the league.
Zion still has top 10ish potential.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:22 pm to Epic Cajun
quote:Right
Sure, but he's also better than BI. You can't build a team around a dude who is maxed out as the 30th best player in the league.
Zion still has top 10ish potential.
I don't entirely agree with the post you quoted, but even if it's true to that degree, Zion causes the fit problems...ok, but he's your best player, so you make trades to build the roster around him that does fit and does not cause problems across the roster. That's the way forward.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:25 pm to Jester
quote:
That's your hope. I'm not convinced. We went from 4 to 6 after BI went down. How are we ignoring that? Zion had opportunities to carry the team to the playoffs and it didn't happen. All I'm saying is that you may never find pieces that are the right fit next to Zion. We're already in need of a unicorn at center, apparently
Zion honestly the most talented guy on this roster. Yes he gets injured and has immaturity issues- but if he can somehow get through those things- this season showed a lot- he is easily the pathway for this team becoming great. Before he got hurt- he was pouring 40 on lakers with Bron and AD guarding him.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:39 pm to Jester
quote:Pels win % in the 64 games BI played - 59.3%
That's your hope. I'm not convinced. We went from 4 to 6 after BI went down. How are we ignoring that? Zion had opportunities to carry the team to the playoffs and it didn't happen.
Pels win % in the 18 games BI did not play: 61.1%
So yes, we had a better win% on the season when BI did not play.
And also, our win % in the 12 games BI was out was 58.3%, which is ever so slightly below the normal win % when BI did play, so based on the data, the 7-5 record we did go in the 12 games BI was out was likely to be the same exact record we would have gone if he played. There's no data to suggest we would have been better than 7-5 if BI played.
quote:Correct, but 2 things.
All I'm saying is that you may never find pieces that are the right fit next to Zion.
1. That doesn't mean you don't take risks and make moves trying to find that fit
2. Pursuant to #1, we know BI is not the fit, we have enough data to tell us this, so the idea of not making a move to move a dude that doesn't fit because we're concerned we'll get back a dude that doesn't fix should not be a valid reason to not make a move. Especially with a small market team, you have to take big swings. I don't even see it as a big swing, but you get the point.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:47 pm to shel311
quote:
I don't entirely agree with the post you quoted, but even if it's true to that degree, Zion causes the fit problems...ok, but he's your best player, so you make trades to build the roster around him that does fit and does not cause problems across the roster. That's the way forward.
IMO you're always going to have a bit of a fit problem if you have more than one guy in your starting or closing lineup that doesn't shoot 3's. Typically that player is a center, because centers who are good on defense and also shoot 3's are few and far between. Having that player be someone who plays the 4 makes fit a bit tougher, but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't try.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 1:58 pm to shel311
quote:
2. Pursuant to #1, we know BI is not the fit, we have enough data to tell us this, so the idea of not making a move to move a dude that doesn't fit because we're concerned we'll get back a dude that doesn't fix should not be a valid reason to not make a move. Especially with a small market team, you have to take big swings. I don't even see it as a big swing, but you get the point.
Right, what's the opportunity cost? A team that maxes out at losing in the first round?
Posted on 4/19/24 at 2:40 pm to shel311
It is weird in that Zion is the best player, and is the guy that can be a true #1 on a championship team in the future, but building around him is not easy.
The one positive thing i take from these games over the past month were Zion's defense. When he wants to, in a one on one situation, he is tough as frick to get around and get a shot off on. He's got a knack for reaching in and poking the ball at an elite level somehow, but he also is so fricking wide and has quick enough feet to make it extremely difficult for anyone to get around him, and then if you have just the slightest of rim protection to slow the ball carrier down, Zion's sneaking behind to throw his shite into the third row.
But the big fit issue with him isn't so much BI, as it is the center postion. We have to get someone who can shoot, or at least be an elite lob threat. Whoever the center is has to either make his defender stay with him most of the time, or punish them for leaving him open. JV doesn't do that much. Larry's corner 3 has been good enough this year to hurt teams. Imagine KAT hanging out on the 3 point line.
and i agree there isnt a huge difference between CJ and BI. they are both really good players, but in different ways. You can hate the mid range shot all you want, but no one can stop BI from getting that shot off. The problem is he relies on it far too much and the bigger reason is he doesn't hit that shot often enough in the clutch. IF BI had the same shot chart but was closing games like DeRozan is this year, then we wouldn't be bitching about him at all, and instead we'd be argueing he should be an all-star.
I can't look at specific shots in the clutch, but we can look at 4th quarter stats for BI.
He's a terrible 3 point shooter, at 22.5%, but decent at 2's at 52%.
When he has 7 dribbles or more, he actually hits 2's at 62.5%.
CJ's 3 point percentange in the 4th goes up from 43% to 46%, and his 2's stay at 49%.
BI took 3.4 shots per game this year with under 7 seconds left on the shot clock. He was 47% from 2 and 26% from 3.
CJ took 2.8 shots per game this year with under 7 seconds left on the shot clock. He was 55% from 2 and 43% from 3.
I know i say CJ can't be that #2 guy, but those stats suggest he can, but maybe if you have another guy similar to CJ to play the hot hand with, and i'm not talking about Trey, then maybe that could work.
The one positive thing i take from these games over the past month were Zion's defense. When he wants to, in a one on one situation, he is tough as frick to get around and get a shot off on. He's got a knack for reaching in and poking the ball at an elite level somehow, but he also is so fricking wide and has quick enough feet to make it extremely difficult for anyone to get around him, and then if you have just the slightest of rim protection to slow the ball carrier down, Zion's sneaking behind to throw his shite into the third row.
But the big fit issue with him isn't so much BI, as it is the center postion. We have to get someone who can shoot, or at least be an elite lob threat. Whoever the center is has to either make his defender stay with him most of the time, or punish them for leaving him open. JV doesn't do that much. Larry's corner 3 has been good enough this year to hurt teams. Imagine KAT hanging out on the 3 point line.
and i agree there isnt a huge difference between CJ and BI. they are both really good players, but in different ways. You can hate the mid range shot all you want, but no one can stop BI from getting that shot off. The problem is he relies on it far too much and the bigger reason is he doesn't hit that shot often enough in the clutch. IF BI had the same shot chart but was closing games like DeRozan is this year, then we wouldn't be bitching about him at all, and instead we'd be argueing he should be an all-star.
I can't look at specific shots in the clutch, but we can look at 4th quarter stats for BI.
He's a terrible 3 point shooter, at 22.5%, but decent at 2's at 52%.
When he has 7 dribbles or more, he actually hits 2's at 62.5%.
CJ's 3 point percentange in the 4th goes up from 43% to 46%, and his 2's stay at 49%.
BI took 3.4 shots per game this year with under 7 seconds left on the shot clock. He was 47% from 2 and 26% from 3.
CJ took 2.8 shots per game this year with under 7 seconds left on the shot clock. He was 55% from 2 and 43% from 3.
I know i say CJ can't be that #2 guy, but those stats suggest he can, but maybe if you have another guy similar to CJ to play the hot hand with, and i'm not talking about Trey, then maybe that could work.
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