Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine? | TigerDroppings.com
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Spitting Venom
USA Fan
Member since Sep 2013
746 posts

Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?

After THRILLHO posted the Stein article about Asik/Ryno rumors, I started playing with the trade machine.

The actual trade machine is pretty entertaining. It projects how each move will affect each team's record. I'm assuming that the projected changes in wins/losses are based on each traded player's win shares or PER.

I know it's just a game, but it's projections are terrible. For example, with a Ryno for Asik/Parsons trade, the trade machine projects the Pelicans' total wins to decrease by 11, while Houston's total wins are projected to increase by 10.

I started fiddling with some trades just to get a feel for the win/loss analysis. Another example: a 3-way trade between us, H-town, and Golden State.

Pelicans -> IN = Bogut, Barnes, Klay Thomp, Parsons
-> OUT = Ryno, EG
-> Projected: -8 wins

Rockets -> IN = Ryno
-> OUT = Parsons, Asik
-> Projected: +10 wins

Warriors -> IN = EG, Asik
-> OUT = Bogut, Barnes, Thompson
-> Projected: -5 wins

Seems way off to me. -8 wins? +10 for Houston? -5 wins for the Warriors feels reasonable. The others do not.

After this trade, this is the Pelican's lineup:

Jrue, Roberts, Rivers
Klay, Tyreke, Morrow
Parsons, Barnes, Aminu
AD, Amundson
Bogut, Smiht, Withey, Steimsma

Our current roster is 8 wins better than this one?


mattz1122
Houston Fan
Member since Oct 2007
32051 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
quote:

Rockets -> IN = Ryno
-> OUT = Parsons, Asik





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JimmyLoincloth
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metry
Member since Oct 2013
927 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
Spitting Venom throws his own entry into the hat for the Jeff Bower Trade Machinist of the Year Award.


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TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
36903 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
quote:

Our current roster is 8 wins better than this one?


I don't know if they use PER or WS for their projections, but Anderson's advanced stats are off the charts right now. He has a PER of 30.1 and a WinShares per 48 of .270 For comparison LeBron has a PER of 29.1 and a WS/48 of .276


Eman5805
LSU Fan
West Bank
Member since Nov 2010
3820 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
That damn trade machine is the worst invention in this history of mankind.

Right next to the bagpipes.


tigerfan88
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Jan 2008
4151 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
Exactly. If Ryno keeps shooting like this we'll win 50 games. Now he won't bc we've played two terrible teams at home, but still


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Gtothemoney
UNO Fan
Da North Shore
Member since Sep 2012
9878 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
Oh Jesus.


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Spitting Venom
USA Fan
Member since Sep 2013
746 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
I was hoping they were taking an average of his last 30 games for the projections. He isn't listed on the Hollinger player ratings because he hasn't played 500 minutes. I figured they would account for the spike in his PER, but I guess that's expecting too much from a toy like this.

But you're right. They are using this season's statistics only. I checked it out with a few Larry Sanders trades. His PER so far this season is a 1.8. Whichever team picks him up is projected a large decrease in wins.


TthomasJR
New Orleans Saints Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2006
13363 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
No way that Houston would trade Parsons AND Asik


NOLAbaby
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Wherever the Crow Flies
Member since Sep 2013
1217 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
And you guys thought my trade machines were dumb? This is the most ludacris/improbable three team trade of all time. Too many assets. In making realistic trades, less is more, unless you've got a bunch of undesirable players on expirings


ShamelessPel
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
4398 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
GS isn't giving up Thompson. If Houston is shipping out Parsons+Asik for just Ryno, why wouldn't we take Parsons back instead of involving GSW?


Epic Cajun
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Feb 2013
7330 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
I think you guys are missing the point of the thread, it's about the validity of the trade machine projections, not about the specific trade.


PrimetimeDaBoss
Columbia Fan
We call it that BOOT
Member since Oct 2008
3453 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
quote:

Right next to the bagpipes.


Oh you take that back.


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THRILLHO
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2006
38338 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
I think the biggest draw is the ease of checking if salaries work out, plus knowing whether a player can be traded at a given time. The whole wins added/lost thing is kind of just a little "why not" add on.


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brmark70816
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, La
Member since Feb 2011
2273 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
For what it's worth, that is just an awesome trade and I'd kill for that to happen. Getting Thompson, Barnes and Parsons would be epic. Throw in Bogut and we are a top 4 seed, this year. Would never happen, but I admire the effort.


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Spitting Venom
USA Fan
Member since Sep 2013
746 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
quote:

I think you guys are missing the point of the thread, it's about the validity of the trade machine projections, not about the specific trade.



This. Thanks for clarifying. Don't know how my post was so misinterpreted.


Spitting Venom
USA Fan
Member since Sep 2013
746 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
quote:

And you guys thought my trade machines were dumb? This is the most ludacris/improbable three team trade of all time. Too many assets. In making realistic trades, less is more, unless you've got a bunch of undesirable players on expirings





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JimmyLoincloth
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Metry
Member since Oct 2013
927 posts

re: Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
quote:

This. Thanks for clarifying. Don't know how my post was so misinterpreted.



Most of us have a deep hatred of the Trade Machine and can't look past it


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