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Message
Anyone here fool around with ESPN's trade machine?
Posted on 11/21/13 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 11/21/13 at 4:42 pm
After THRILLHO posted the Stein article about Asik/Ryno rumors, I started playing with the trade machine.
The actual trade machine is pretty entertaining. It projects how each move will affect each team's record. I'm assuming that the projected changes in wins/losses are based on each traded player's win shares or PER.
I know it's just a game, but it's projections are terrible. For example, with a Ryno for Asik/Parsons trade, the trade machine projects the Pelicans' total wins to decrease by 11, while Houston's total wins are projected to increase by 10.
I started fiddling with some trades just to get a feel for the win/loss analysis. Another example: a 3-way trade between us, H-town, and Golden State.
Pelicans -> IN = Bogut, Barnes, Klay Thomp, Parsons
-> OUT = Ryno, EG
-> Projected: -8 wins
Rockets -> IN = Ryno
-> OUT = Parsons, Asik
-> Projected: +10 wins
Warriors -> IN = EG, Asik
-> OUT = Bogut, Barnes, Thompson
-> Projected: -5 wins
Seems way off to me. -8 wins? +10 for Houston? -5 wins for the Warriors feels reasonable. The others do not.
After this trade, this is the Pelican's lineup:
Jrue, Roberts, Rivers
Klay, Tyreke, Morrow
Parsons, Barnes, Aminu
AD, Amundson
Bogut, Smiht, Withey, Steimsma
Our current roster is 8 wins better than this one?
The actual trade machine is pretty entertaining. It projects how each move will affect each team's record. I'm assuming that the projected changes in wins/losses are based on each traded player's win shares or PER.
I know it's just a game, but it's projections are terrible. For example, with a Ryno for Asik/Parsons trade, the trade machine projects the Pelicans' total wins to decrease by 11, while Houston's total wins are projected to increase by 10.
I started fiddling with some trades just to get a feel for the win/loss analysis. Another example: a 3-way trade between us, H-town, and Golden State.
Pelicans -> IN = Bogut, Barnes, Klay Thomp, Parsons
-> OUT = Ryno, EG
-> Projected: -8 wins
Rockets -> IN = Ryno
-> OUT = Parsons, Asik
-> Projected: +10 wins
Warriors -> IN = EG, Asik
-> OUT = Bogut, Barnes, Thompson
-> Projected: -5 wins
Seems way off to me. -8 wins? +10 for Houston? -5 wins for the Warriors feels reasonable. The others do not.
After this trade, this is the Pelican's lineup:
Jrue, Roberts, Rivers
Klay, Tyreke, Morrow
Parsons, Barnes, Aminu
AD, Amundson
Bogut, Smiht, Withey, Steimsma
Our current roster is 8 wins better than this one?
7
Posted on 11/21/13 at 4:45 pm to Spitting Venom
quote:
Rockets -> IN = Ryno
-> OUT = Parsons, Asik
Posted on 11/21/13 at 4:45 pm to Spitting Venom
Spitting Venom throws his own entry into the hat for the Jeff Bower Trade Machinist of the Year Award.
Posted on 11/21/13 at 4:48 pm to Spitting Venom
quote:
Our current roster is 8 wins better than this one?
I don't know if they use PER or WS for their projections, but Anderson's advanced stats are off the charts right now. He has a PER of 30.1 and a WinShares per 48 of .270 For comparison LeBron has a PER of 29.1 and a WS/48 of .276
Posted on 11/21/13 at 4:50 pm to Spitting Venom
That damn trade machine is the worst invention in this history of mankind.
Right next to the bagpipes.
Right next to the bagpipes.
Posted on 11/21/13 at 4:55 pm to TigerinATL
Exactly. If Ryno keeps shooting like this we'll win 50 games. Now he won't bc we've played two terrible teams at home, but still
Posted on 11/21/13 at 4:58 pm to Spitting Venom
Oh Jesus. 
Posted on 11/21/13 at 5:03 pm to TigerinATL
I was hoping they were taking an average of his last 30 games for the projections. He isn't listed on the Hollinger player ratings because he hasn't played 500 minutes. I figured they would account for the spike in his PER, but I guess that's expecting too much from a toy like this.
But you're right. They are using this season's statistics only. I checked it out with a few Larry Sanders trades. His PER so far this season is a 1.8. Whichever team picks him up is projected a large decrease in wins.
But you're right. They are using this season's statistics only. I checked it out with a few Larry Sanders trades. His PER so far this season is a 1.8. Whichever team picks him up is projected a large decrease in wins.
Posted on 11/21/13 at 8:13 pm to Spitting Venom
No way that Houston would trade Parsons AND Asik
Posted on 11/21/13 at 8:33 pm to TthomasJR
And you guys thought my trade machines were dumb? This is the most ludacris/improbable three team trade of all time. Too many assets. In making realistic trades, less is more, unless you've got a bunch of undesirable players on expirings
Posted on 11/21/13 at 8:53 pm to NOLAbaby
GS isn't giving up Thompson. If Houston is shipping out Parsons+Asik for just Ryno, why wouldn't we take Parsons back instead of involving GSW?
Posted on 11/21/13 at 8:56 pm to ShamelessPel
I think you guys are missing the point of the thread, it's about the validity of the trade machine projections, not about the specific trade.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 12:00 am to Eman5805
quote:
Right next to the bagpipes.
Oh you take that back.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 12:07 am to Spitting Venom
I think the biggest draw is the ease of checking if salaries work out, plus knowing whether a player can be traded at a given time. The whole wins added/lost thing is kind of just a little "why not" add on.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 12:19 am to Spitting Venom
For what it's worth, that is just an awesome trade and I'd kill for that to happen. Getting Thompson, Barnes and Parsons would be epic. Throw in Bogut and we are a top 4 seed, this year. Would never happen, but I admire the effort.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 12:54 am to Epic Cajun
quote:
I think you guys are missing the point of the thread, it's about the validity of the trade machine projections, not about the specific trade.
This. Thanks for clarifying. Don't know how my post was so misinterpreted.
Posted on 11/22/13 at 12:55 am to NOLAbaby
quote:
And you guys thought my trade machines were dumb? This is the most ludacris/improbable three team trade of all time. Too many assets. In making realistic trades, less is more, unless you've got a bunch of undesirable players on expirings
Posted on 11/22/13 at 10:16 am to Spitting Venom
quote:
This. Thanks for clarifying. Don't know how my post was so misinterpreted.
Most of us have a deep hatred of the Trade Machine and can't look past it
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