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Started By
Message
re: Yahoo Sports: NBA league executives believe the lottery was rigged
Posted on 6/1/12 at 3:44 pm to Unbiased Bama Fan
Posted on 6/1/12 at 3:44 pm to Unbiased Bama Fan
SI.com writer was in the room when the lottery was conducted, and addressed Woj's story already LINK
0
Posted on 6/1/12 at 3:45 pm to Unbiased Bama Fan
quote:
The Hornets feared crossing Stern could cost them not only jobs with the Hornets
So the Hornets were afraid of losing jobs with themselves?
Posted on 6/1/12 at 4:25 pm to Unbiased Bama Fan
This may be the most asinine sports story of the year. Do these conspiracy theorists not understand the magnitude of their accusations.
If the lottery were fixed there is absolutely no way in today's world it would stay a secret. If the lottery was proved to be fixed, everyone involved would be convicted felons and the nba as we know it would cease to exist.
Nevermind, all the witnesses who saw the actual selection happen. It's not as if david stern pulls ping pong balls alone in some secluded place. people are dumb.
/ rant
If the lottery were fixed there is absolutely no way in today's world it would stay a secret. If the lottery was proved to be fixed, everyone involved would be convicted felons and the nba as we know it would cease to exist.
Nevermind, all the witnesses who saw the actual selection happen. It's not as if david stern pulls ping pong balls alone in some secluded place. people are dumb.
/ rant
Posted on 6/1/12 at 4:29 pm to harry coleman beast
Posted on 6/1/12 at 4:29 pm to eyeran
Interesting points there eyeran.
Posted on 6/1/12 at 4:38 pm to Unbiased Bama Fan
So damn butt hurt
Posted on 6/1/12 at 4:39 pm to hg
quote:
So damn butt hurt
Yes. And it makes it 10X worse that after davis this draft class is pretty terrible.
Posted on 6/1/12 at 5:03 pm to Unbiased Bama Fan
You're not going to get much love for this story on this board Bama...it's the Hornets.
If L.A. had just lost Kobe and were in the lottery and won with such slim odds...everyone would cry fix and believe it.
Things just happen to fall in place for Stern.
If L.A. had just lost Kobe and were in the lottery and won with such slim odds...everyone would cry fix and believe it.
Things just happen to fall in place for Stern.
This post was edited on 6/1/12 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 6/1/12 at 5:06 pm to Zamoro10
You don't know shite about how the lottery works, nor have you read anything in this thread, if you think it's rigged.
YOU LOSE! GOOD DAY, SIR!
YOU LOSE! GOOD DAY, SIR!
Posted on 6/1/12 at 7:24 pm to tehchampion140
Anyone claiming this was rigged has either a) no idea how the system works or b) no understanding of probability.
There are 14 balls in the tumbler. They come out 1 at a time until 4 balls are out. There are 24,024 possible combinations of balls. The Bobcats owned 6,006 of those combinations. The Hornets owned 3,340 combinations.
How, pray tell, would the league go about rigging the lottery?
Edit: math was wrong. I did nPr instead of nCr. There are only 1,001 combinations. Still, how could that be rigged?
There are 14 balls in the tumbler. They come out 1 at a time until 4 balls are out. There are 24,024 possible combinations of balls. The Bobcats owned 6,006 of those combinations. The Hornets owned 3,340 combinations.
How, pray tell, would the league go about rigging the lottery?
Edit: math was wrong. I did nPr instead of nCr. There are only 1,001 combinations. Still, how could that be rigged?
This post was edited on 6/1/12 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 6/1/12 at 8:32 pm to TulaneTigerFan
quote:
Woj is terrible
that's a lie and you know it.
Posted on 6/1/12 at 8:47 pm to shuke33
Any team of the top four had a possibility of a conspiracy argument being raised
What is telling is losing Davis probably dooms Charlotte. The draft next year is bleak and if they pass the two and done rule then the 2014 draft could be bleak as well.
What is telling is losing Davis probably dooms Charlotte. The draft next year is bleak and if they pass the two and done rule then the 2014 draft could be bleak as well.
Posted on 6/1/12 at 9:08 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
What is so unbelievable that a team with a roughly 1/9 chance won over a team with a 1/4?
Basketball reasons made it very likely that the Hornets were going to win the lottery.
Posted on 6/1/12 at 9:19 pm to ZTiger87
quote:15% is hardly "very likely"
Basketball reasons made it very likely that the Hornets were going to win the lottery.
Posted on 6/1/12 at 9:25 pm to ZTiger87
Please explain how this can be rigged. I'll wait.
quote:
Ok,let's think about this.
First the basics of how the lottery is conducted
- The lottery drawing is attended by representitives from the league office, representitives of each lottery team and representatives from the accounting firm of Ernst & Young.
- The hopper contains 14 ping pong balls numbered from 1 to 14.
- For 14 ping pong balls there are 1001 possible combinations (regardless of order).
in other words 1,2,3,4 is the same as 4,3,2,1
If you want to do the math here's the calculation: 14/4 * 13/3 * 12/2 * 11/1 = 24,024/24 = 1,001
- 1000 of the possible combinations are assigned to the lottery teams in a weighted fashion. Charlotte received 250 combinations and Houston received 5 combinations.
- The one remaining combination is an "unassigned" or "dead" combination. - Now the actual drawing process
1. The balls are mixed up
2. 4 balls are drawn
3. If the combination drawn is the unassigned/dead number then the balls are placed back in the hopper,remixed and redrawn. 4. The team that holds the selected combination is awarded the #1 pick.
5. All of the balls are placed back in the hopper. Note: all combinations assigned to the winner of the first pick are now unassigned or dead numbers.
6. Balls are remixed and 4 balls are drawn.
7. If the combination drawn is an unassigned/dead number then the balls are placed back in the hopper,remixed and redrawn. This scenario occured at the 2002 Lottery. Houston's combination was drawn for the #1 pick and then another Houston combination was selected for the 2nd pick (necessatating a redraw).
8. Keep drawing until you select an assigned combination.
9. The team that holds the selected combination is assigned the 2nd pick.
10. All of the balls are placed back in the hopper. Note: All combinations assigned to the winner of the first and second pick are now unassigned or dead numbers.If Charlotte and Washington had been selected #1 and #2 then 44.9% of the combinations would have been dead combinations when selecting the 3rd pick.
11. Balls are remixed and 4 balls are drawn.
12. If the combination drawn is an unassigned/dead number then the balls are placed back in the hopper,remixed and redrawn.
13. Keep drawing until you select an assigned combination.
14. The team that holds the selected combination is assigned the 3rd pick.
So,as you can see it's not as simple or dramatic as drawing a ball and declaring who has the pick. They have to remixthe balls after each draw and there's the possibility of having to reselect due to dead numbers. That could be a very tedious process and hardly makes for compelling television. Is it really surprising that they don't show the actual drawing.
- Now the idea of a fix
The whole reason for using 14 balls that are redrawn each time is to minimize the opportunity for fixing the drawing. The same 14 balls are used for each of the 3 picks. This eliminates the opportunity for a "magic" ball that is fixed to come out first. The "frozed envelope" was a popular theory as to how the league rigged the '85 lottery for the Knicks to get Ewing (while still showing the drawing live).
So,let's assume that I can somehow alter 4 of the balls to guarentee that they are selected first. Let's say that I fill them with helium and they are selected on the first drawing. Now those balls are placed back in the hopper for the 2nd pick. So,shouldn't they come up again?
So,let's say that I can somehow manipulate the first pick and not cause the same numbers to come up continually. Whatever I'm doing has to either be able to fool representatives for all of the lottery teams and the Ernst & Young guys or they all have to be in on the fix. That doesn't sound too easy. Either those guys have to be stupid or I now have a conspiracy that involves over 20 people and I'm going to have to count on none of them talking at anytime in the future. In other words the Rockets representative is in on the fixand they are ok with it? charlotte is good with Nola getting Davis? Why?
To get to this point I've been able to somehow manipulate which balls are drawn. I've either fooled everyone in the room or every single one of them is involved in the conspiracy. If I can accomplish all of that then why in the world would the fact that it was shown on TV convince you of anything? David Copperfield and David Blaine have made a living off of using camera tricks to fool audiences. If I can fool all of the people actually in the room then a TV audience isn't going to be a problem.
To me,the idea is pretty far fetched. It's just too complicated to pull off and there's too much risk if caught. The NBA is a multi-billion dollar business and if it were found to be rigging it's lottery then the backlash would be huge. They are going to take that risk to put Anthony Davis in New Orleans? Really?
This post was edited on 6/1/12 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 6/1/12 at 11:13 pm to tehchampion140
quote:
Ok,let's think about this.
First the basics of how the lottery is conducted
- The lottery drawing is attended by representitives from the league office, representitives of each lottery team and representatives from the accounting firm of Ernst & Young.
- The hopper contains 14 ping pong balls numbered from 1 to 14.
- For 14 ping pong balls there are 1001 possible combinations (regardless of order).
in other words 1,2,3,4 is the same as 4,3,2,1
If you want to do the math here's the calculation: 14/4 * 13/3 * 12/2 * 11/1 = 24,024/24 = 1,001
- 1000 of the possible combinations are assigned to the lottery teams in a weighted fashion. Charlotte received 250 combinations and Houston received 5 combinations.
- The one remaining combination is an "unassigned" or "dead" combination. - Now the actual drawing process
1. The balls are mixed up
2. 4 balls are drawn
3. If the combination drawn is the unassigned/dead number then the balls are placed back in the hopper,remixed and redrawn. 4. The team that holds the selected combination is awarded the #1 pick.
5. All of the balls are placed back in the hopper. Note: all combinations assigned to the winner of the first pick are now unassigned or dead numbers.
6. Balls are remixed and 4 balls are drawn.
7. If the combination drawn is an unassigned/dead number then the balls are placed back in the hopper,remixed and redrawn. This scenario occured at the 2002 Lottery. Houston's combination was drawn for the #1 pick and then another Houston combination was selected for the 2nd pick (necessatating a redraw).
8. Keep drawing until you select an assigned combination.
9. The team that holds the selected combination is assigned the 2nd pick.
10. All of the balls are placed back in the hopper. Note: All combinations assigned to the winner of the first and second pick are now unassigned or dead numbers.If Charlotte and Washington had been selected #1 and #2 then 44.9% of the combinations would have been dead combinations when selecting the 3rd pick.
11. Balls are remixed and 4 balls are drawn.
12. If the combination drawn is an unassigned/dead number then the balls are placed back in the hopper,remixed and redrawn.
13. Keep drawing until you select an assigned combination.
14. The team that holds the selected combination is assigned the 3rd pick.
So,as you can see it's not as simple or dramatic as drawing a ball and declaring who has the pick. They have to remixthe balls after each draw and there's the possibility of having to reselect due to dead numbers. That could be a very tedious process and hardly makes for compelling television. Is it really surprising that they don't show the actual drawing.
- Now the idea of a fix
The whole reason for using 14 balls that are redrawn each time is to minimize the opportunity for fixing the drawing. The same 14 balls are used for each of the 3 picks. This eliminates the opportunity for a "magic" ball that is fixed to come out first. The "frozed envelope" was a popular theory as to how the league rigged the '85 lottery for the Knicks to get Ewing (while still showing the drawing live).
So,let's assume that I can somehow alter 4 of the balls to guarentee that they are selected first. Let's say that I fill them with helium and they are selected on the first drawing. Now those balls are placed back in the hopper for the 2nd pick. So,shouldn't they come up again?
So,let's say that I can somehow manipulate the first pick and not cause the same numbers to come up continually. Whatever I'm doing has to either be able to fool representatives for all of the lottery teams and the Ernst & Young guys or they all have to be in on the fix. That doesn't sound too easy. Either those guys have to be stupid or I now have a conspiracy that involves over 20 people and I'm going to have to count on none of them talking at anytime in the future. In other words the Rockets representative is in on the fixand they are ok with it? charlotte is good with Nola getting Davis? Why?
To get to this point I've been able to somehow manipulate which balls are drawn. I've either fooled everyone in the room or every single one of them is involved in the conspiracy. If I can accomplish all of that then why in the world would the fact that it was shown on TV convince you of anything? David Copperfield and David Blaine have made a living off of using camera tricks to fool audiences. If I can fool all of the people actually in the room then a TV audience isn't going to be a problem.
To me,the idea is pretty far fetched. It's just too complicated to pull off and there's too much risk if caught. The NBA is a multi-billion dollar business and if it were found to be rigging it's lottery then the backlash would be huge. They are going to take that risk to put Anthony Davis in New Orleans? Really?
Too complicated....didn't understand...... must be conspiracy
Posted on 6/1/12 at 11:26 pm to saintsfan22
Seems to be the case. The thread died after I posted hard to dispute facts.
It's rigged, I tell you! Just trust me!
It's rigged, I tell you! Just trust me!
Posted on 6/1/12 at 11:37 pm to saintsfan22
quote:tl;dr therefore rigged
Too complicated....didn't understand...... must be conspiracy
Posted on 6/1/12 at 11:41 pm to Fearthehat0307
It makes sense to throw conspiracy theories out there when ERNST AND frickING YOUNG supervised this. Yes, they are going to risk reputation, jailtime, and billions of dollars to rig ping pong balls for one basketball player.
TOTAL SENSE.
TOTAL SENSE.
Posted on 6/1/12 at 11:45 pm to Zantrix
quote:tl;dr it was rigged deal with it
It makes sense to throw conspiracy theories out there when ERNST AND frickING YOUNG supervised this. Yes, they are going to risk reputation, jailtime, and billions of dollars to rig ping pong balls for one basketball player.
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