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Who's the biggest winner in NBA History?
Posted on 6/17/15 at 7:53 am
Posted on 6/17/15 at 7:53 am
WINNING: A composite of NBA Playoff Performance in the NBA Modern Era
Been wanting to tackle this for a while and had some time today.
It's always troubled me to see how people hold up Michael Jordan's 6 for 6 as the only stat that matters with regards to winning. What about the other 15 years that Michael Jordan took the court? Do the 9 times that Michael didn't win the championship count against him? If so, how much? Does the fact that Tim Duncan has never missed the playoffs count for anything? Does someone like Lebron get credit for taking his team to the Finals six times versus Larry Bird who only made the Finals 5 times. is it not better to advance deeper, even if you've had your heart broken at the very end?
With that in mind, I wanted to tally the "success" of each of these players with a wider perspective than only championships count. I kept it in the modern era that way, we could quantify numbers of rounds. For our purposes, missing the playoffs = -1 point, 1st round exit = 1, 2nd round = 2, 3rd round = 3, finals loss = 4, championships =5, then divided that number by the number of years the player played. the idea being, that the highest number represents the max playoff winning possibility. the closest to winning in every single opportunity of the player's career.
-for the purposes of this study, i've calculated every single year the players played, injured or not, pre or post prime. sometimes you're injured, sometimes you're not. hard to quantify, especially when other's people's injuries also play a factor in team's winning championships.
-additionally, to try and get more accurate, i gave a bonus point for each season that the player was the definitive leader of the team, giving the nod to scoring or clear MVP status.
- the clear winner of this all time would be Russell. But given the changes in playoff format, focused on post-merger. The old playoffs had a semifinals and a finals. that's it. hard to calculate.
here's what i got:
7) Shaquille O'Neal: Composite 3.21 (19 seasons) - Hampered by his bouncing around in his later years, 4 Titles, 4 Finals Losses, 3 Conference Finals, 5 Semis, 3 first round exits, 2 missed playoffs.
6) Kobe Bryant: Composite: 3.47 (17 seasons) - Injured the last few years and hurt by the post-shaq years. 5 Titles, 2 Finals losses, 1 Conference Finals, 5 Semifinals, 3 First Round exits, 3 Missed Playodds
5) Michael Jordan: Composite: 3.73 (15 seasons) - Hurt by two Wizards years, but buoyed by two years early in his career where the Bulls made the playoffs with losing records. 6 Titles, 0 Finals Losses, 2 Conference Finals, 2 Semifinals, 3 First Round exits, 2 Missed Playoffs.
4) Lebron James: Composite: 3.75 (12 seasons)- Didn't make playoffs in first two seasons and has made at least the semifinals ever since. 2 Titles, 4 Finals Losses, 1 Conference Final, 3 Semifinals, 0 First Round Exits, 2 Missed Playoffs
3) Tim Duncan: Composite: 3.89 (18 seasons) peak consistency, but a surprising number of first round exits. 5 Titles, 1 Finals Loss, 3 Conference Finals, 5 Semifinals, 4 First Round Exits, 0 Missed Playoffs
2) Larry Bird: Composite: 4 (13 Seasons). Larry got out at the right time. 3 Titles, 2 Finals Losses, 2 Conference Finals, 4 Semi Finals, 2 First Round Losses, Zero Missed Playoffs.
and the biggest playoff winner of all time:
1) Magic Johnson: Composite: 4.75. (12 Seasons) Magic was in the finals 9 of his 12 Years in the league. 5 Titles, 4 Finals Losses, 2 Conference Finals, 1 Semifinal, 1 First Round Exit, Never missed the playoffs.
There you have it. If we're talking about who the biggest Winner of all Time is in the Modern Era, Magic is it. He brought your team the closest to a title every year.
Other notes:
-going back and seeing who got swept and lost in the playoffs was fascinating. for instance, Michael didn't advance past the second round for 5 years then DOMINATED from there on out. Magic got swept a few times. Tim Duncan losing in the first round so many times. Perspective is super interesting.
- just ran the math, if we omit michael's wizards year, his total jumps up to 4.46. still behind magic, but second best all time. that said, he played them. they had to count.
Hope you enjoyed.
Been wanting to tackle this for a while and had some time today.
It's always troubled me to see how people hold up Michael Jordan's 6 for 6 as the only stat that matters with regards to winning. What about the other 15 years that Michael Jordan took the court? Do the 9 times that Michael didn't win the championship count against him? If so, how much? Does the fact that Tim Duncan has never missed the playoffs count for anything? Does someone like Lebron get credit for taking his team to the Finals six times versus Larry Bird who only made the Finals 5 times. is it not better to advance deeper, even if you've had your heart broken at the very end?
With that in mind, I wanted to tally the "success" of each of these players with a wider perspective than only championships count. I kept it in the modern era that way, we could quantify numbers of rounds. For our purposes, missing the playoffs = -1 point, 1st round exit = 1, 2nd round = 2, 3rd round = 3, finals loss = 4, championships =5, then divided that number by the number of years the player played. the idea being, that the highest number represents the max playoff winning possibility. the closest to winning in every single opportunity of the player's career.
-for the purposes of this study, i've calculated every single year the players played, injured or not, pre or post prime. sometimes you're injured, sometimes you're not. hard to quantify, especially when other's people's injuries also play a factor in team's winning championships.
-additionally, to try and get more accurate, i gave a bonus point for each season that the player was the definitive leader of the team, giving the nod to scoring or clear MVP status.
- the clear winner of this all time would be Russell. But given the changes in playoff format, focused on post-merger. The old playoffs had a semifinals and a finals. that's it. hard to calculate.
here's what i got:
7) Shaquille O'Neal: Composite 3.21 (19 seasons) - Hampered by his bouncing around in his later years, 4 Titles, 4 Finals Losses, 3 Conference Finals, 5 Semis, 3 first round exits, 2 missed playoffs.
6) Kobe Bryant: Composite: 3.47 (17 seasons) - Injured the last few years and hurt by the post-shaq years. 5 Titles, 2 Finals losses, 1 Conference Finals, 5 Semifinals, 3 First Round exits, 3 Missed Playodds
5) Michael Jordan: Composite: 3.73 (15 seasons) - Hurt by two Wizards years, but buoyed by two years early in his career where the Bulls made the playoffs with losing records. 6 Titles, 0 Finals Losses, 2 Conference Finals, 2 Semifinals, 3 First Round exits, 2 Missed Playoffs.
4) Lebron James: Composite: 3.75 (12 seasons)- Didn't make playoffs in first two seasons and has made at least the semifinals ever since. 2 Titles, 4 Finals Losses, 1 Conference Final, 3 Semifinals, 0 First Round Exits, 2 Missed Playoffs
3) Tim Duncan: Composite: 3.89 (18 seasons) peak consistency, but a surprising number of first round exits. 5 Titles, 1 Finals Loss, 3 Conference Finals, 5 Semifinals, 4 First Round Exits, 0 Missed Playoffs
2) Larry Bird: Composite: 4 (13 Seasons). Larry got out at the right time. 3 Titles, 2 Finals Losses, 2 Conference Finals, 4 Semi Finals, 2 First Round Losses, Zero Missed Playoffs.
and the biggest playoff winner of all time:
1) Magic Johnson: Composite: 4.75. (12 Seasons) Magic was in the finals 9 of his 12 Years in the league. 5 Titles, 4 Finals Losses, 2 Conference Finals, 1 Semifinal, 1 First Round Exit, Never missed the playoffs.
There you have it. If we're talking about who the biggest Winner of all Time is in the Modern Era, Magic is it. He brought your team the closest to a title every year.
Other notes:
-going back and seeing who got swept and lost in the playoffs was fascinating. for instance, Michael didn't advance past the second round for 5 years then DOMINATED from there on out. Magic got swept a few times. Tim Duncan losing in the first round so many times. Perspective is super interesting.
- just ran the math, if we omit michael's wizards year, his total jumps up to 4.46. still behind magic, but second best all time. that said, he played them. they had to count.
Hope you enjoyed.
This post was edited on 6/17/15 at 8:32 am
12
Posted on 6/17/15 at 7:55 am to LSU Fan 90812
Just making up new stats in an attempt to make leLoser better than MJ
Lolz
Lolz
Posted on 6/17/15 at 7:57 am to CptBengal
quote:
Just making up new stats in an attempt to make leLoser better than MJ
no. i honestly just wanted a way to quantify something like this. i'd do the same with football. is it better to go to three super bowls and win all three? or go to six super bowls winning three and losing three?
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:26 am to LSU Fan 90812
Just how did you leave Bill Russell off of this list. 11 NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS! He still belongs at #1. You can't justify leaving him off.
This post was edited on 6/17/15 at 8:28 am
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:27 am to VABuckeye
quote:
- the clear winner of this all time would be Russell. But given the changes in playoff format, focused on post-merger. The old playoffs had a semifinals and a finals. that's it. hard to calculate.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:28 am to LSU Fan 90812
Kobe was injured this year, last year, and for much of 2005 (though he played through it, but much of that team was injured and they lost their coach mid season due to heart problems)...those three years happen to be the three they missed the playoffs.
If anything, that proves your metric approach wrong. Missing the playoffs, under those circumstances, proves MORE that Kobe is a winner than a loser.
If anything, that proves your metric approach wrong. Missing the playoffs, under those circumstances, proves MORE that Kobe is a winner than a loser.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:28 am to LSU Fan 90812
Havlicek had 8.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:29 am to LSU Fan 90812
Bill Russell not even being ranked destroys the credibility of your list. Russell is not only the greatest winner in NBA history, he's the greatest winner in sports history and #2 isn't even remotely close.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:30 am to Bench McElroy
Did Russell play when there were Peach Baskets??
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:30 am to LSU Fan 90812
quote:
Does someone like Lebron get credit for taking his team to the Finals six times versus Larry Bird who only made the Finals 5 times. is it not better to advance deeper, even if you've had your heart broken at the very end?
Without a doubt, I would take 5 trips with 3 rings over 6 trips with 2 rings.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:30 am to theunknownknight
quote:
Kobe was injured this year, last year, and for much of 2005 (though he played through it, but much of that team was injured and they lost their coach mid season due to heart problems)...those three years happen to be the three they missed the playoffs.
Jordan broke an ankle one year and came back early. Bird played his last two years in a back brace. Lebron lost Kyrie and Dwayne Wade in the Finals. Bird lost McHale. Isaiah Thomas rolled his ankle in a finals vs Magic. For these unquantifiable reasons, i said, if they played that year, I chose to count it.
Entire body of work devoid of situational circumstance. results only.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:31 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
Bill Russell not even being ranked destroys the credibility of your list. Russell is not only the greatest winner in NBA history, he's the greatest winner in sports history and #2 isn't even remotely close.
READ THE POST.
Russel played at a time where the playoffs were two rounds. For the purposes of comparison you can not mathematically equate those with the modern era of NBA playoffs.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:33 am to LSU Fan 90812
quote:
Jordan broke an ankle one year and came back early. Bird played his last two years in a back brace. Lebron lost Kyrie and Dwayne Wade in the Finals. Bird lost McHale. Isaiah Thomas rolled his ankle in a finals vs Magic. For these unquantifiable reasons, i said, if they played that year, I chose to count it.
Entire body of work devoid of situational circumstance. results only.
Well, I mean, you are kinda proving my point.
What about the 5 seasons Jordan played without Pippen and him never having a winning season? 0-5. I would think that would make a nice argument for adding Pippen to this list.
This post was edited on 6/17/15 at 8:34 am
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:36 am to LSU Fan 90812
I like the effort and analysis. I think it does reflect who was simply the biggest winner during their career in the current or similar playoff format.
It just shouldn't be confused with best player.
It just shouldn't be confused with best player.
This post was edited on 6/17/15 at 8:39 am
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:36 am to LSU Fan 90812
quote:
For our purposes, missing the playoffs = -1 point, 1st round exit = 1, 2nd round = 2, 3rd round = 3, finals loss = 4, championships =5, then divided that number by the number of years the player played
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:36 am to LSU Fan 90812
quote:
Russel played at a time where the playoffs were two rounds. For the purposes of comparison you can not mathematically equate those with the modern era of NBA playoffs.
quote:
Entire body of work devoid of situational circumstance. results only.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:36 am to LSU Fan 90812
Interesting analysis. I would like to see points double each playoff round though. I think that is a better way to distribute the points.
Meaning:
No playoffs: -1
1st round exit: 1
2nd round exit: 2
3rd round: 4
Finals loss: 8
Championship: 16
Meaning:
No playoffs: -1
1st round exit: 1
2nd round exit: 2
3rd round: 4
Finals loss: 8
Championship: 16
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:37 am to theunknownknight
quote:
What about the 5 seasons Jordan played without Pippen and him never having a winning season. 0-5. I would think that would make a nice argument for adding Pippen to this list.
This is where it gets complicated. I've kept this to undisputed team leaders/MVPs. Otherwise, players like Robert Horry would start sneaking into the equation. to me, it's an eye-ball test type thing.
who was the leader of the bulls during the bulls dynasty: Jordan. Clearly.
with situations like Kareem v Magic or Shaq v Kobe or to a lesser extent Lebron v. Dwade, a little less clear. Hence using that a more of a secondary metric.
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:38 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
No playoffs: -1
1st round exit: 1
2nd round exit: 2
3rd round: 4
Finals loss: 8
Championship: 16
hmm.. i think this is skewed a little too much towards the championship. we can all assign the weights. i would also say under this idea, i'd think not making the playoffs at all should count WAY more as a negative with the argument being. you're a great player and you can't will your team to the playoffs?
but sure, these metrics could be manipulated however you want. i'd LOVE to see someone like a kevin pelton or a hollinger come up with a REAL formula on this.
This post was edited on 6/17/15 at 8:40 am
Posted on 6/17/15 at 8:39 am to LSU Fan 90812
quote:
This is where it gets complicated. I've kept this to undisputed team leaders/MVPs. Otherwise, players like Robert Horry would start sneaking into the equation. to me, it's an eye-ball test type thing.
who was the leader of the bulls during the bulls dynasty: Jordan. Clearly.
with situations like Kareem v Magic or Shaq v Kobe or to a lesser extent Lebron v. Dwade, a little less clear. Hence using that a more of a secondary metric.
The difference is Pippen was highly competitive without Jordan. The inverse cannot be said. There is empirical evidence that Pippen was a very strong catalyst for the Bulls, and other teams, winning. We are talking about one of the greatest players to ever play the game.
This post was edited on 6/17/15 at 8:40 am
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