re: The Unofficial 2017 French Open Thread

Monfils

MidnightVibe's Belated Draw Analysis:

The Great Great Rafael Nadal Quarter:
Realizing that I have a Rafa mancrush and that everybody knows I have a Rafa mancrush, I tried really hard to look at this quarter with my "devil's advocate" lenses on and try my best to come up with somebody that could threaten before the semifinals....but I scan up and down this section of the draw and I just don't see it happening. He's got Robin Haase this round, and probably Troicki next round, and then probably Bautista in the 4th. In the quarters he'll likely get either Playboy Grigs or Busta Rhymes, both of whom are aolid players, but I don't see either of them having the goods to take out Rafa on clay in five. I really tried.

The top half off this quarter is pretty interesting, though. Playboy Grigs should take on Busta in the third round, and I actually like Busta in that one. Moreover, I like Busta in the would-be 4th round match against his most likely opponent of Milos Raonic. At that point, he would get Rafa, and does Rafa ever lose to other spaniards? Though, I think Rafa would actually rather see Milos or Grigs here than Busta, I think he'll prevail no matter what.

The Novak Djokovic Quarter:
I think that Novak was very smart to hire Agassi and I think you'll see an immediate improvement in his play as a result. It's my understanding that Agassi isn't sticking around the whole fortnight. Does anybody know how long he is sticking around?

Djokovic has Sousa in the second round and then likely Schwartzman in the third. Neither of those matches are trivial. I suspect he won't have too much trouble with Sousa, but Schwartzman is a straight dirtballer and could be a tricky out.

Pouille did not look good in the first round, but if he can make it to the 4th round, that will be a fun match against Novak. The draw gods were just not smiling on Mr. Djokovic in this one. Or on anyone else in this section for that matter.

Thiem shoudl roll in the second round but will get either Coric or Stevie J in the third round -- no easy out either way. If he is able to prevail over either guy, he'll probably end up getting Goffy in the 4th round, who shouldn't have a great deal of difficulty with his second or third round matches. I consider Goffy and Thiem equals as players. Thiem may have the slight edge on clay, but that is a tough damn out, and could go either way. In fact, I'm not even sure if I wouldn't lean Goffy in that one.

I do think Novak will beat either one of them, and so as bad as his form has been so far this year (exception: thiem in rome), I think he is the most likely guy to advance to the semis for a date with Rafa.

The Stanimal Quarter:
I'm looking at the bottom of this draw, and if Kyrgios stays reasonably healthy, I like his chances to advance to the quarters. He'll likely get Cilic in the 4th round, and I lean Kyrgios in that one, again, if he's healthy.

The top half of this quarter is wide open. Stanimal hasn't been in good form but you just never know with that guy. Gael has played very few clay court matches this year, and I wonder how healthy he is, but I can't rule him out to make the quarters. I'd give him the edge over Gassy in the third round, and if he gets Faggy E O in the 4th round, I will definitely be tuning in for the headcase showdown. Should be some solid tanking. And, seriously, I can't stand Fognini, but he is a really damn good clay court player and if he can keep his head reasonably on, I wouldn't rule out him making it to the quarters either.

So I think Kyrgios will make it to the quarters, but it's tough to predict who he'll go up against. I like his chances against anyone but the Stanimal, who is still riled up about Kyrgios telling him that Kokk-inher-akis banged his girlfriend. He'll never get over that.

The Clayray Quarter:
I like Delpo's draw in the top half of this quarter. Are we sure he's completely healthy? I heard he almost didn't play because of a nagging shoulder or something, but it's tough to beat a fellow profession 2, 1, 4 with a bum shoulder, so I'm thinking he's probably feeling okay.

Somebody mentioned previously in this thread that they thought Isner could make the semis. I don't see it. Isner has a dreadfully bad H2H against Berdy, and so if Berdy can make past the young Russian Khachanov, then I think you have to pencil in Ester's husband into your Round 4 line. If he gets Delpo in that round, I like the Argentinian.

I like Cuevas to make it to the 4th round where he'll probably go up against Eggshell Kei. Predicting Kei to advance with anybody reasonable certainty is a dicey exercise as the poor guy just can't seem to stay healthy for any reasonable stretch of time. If Kei advances to the 4th, him and Cuevas will be a really good match and I might actualy lean Cuevas on that one.

My faint-hearted predication for this quarter is that Delpo makes it through.

Semifinals:
Predicting the top half of the draw is just kinda silly as it is so wide open. Put a gun to my head and I will go Kyrgios. But the only player who can make it out of the top half who would have a chance in the final is the Stanimal.

I'm going super duper chalk in the other half and predicting Rafa over Djoker. I do not believe that Rafa beating Djoker is anything loose resembling a sure thing, and a 5 set epic could easily happen. Rafa just has soooo much trouble with Djoker's game that if Djoke comes in confident, I don't know that that much is something other than even money.

I will stick with my original prediction from several posts ago and go with Rafa as your 2017 RG champ, though this potential Djoke match has me concerned. I think Rafa rolls over anybody that he has to face in the semifinals other than Djoke, and that includes Thiem.

One thing that us prognosticators will want to keep an eye on is the amount of mileage that each guy puts on themselves in advancing round to round. If Djoke plays a couple five setters and Rafa doesn't drop a set, then my analysis changes (as in more bullish on Rafa)

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I remember you bringing this up last year too. Has Stan mentioned it again recently?

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No, I'm just being funny

I have a feeling some slapdick like Fognini is going to come out of the top half. I guess if I had a gun to my head, I would pick Nishikori, but we know his body will give out at some point.

Nice win for Bellis

(no message)

I thought Stevie had a legit argument.
I thought Coric was being a sore loser.

Also, Stevie after the match was really emotional. The interview after the match was kind of heartwrenching. I'm rooting for Stevie for the rest of the tournament. I don't love his game, but he seems like good people.

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I think that Novak was very smart to hire Agassi and I think you'll see an immediate improvement in his play as a result. It's my understanding that Agassi isn't sticking around the whole fortnight. Does anybody know how long he is sticking around? 

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I think it's a good fit too. I don't know the answer to your question. I certainly understand Agassi not wanting to go on tour with Novak but if he makes it to the semis and Agassi bails that would be really lame imo.

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Hoping Tsonga can make a nice run.

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Rekt