re: Predict the NBA Finals Matchup

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I don't care how great Paul George recovers, you can't get in game shape without playing games.

Players have difficulty with game pace after missing a month of games. He will have missed 85-90% of games by the time he returns, if he even does return this season.

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He'll have a month and a half to get in game shape. Its not like the playoffs will start the day he comes back.

And where's your evidence that players have significant difficulty with game pace after missing a month? I could see it being true but I'm also positive that if it were not true, people would pass it off as fact anyway based on either anecdotal evidence or just something that sounds like it might make sense based on their completely irrelevant personal fitness experiences.

A strong, equally devoid of evidence argument could be made that after a month and a half of playing, the out-of-shapeness will have less effect than the wear that the 82 game schedule put on the rest of players. From a physical standpoint, that is probably true.

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Wade won't be healthy for the entire post season. And when he's played, they are 15-20 this year. They are 23rd in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating. And just looking at their wins and losses, they have only 7 wins against teams above .500. And are fighting for the 8th seed at the moment and could miss the playoffs.

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So? For finding good value here based on the odds, missing the playoffs is no worse than losing in game 7 of the playoffs. The expected outcome is irrelevant at those odds. Its more about the 1/20 best case scenario.

The 5% chance best case scenario for the Heat is that Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are healthy and Hassan Whiteside turns out to be an all-star caliber center.

What's the best case scenario for the Bucks? What about Wizards or Toronto? Doesn't put them much better than they are now.

Its all about the variance of the possible outcomes in trying to find teams that are underpriced.

Warriors vs Wizards

ill be whatever you want me to be

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i will suck your dick and swallow your seed on live stream if the pacers make the nba finals.

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This isn't about who makes the playoffs... It's about who makes the NBA Finals. And you said the fricking Pacers and Heat.

Has anyone said the Wizards or Raports or Bucks will make the Finals? You keep bringing up those teams like it helps your argument. It doesn't. Nobody thinks those teams will make the Finals. And best case scenario for Raptors and Wizards is conference finals... Which is better than the Heat.

The Heat are fighting for the 8th seed and the Pacers will most likely miss out on the playoffs. And I would say the odds of both teams missing the playoffs are better than 1 of them making the NBA Finals.

And why are you going through different scenarios to find teams underpriced? Again, this thread isn't about who makes the playoffs... It's about who gets to the NBA Finals. The Finals, not playoffs.

And out of all the better teams in the East, you picked the Pacers or Heat. So you think they get to the Finals over the Cavs, Bulls, and Hawks? Really?

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I hope the Pacers make it because we all know you wouldn't do this.

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there is only one way to find out....

Current odds from 5Dimes:

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NBA NBA Finals matchup
Wed 5/6 7:00PM
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors +306
Chicago Bulls vs Golden State Warriors +364
Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors +600
Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors +856
Cleveland Cavaliers vs LA Clippers +1080
Chicago Bulls vs LA Clippers +1250
Atlanta Hawks vs LA Clippers +1940
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Houston Rockets +2195
Chicago Bulls vs Houston Rockets +2525
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Memphis Grizzlies +2600
Chicago Bulls vs Memphis Grizzlies +2975
Washington Wizards vs LA Clippers +3075
Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets +3875
Atlanta Hawks vs Memphis Grizzlies +4550
Washington Wizards vs Houston Rockets +6650
Washington Wizards vs Memphis Grizzlies +19400

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I'm still alive with the following bets:

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3/4/15 7:05pm Basketball NBA NBA Finals matchup - Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors +1095
12/19/14 8:05pm Basketball NBA NBA Finals matchup - Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets +22500
12/19/14 8:05pm Basketball NBA NBA Finals matchup - Atlanta Hawks vs Memphis Grizzlies +24000
12/19/14 8:05pm Basketball NBA NBA Finals matchup - Washington Wizards vs Memphis Grizzlies +14000

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Might have to finally add some Cavs action to hedge all my Hawks picks. Clippers too?

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Might have to finally add some Cavs action to hedge all my Hawks picks. Clippers too?

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For sure add the Clippers.

The Hawks aren't making the Finals, so you might want to just take a whole different angle right now.

Cavs/Clippers at +1080 is great value.

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add Cavs vs Warriors @ -150? I gotta add it, right?

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I would.