re: Official Wk 4 College FB Bet Thread (Swiggety Swooty, I'm Commin for that Booty)

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Why is Michigan favored by 5 against BYU?

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this

very fishy

Like my actual job or regression? I work at a financial tech company catering to hedge funds, so I'm a numbers guy somewhat. I enjoy handicapping and wish I took a more quantitative approach to it but I'm not really sure where to start.

I'm a complete amatuer gambler. I don't take many pre-game lines and usually focus on live bets with teams that were highly favored and go down a few scores, or 2H lines on teams that got blown out in the first half. I guess you could call it a "regression to the mean" strategy.

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Why is Michigan favored by 5 against BYU?


this

very fishy

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I thought BYU getting 17 at UCLA was fishy. Didn't turn out to be

I was referencing work; curious if it was b4 but I see it's not.

Record
5-6-1

BYU+5.5(biggest play so far)

When I first looked at this line, I was shocked that it was over 3. If you take the logos off the players helmets for this game, the visiting team should be a 2.5 point favorite or pick'em at worst. If you are betting on Michigan this game, you are laying points for the "big brand" name.

When the average viewer sees Michigan, he sees a team that had close loss to Utah in the season opener. Then he sees back to back 20+ point wins at home and he will see that Michigan is "back". He might think that Haubaugh is working his magic. Now, Harbaugh is a great coach(I'm a fan of his style and khakis). You don't turn Stanford into a national power by accident. You don't go to 3 straight NFC conference title games by chance. He guy knows how to coach. But those two teams have one thing in common. They had playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Players under his belt at Stanford:
Andrew Luck, Toby Gerhart, Richard Sherman, Coby Fleener, Stephan Tayor, Zach Ertz, David DeCastro, Jonathan Martin, Doug Baldwin...All drafted and having careers in the NFL.

Looking at this Michigan roster, I don't see any player's name getting called on draft day next April.

Then you look at BYU. Can you remember any Cougar getting drafted recently? All I can remember is Ansah and Van Noy. True that 4 out of the last 6 years, no BYU players were drafted. But you look at BYU. You see that these "kids" at BYU. They go to BYU because they want to play ball at BYU. They are not 5* or 4* highly touted recruits hoping to get a meal ticket to the NFL. They seem to love playing ball and they have a "team" mentality vs a "me" mentality. The average age of the team is around 21 and are more mature thanks to the 2 year church missions performed by some. These older athletes have been out on their own throughout different parts of the world and have learned many life lessons and how to be self sufficient.

A report issued by NFL Commissioner's office in 2011 states the average career in the NFL for a player is 6 years. So the average player drafted at age 22 or 23 will be peaking in terms of his football and athletic ability around the age of 25 or 26 and then will have diminished by the age of 29. Thus, when the majority of BYU’s upper classmen range in age from 23-26 years old, they are essentially in their athletic peak as men. (Source: nflmocks.com)

Let's look at how these 2 teams have performed so far:

-Michigan(2-1) lost to Utah, beat Ore St and UNLV. Michigan 180yds/game rushing, 194yds/game passing on offenses vs 92yds/game rushing, 144yds/game passing on defense.

-BYU(2-1) beat Nebraska and Boise, lost to UCLS. BYU 121yds/game rushing, 310 yds/game passing on offense vs 162yds/game rushing 240 yds/game passing on defense.

Looking deeper into the numbers. Michigan's offense is still anemic in my eyes. Ruddock is below average QB with at TD/INT ratio of 3/5 with a QBR of 118.5(Jeremy Johnson has a higher QBR). His longest pass is only 28 yards. So a lot of dinking, dunking, and the occasional intermediate pass. No deep threat on this team. On the ground, the Wolverines are wavering 4.8 yards a pop. However, bellcow back DeVeon Smith is averaging only 3.9 yds a carry. We have a team that had problem moving the ball and scoring points on a legit D in Utah, but they were able to "get the job done" vs 2 weaker opponents.

A lot of people perceive BYU Tanner Magnum is lucky. But he can play(ranked as the third best pro-style quarterback in his class). And he can stretch the field 12yds/completion, TD passes of 42, 84, 35. He's also smart (3.85 GPA) The guys 22, got moxy, and totally unselfish. On the ground, Adam Hine leads the way (279yds, 6.1 ypc). On defense, this teams has give up yards, but they are very opportunistic (1st in NCAA with 7 ints). They can also pressure the QB(7 sacks). This defense can also get off the field on 3rd down allowing only a 26% conversion rate.

So I'm taking the team with better QB, more explosive passing game, defense, battle tested. BYU out gained all 3 legit teams(probably all bowl eligible). Also, we are putting money on a more mature, discipline team(BYU 14 penalties vs 29 penalties).

Now that totals are being posted I am going to start running my sheets

TCU/Texas Tech total is 79

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So I'm taking the team with better QB, more explosive passing game, defense, battle tested

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Look if you want to bet BYU by all means do, but where exactly do you come to the conclusion that BYU has the better defense?

Michigan is ranked 7th nationally in total defense and 15th in scoring defense while BYU is 87th and 75th for starters.


BYU's dream season came to an end late Saturday night and I have a hard time seeing them get up for a fourth Saturday in a row. Michigan should be able to control the line of scrimmage and run the football enough to cover the 5.5.

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Look if you want to bet BYU by all means do, but where exactly do you come to the conclusion that BYU has the better defense?

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Byu has played 3 legit teams. UCLA- a legit pac 12 contender, Boise st-probably will be favorite vs all their opponents, Nebraska -another bowl team at season end.

Sure, michigan put up "better numbers" vs Utah, ore st, UNLV. The only solid team they play is Utah and they got out physical and could not do anything on offense.

Just because you are ranked higher nationally in defense doesn't mean your D is better especially early in the season where the games played are few, vs irrelevant teams, and therefore stats are skewed.

BC Defense is ranked #1. It doesn't mean that their D is better than LSU's? BC 2 FCS schools and their stats is good looking. LSU played harder competition and as a result, their stats is not as good.

Put 2 units a piece on Arky st. +9 and Arizona +3.5.