re: Official Week 6 College Football Bet Thread

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How could you not love Oklahoma State +7 in Morgantown? Yeah, it's a tough place to play, but OSU is a much better team than WV.

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2 years ago Oklahoma State came in as big favorites to Morgantown and got beat pretty easily

Not sold on Oklahoma State's offense.

West Virginia's defense is good, I think the best in the Big 12, they just killed themselves with 5 turnovers last week.

I have no play on either side of this game, I have a play on the under, but to say Oklahoma State is the better team is foolish IMO. Oklahoma State is 2 bad ref calls away from being 0-2 in the Big 12, and played a shite out of conference schedule in which they didn't even impress against.

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I locked in LSU -13.5 yesterday.

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Mine was cancelled. Books have some kind of rules/clauses where they have the rights to cancel if such thing as change in venue.

Question for the quantitative betters - where do you get the data for your model? Do you curate it yourself or is there a clean source that you pull from online?

Im having a hard one finding one. The NCAAF site used to have CSV download as an option for player/team stats but doesn't anymore.

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Question for the quantitative betters - where do you get the data for your model? Do you curate it yourself or is there a clean source that you pull from online?

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I know a guy who knows a guy who supplies it to me. I am worried about that source getting cut off, and have been considering developing my own scraper for when that day comes.

All I really need for my model is drive data. I can extrapolate time of possession and other stuff from the drive data, and then manually input small bits like Home/Away/Neutral, Final Score, and other bits that don't need to be scraped.

Some guys at /r/cfbanalysis(I hate reddit, but these guys are working hard to put together data sources) have been able to get about 99% of the drives together, but are missing Oklahoma-Akron, UTEP-UTSA, and MTSU-Charlotte. Anyone who models knows you need 100% of it for it to be useful. But if you really wanted to, you could simply manually enter in drive data for those 3 games. Last year my supplier was unable to provide about 11 games over the course of the year, so I had to manually input the drive data myself, takes about half an hour per game. So far this year I haven't had to do that.

LINK /

Crazy line activity in the directional Michigan game.

Whats the sheet saying about Navy cover %?

I know you had it as a nuetral site game

who are you on in mich game chem

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Crazy line activity in the directional Michigan game.

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I have CMU +7.5 and now see at +7 where is the line movement

Mine with Sportsbook was officially cancelled. The teams are now listed with an "(In Baton Rouge)" next to them. I just hit South Carolina +18.5.

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I know i have asked before so just confirming that it says 65.6% cover?

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Yes but for the season that method is 120-114 on the year, so its not a sure thing.

With that being said, when it gives a team a 60.7% chance of covering or higher, its 54-43 (55.7%) so the odds are better.

Navy also ticks off these boxes:

-Away Teams who get 8 more points of value or more on Method 1 "Computer" are 8-4 covering the year. Dogs who get 8 more points of value or more on Method 1 "Computer" are 22-10 (68.7%) on the year. Navy is getting 15 points of value according to Method 1

-Dogs who have 8 points of value or more on Method 1, 3.3 points of value or more on Method 2 "50 Matchups" and are given a 60.7% of covering ore higher are 16-9 (64%) on the year. Navy has 6.43 points of value on Method 2 and is at 65.6% cover.

-Away Dogs who have 2.53 points of value or more on Method 2 "50 Matchups" are 52-34 (60.4%) on the year. Navy has 6.43 points of value.