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Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:12 pm to oleyeller
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:12 pm to oleyeller
quote:
(asu +3, ulm +35, and central mich +23)
ULM +35 is good but I got it last week at +35.5. I still think 35 is a lot for Georgia to cover in a game that will likely feature a lot of running the ball and the clock moving. Plus ULM's defense is not bad.
CMU +23 was one of my top plays for the week just because A) I don't think Oklahoma State is as good as their preseason hype and B) 23 is a lot to cover against a jacked up home team on a Thursday Night, especially with the "our coach is battling cancer" angle. I could see Gundy, if OKST does get up a lot, taking his foot off the gas out of respect for their coach and them CMU doing the backdoor cover. Or, the more likely scenario, CMU simply playing a good game and being a formidable opening night opponent.
1
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:15 pm to accnodefense
Locking in this weekend at the Wynn
Harbaugh +6
UGA -21 1st Half
ASU +3
Large bet on Bama -10
Harbaugh +6
UGA -21 1st Half
ASU +3
Large bet on Bama -10
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:20 pm to SDVTiger
They won't have first half lines available til Wednesday or Thursday.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:22 pm to JG77056
Then i will be wiring cash to my brother in law Wed for UGA
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:23 pm to accnodefense
quote:
For example a 3 team parlay in reality should pay out 8:1 (2 x 2 x 2) but instead it only pays out 6:1. You aren't getting fair odds.
Not exactly, but in general they aren't good bets. I've made pretty good money off of them though.
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:26 pm to JG77056
Parlays should be for entertainment purposes only. I admit I will do them every now and then but I never bet more than $5 on one, for the most part I simply bet a dollar or two. I view them as lottery tickets. And the largest one I have hit was an 8 teamer back in 2012 that paid out 140:1 but I only put $2 on it. One hit out of the dozens I have played in the past.
They should never be a part of your long term profit strategy.
They should never be a part of your long term profit strategy.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:29 pm to accnodefense
For certain sports, like college football and basketball where some games have a certain winner, big money moneyline parlays can make a lot of money.
For instance week 1 I'm parlaying Central Fla, TCU, Ohio St., Mich St, Bama, Auburn and Tennessee most likely. right now a $400 bet pays off $1,050.
For instance week 1 I'm parlaying Central Fla, TCU, Ohio St., Mich St, Bama, Auburn and Tennessee most likely. right now a $400 bet pays off $1,050.
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:44 pm to JG77056
quote:
For certain sports, like college football and basketball where some games have a certain winner, big money moneyline parlays can make a lot of money.
Even then I have never had success with them.
I put a big sum of money on an 8 team ML parlay of big favorites back in 2012 that would have paid out 1.8:1 and lost. The first 7 teams won and the last game was Georgia Tech at home vs. Miami. Georgia Tech kick returner knees the ball in the end zone and had his toe over the line so a safety. Then they blow 14 point lead in the 4th quarter. They went for in on 4th and inches in Miami territory to ice the game and got stuffed. Miami marches downfield and scores a TD with 20 seconds left to force OT. Same shite happens in OT - Georgia Tech stuffed on 4th and inches and Miami wins and ruins my money line parlay.
I view parlays and teasers as cheap ways to get action on more games without having to spend a lot of money. Put 15 teams on a bunch of $1 or $2 teaser/parlay cards and you can have action on every game. Problem is that one team will lose in the 11:00am kick games and all your teaser cards are garbage. To get by that just do a teaser card for different time slots.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:51 pm to JG77056
quote:
For instance week 1 I'm parlaying Central Fla, TCU, Ohio St., Mich St, Bama, Auburn and Tennessee most likely. right now a $400 bet pays off $1,050.
I agree it looks like a good play that will probably hit. But in my experience there is always that team that ends up losing that you don't see coming. That Georgia Tech parlay I talked about wasn't the only one I lost. I lost 4 in a row back in 2012 and haven't done a ML parlay since. There is always that team that loses and ruins it.
The week before that Georgia Tech loss it was Michigan State getting beat by Notre Dame at home, as 13 point favorites.
And the week before that it was both Wisconsin losing at home to Oregon State and a UNLV team that pushed Minnesota to 3OT losing at home to Northern Arizona AND Colorado losing at home to CSU Sacramento. 5-3 on a money line parlay
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:55 pm to accnodefense
quote:
that will probably hit.
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 8/27/15 at 5:01 pm to rocket31
Exactly... if it pays off 2.5:1 you pretty much have to hit 71.4% of them to break even.
It always looks good on paper, just like teasers do.
It always looks good on paper, just like teasers do.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:04 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Exactly... if it pays off 2.5:1 you pretty much have to hit 71.4% of them to break even.
Well this makes no sense.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:04 pm to accnodefense
quote:
Exactly... if it pays off 2.5:1 you pretty much have to hit 71.4% of them to break even.
Your math is off again.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:41 pm to JG77056
ok ok guys.. lets not get in a pissing match, everyone likes different things. Personally i dont play parlays or teasers for the most part.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 7:08 pm to aVatiger
What do y'all see the score being in the OSU VT game? Where is VT going to get their points? I can't help but think OSU beats the snot out of them.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 7:26 pm to ReauxlTide222
I agree. And nobody's in a pissing match, we were just having a discussion.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 10:34 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
I can't help but think OSU beats the snot out of them.
And they're only favored by 10. Exactly the reason I dont think they cover.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:57 pm to blades8088
Books finna eat week 1
Posted on 8/28/15 at 2:21 am to blades8088
Great teams can lose. Great teams can damn sure play close games. But after being embarrassed by VT last year, I just don't see OSU letting VT keep in within 10 points or single digits. Would that not be an indictment on OSU? Urban is a dick and I see him doing his best to return the favor in this game. I also think whoever is in at QB will be playing with their hair on fire. I might pass on the game because of the suspensions and WR problems, but I can't imagine taking the points.
Posted on 8/28/15 at 7:43 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Great teams can lose. Great teams can damn sure play close games. But after being embarrassed by VT last year, I just don't see OSU letting VT keep in within 10 points or single digits. Would that not be an indictment on OSU? Urban is a dick and I see him doing his best to return the favor in this game. I also think whoever is in at QB will be playing with their hair on fire. I might pass on the game because of the suspensions and WR problems, but I can't imagine taking the points.
which is why they set the line there, they knew people would think this
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