NCAA Bracket or Mock NFL Draft (What's easier)

A draft would be much easier to predict under the premise of no trades.

The odds of a perfect bracket are roughly 1 in 128 billion. With a B

In the draft you can look at the coaches/management trends paired with the teams weaknesses and narrow it down to 2 or 3 guys.


ETA: my brain read this as first round. Obviously predicting an entire draft is impossible

quote:

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Got into a discussion with a co-worker at lunch. He says a mock draft is easier to predict with 100% accuracy than a march madness bracket.

I told him he was being ridiculous. I mean, he is, right?

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I guess. I think once you get to the third round of the NFL draft it turns impossible.

You can get pretty good feels for the first two rounds. Once the third round hits, some teams are reaching for guys they know they want but may not be available in 25 picks or taking a chance on a guy with a weed problem/injury bug

If by mock draft you mean the first round, then I'd say chances are better to get 30 something picks 100% correct than to get 60 something picks 100% correct. However, it's easier to get a high accuracy with the tourney than the draft.

in terms of probability, the bracket, and it's not even close. Each game in a bracket only has two possible outcomes. all 256 picks in the draft have dozens of potential options, fewer in the early rounds yes but in the later rounds the number balloons.

so if you want to take an estimate, you could say that on average, each team picking has 30 viable options. That's 30^256 possible outcomes (it's slightly less as you can't pick a player twice, but for estimates sake)

that's 1.39 with 376 zeroes behind it