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Miguel Sano and the AL ROY Race
Posted on 9/2/15 at 12:34 am
Posted on 9/2/15 at 12:34 am
I'm torn on this one-- absolutely no one has been better at the plate this year as a rookie-- .297/.405/.611 - in 50 games, he has 14 HR, and 41 RBI. He's hitting clean up for a team that was supposed to be losing 90 games this year, but that instead is contending for a playoff spot.
His hitting has been timely as well- even as non-believer in clutchness, his HRs have tied or broken ties in games 10 times, of which the Twins have gone on to win 9 of those games. There's not much question that he is more 'valuable' to his team's success, so far.
The negatives- short sample of only 50 games so far makes it hard to give him a bump over somebody like Correa, who has about 20 games played on him, for counting up compiling stats; he's playing DH 90% of the time, and doesn't give near the value when playing 3rd, that Correa does while playing a key defensive position.
That said, if he ends up passing Correa in a ton of offensive categories, significantly, it'll be a tight ROY race.
My gut says he'll drop off a bit, and Correa may recover from his injury and get back into prime form shortly-- but if it comes down to a .275 hitting Correa with about 20 bombs, and the Astros cruising to a west title, and Sano stays around .300 and hits around 22 HR, and he laps Correa in RBI, we might see a reasonably close ROY vote, if the Twins make the playoffs.
His hitting has been timely as well- even as non-believer in clutchness, his HRs have tied or broken ties in games 10 times, of which the Twins have gone on to win 9 of those games. There's not much question that he is more 'valuable' to his team's success, so far.
The negatives- short sample of only 50 games so far makes it hard to give him a bump over somebody like Correa, who has about 20 games played on him, for counting up compiling stats; he's playing DH 90% of the time, and doesn't give near the value when playing 3rd, that Correa does while playing a key defensive position.
That said, if he ends up passing Correa in a ton of offensive categories, significantly, it'll be a tight ROY race.
My gut says he'll drop off a bit, and Correa may recover from his injury and get back into prime form shortly-- but if it comes down to a .275 hitting Correa with about 20 bombs, and the Astros cruising to a west title, and Sano stays around .300 and hits around 22 HR, and he laps Correa in RBI, we might see a reasonably close ROY vote, if the Twins make the playoffs.
7
Posted on 9/2/15 at 12:40 am to BoardReader
Gotta give time to the league to adjust to him like they've done to Correa. His numbers will drop eventually.
Both are going to be great players
Both are going to be great players
Posted on 9/2/15 at 12:42 am to BoardReader
quote:
and Correa may recover from his injury and get back into prime form shortly
You realize he returned Monday night right? 3/9 with a HR, 2B, and 2 RBI's in the two games he's been back.
the home run was lit
ETA: you probably meant that while he's back an injury might linger and be nagging. Sorry I'm an a-hole.
This post was edited on 9/2/15 at 12:44 am
Posted on 9/2/15 at 12:51 am to Prominentwon
quote:
Gotta give time to the league to adjust to him like they've done to Correa. His numbers will drop eventually.
He's hitting significantly better his second time through the league, though.
With a young power hitter, you expect they're guessing well, and getting fastballs to drive-- but look at Sano's HRs--
1. July 7: 1-1, 97 mph fastball off Kevin Gausman, 383 feet to left-center.
2. July 12: 0-2, 81 mph slider off Shane Greene, 382 feet to left-center.
3. July 24: 3-2, 87 mph slider off Michael Pineda, 419 feet to center field.
4. July 31: 1-0, 90 mph splitter off Taijuan Walker, 371 feet to left-center.
5. Aug. 5: 3-2, 94 mph fastball off Drew Hutchison, 447 feet to left-center.
6. Aug. 12: 1-1, 90 mph fastball off Nick Martinez, 429 feet to left-center.
7. Aug. 12: 3-2, 82 mph changeup off Nick Martinez, 402 feet to left field.
8. Aug. 17: 0-0, 92 mph fastball off Caleb Cotham, 388 feet to left field.
9. Aug. 18: 0-0, 83 mph changeup off CC Sabathia, 381 feet to left field.
10. Aug. 20: 0-0, 90 mph fastball off Miguel Gonzalez, 370 feet to left-center.
11. Aug. 23: 0-0, 95 mph fastball off Kevin Gausman, 398 feet to right-center.
12. Aug. 25: 3-2, 92 mph fastball off Nate Karns, 416 feet to center field.
I don't have info on his last 2 HR, but he's showing significant patience, walking at a rate that would be Top 5 in the league, had he enough plate appearances.
His BABIP is going to regress-- but he hits the ball harder, more conistently, than anyone in baseball that isn't Stanton. Same with his discipline in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone.
Where he really falls, though, is in his K rates, which are among the highest in baseball-- he swings hard and misses, but does so at strikes, rather than balls, which is ideal for a power hitter. Young power hitters get fooled generally, when people stop throwing them strikes.
I wouldn't be surprised to see his power rates fall, and his walk rates get even higher, though, as he has no one in that lineup to offer true protection.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:00 am to Harry Caray
quote:
ETA: you probably meant that while he's back an injury might linger and be nagging. Sorry I'm an a-hole.
One of the reasons I think Sano could regress, is that he has sat a game or two because of hammies, so I think the injury thing could well turn out to be a wash.
And to be clear, I think Correa would need to fall off just a tad, for it to be a close ROY race.
I personally give the edge to Correa if he maintains productivity, because of value-added defense.
Edit: Correa was a hammy casualty as well. My bad.
This post was edited on 9/2/15 at 1:08 am
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:04 am to BoardReader
I've been warning the DATers about this young man.
"It will be closer than the experts think."
"It will be closer than the experts think."
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:06 am to BoardReader
I swear that HR he hit last week in Tampa that got ruined by the fricking catwalk would have been a 500 footer.
Did anybody else see that? It turned into a double but I'm curious about the analytics of that blast. Fricking crime that HR was ruined
Did anybody else see that? It turned into a double but I'm curious about the analytics of that blast. Fricking crime that HR was ruined
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:13 am to SirWinston
The analytics said it would have been 425, apparently, though I think he hit it harder than his 447 moonshot.
And tonight's just missed the 3rd deck on a 3-2 cutter, after fighting back from 1-2 down, against Chris Sale, who was dealing tonight-- struck out 10.
And tonight's just missed the 3rd deck on a 3-2 cutter, after fighting back from 1-2 down, against Chris Sale, who was dealing tonight-- struck out 10.
This post was edited on 9/2/15 at 1:14 am
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:21 am to BoardReader
There's no way that homerun in Tampa wasnt at least 450 - it's a deep centerfield and you don't see many no doubters hit to that part of that park
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:25 am to SirWinston
quote:
There's no way that homerun in Tampa wasnt at least 450 - it's a deep centerfield and you don't see many no doubters hit to that part of that park
Yeah. I dunno if the Tampa tape measure takes 50 feet off, for the morale of the pitching staff, but that is one of the hardest hit baseballs I've ever seen.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:28 am to BoardReader
quote:
against Chris Sale, who was dealing tonight
he gave up 4 in the 2nd inning.. but yea
Sano is a beast
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:33 am to BoardReader
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:39 am to BoardReader
425 my arse 
Posted on 9/2/15 at 1:45 am to SirWinston
The Twins got out a counter-message on twitter, claiming it was going 111MPH when it hit, 409 feet from home plate.
A little 'We know that was not 425' from the twitterverse.
A little 'We know that was not 425' from the twitterverse.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 7:38 am to BoardReader
He has a 36% K rate and his BABIP is .432
He's due for a little regression
He's due for a little regression
Posted on 9/2/15 at 7:59 am to BoardReader
He's a beast and the Twins are flush with young talent. They will be fun to watch.
I still think Correa wins however because he will regress but I could see it being close
I still think Correa wins however because he will regress but I could see it being close
This post was edited on 9/2/15 at 8:00 am
Posted on 9/2/15 at 9:27 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
The numbers are similar for me. The big difference is defense. CC plays a premium position and plays it well. Sano does not. I honestly do not see sano winning the race unless CC sucks it up the next month. All sano does is hit, and very well I might add, but CC has similar number(I know more AB's) and plays a great D which is not forgotten in voting.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 11:13 pm to iamAG
quote:
The numbers are similar for me. The big difference is defense. CC plays a premium position and plays it well. Sano does not. I honestly do not see sano winning the race unless CC sucks it up the next month. All sano does is hit, and very well I might add, but CC has similar number(I know more AB's) and plays a great D which is not forgotten in voting.
The numbers aren't going to end up that similar. Sano's productivity rates could fall off, and he'd still put up better numbers than Correa by the end of the year.
He hit yet another telegenic bomb tonight, providing the first run in a shutout of the Sox. He'll end up with more offense, in less time than Correa-- the end questions are really 'how much more', and 'does it provide enough distance to make him a ROY contender?'
I think the answers are going to be a fair bit. I think the optics are going to help him a lot-- the kid may only hit 3 more HRs, and only knock in about 5 more runs than Correa, but they'll be the sort of ridiculous photo ops that attract voters who don't pay super close attention.
Posted on 9/2/15 at 11:44 pm to BoardReader
Eh idk bout the attracting voters part. Sano is absolutely a beast and may very well finish in a position that's deserving of ROTY. But being the #1 pick and #1 prospect in MLB before being called up and immediately becoming the anchor of a team that is leading the division (for now 
) has made him become a very well known player by fans and the media
) has made him become a very well known player by fans and the media
Posted on 9/2/15 at 11:46 pm to BoardReader
Sano will probably win it when the Astros don't make the playoffs.
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