Mathematical Comparison of FSU's Season To Bamas

So I am appalled at how inept the committee is at finding a way to compare an undefeated team to a 1 loss team. So I came up with 2 methods that help illustrate it. The first is for the mathematically challenged.

In order to compare "apples to apples", we need to give Florida State a loss since you can't undo Oregon or Bamas loss. An easy way to do that is to put 2 hypothetical games against the 2 teams closest to them on the schedule. Put 1 game as away and 1 as home and give them a win in one and a loss in the other. Since this would be the expected result, it neither improves nor hurts their resume. Now you can compare the resumes. With FSU, the teams to be added would be Oregon and Alabama. But lets even be conservative and say Wisconsin and Oklahoma since some aren't positive FSU is elite. That would be one of the hardest schedules in college football and definitely better than Alabama or Oregon's. Note that they would also still have 2 more wins than all other 1 loss teams.

The second is mathematical and I worked it out. I went through Bama and FSU's schedule and assigned a probability of a generic top 5 team winning each game on their schedule. So for example, 75% chance of beating Clemson at home, 65% chance of beating Arkansas on the road, etc. I then calculated the odds of a team going undefeated with Florida State's schedule and going 1 loss or better with Bamas, both including the championship game.

Chances of going undefeated with Florida State's is 5.25%. Chances of finishing with 1 loss or better with Bama's schedule is 16.27%. Shouldn't this be by far the most important thing? Maybe if the impressiveness of the feat were within a couple of percentage points, you can look at style points, but Jesus Christ....... People really don't understand how massive of a difference there is statistically between going undefeated and having 1 loss.

Another trap people fall into is overvaluing big games and undervaluing the medium opponents. Bamas schedule is better but not as much as you would think. They have 3 jokes of out of conference schedule that total to basically free wins. Between @oklahohoma State(.8), Notre Dame(.8), and Florida(.8), thats the equivalent of playing a team with only a 51.2% chance of winning. So basically playing Bama or Oregon at home. Anybody disregarding FSU's non conference schedule needs to understand that.

If anybody wants to make up their own numbers and run it, I can show you how or send you the spreadsheet to plug them in. The point is its ridiculous to just spout off unsubstantiated nonsense like "FSU would have 4 losses in the SEC West" or "10 other teams would go undefeated with FSU's schedule" when a little bit of math and logic can help put things into perspective.