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Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:43 am to barry
I agree, Barry.
He's got 10-15 more WAR in him, imo and he's been a sabermetrician's dream player his entire career.
I know it's a bit arbitrary but 5 times he's finished top 7 in MVP voting and he'll definitely finish high again this year.
17th in history in OPS+
12th in history of OBP
He's definitely getting in
He's got 10-15 more WAR in him, imo and he's been a sabermetrician's dream player his entire career.
I know it's a bit arbitrary but 5 times he's finished top 7 in MVP voting and he'll definitely finish high again this year.
17th in history in OPS+
12th in history of OBP
He's definitely getting in
This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 5:44 am
Posted on 8/23/17 at 6:44 am to OxyCodine
Lock
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:07 am to ZZTIGERS
quote:
and he's not putting up the sexy counting stats that people love...RBIs(he's 19th since 2010), HRs(he's 15th since 2010), and Runs(he's 7th since 2010)
How convenient
Posted on 8/23/17 at 7:34 am to Pilot Tiger
quote:
He's definitely getting in
Nah, it's not definite.
He still needs to finish out his career strongly and avoid the injury bug, which is something he's been pretty fortunate with overall.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:32 am to OxyCodine
quote:
Joey Votto Hall of Fame Chances?
In
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:46 am to Lester Earl
quote:
How convenient
I know...Although you provided nothing of substance, I could explain how RBI opportunities are dependent on what other people do. Nonetheless, Votto's career slash with RISP is .334/.486/.593. I could explain that he has 200 HRs since 2010, a 25 HR/year average thus far, not exactly pedestrian. Or that runs scored is dependent on someone driving him in, and yet he still ranks 7th in that time frame.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:29 am to ZZTIGERS
Votto is clearly below Miggy as a hitter since 2010 when you consider their home ballpark and playoff stats
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:43 am to ZZTIGERS
quote:
Nonetheless, Votto's career slash with RISP is .334/.486/.593. I could explain that he has 200 HRs since 2010, a 25 HR/year average thus far, not exactly pedestrian.
Or that maybe he had been just a little too patient in years past worrying about taking a walk instead of driving in runs & hitting HRs like he's paid to do. Like he is doing this year as he's swinging at more close pitches
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:27 am to Lester Earl
quote:
Or that maybe he had been just a little too patient in years past worrying about taking a walk instead of driving in runs & hitting HRs like he's paid to do. Like he is doing this year as he's swinging at more close pitches
Jesus Christ, this argument again?
And, his plate discipline is better this season than his entire career. He is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone (19% compared to his career average of 22.8%), while swinging at roughly the same rate as his career average (41.5% in 2017 compared to 41.8% for his career) according to Pitch Info Plate Discipline on fangraphs.
Also, he still leads the team in RBI this year despite having Billy Hamilton, the starter with the worst OBP, hitting in front of him all season. I think Joey Votto is doing exactly what he is getting paid to do.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:08 pm to Hogssmellgood
O- contact % 2017 77.5%
O-context career 67.5%
Explain
O-context career 67.5%
Explain
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:49 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
O- contact % 2017 77.5%
O-context career 67.5%
Explain
He is still swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than his career average and making contact with more of them. Pretty easy to do that math.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:56 pm to Hogssmellgood
Baseball Musings has an interesting database called RBI%. Basically, your % of baserunners you drive in. They use runners on base, not RISP. I searched since 2010 until today, using a minimum of 2000 runners on base and Votto currently stands @ 16.06%. #1 is Miguel Cabrera @ 18.75%. Of course this doesn't take into account when he draws a walk, that actually hurts him in this respect. So, for every 100 runners in this time frame, Cabrera, the RBI% champion, is driving in an extra 2.69 runners, round it 3. Not exactly earth shattering.
What's interesting is that there's guys behind Votto that are known for being RBI machines, power hitters or not the patient hitter that Votto is, let's say contact hitters. Guys like Encarnacion, Stanton, Altuve, Rizzo & Freeman. I think Votto catches a lot of shite, simply because he's Votto.
ETA: To put it in even a better perspective, using Cabrera & Votto in the above mentioned time frame, let's say they average between 2.5-3 base runners a game, that comes out to one extra RBI every 12 games.
What's interesting is that there's guys behind Votto that are known for being RBI machines, power hitters or not the patient hitter that Votto is, let's say contact hitters. Guys like Encarnacion, Stanton, Altuve, Rizzo & Freeman. I think Votto catches a lot of shite, simply because he's Votto.
ETA: To put it in even a better perspective, using Cabrera & Votto in the above mentioned time frame, let's say they average between 2.5-3 base runners a game, that comes out to one extra RBI every 12 games.
This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 8/23/17 at 1:14 pm to barry
quote:
Hate to do this, but his chances are way higher than slim.
I was trying to do a quick one over, not a deep dive. But yeah, he needs to raise his profile and he's 33. How many more years do you think he has left? If he's like this for another few years, then yeah. Much better chance. But that would be a highly unusual aging pattern. Players with Votto's skill set (the old man skills of power and patience) tend to age terribly.
quote:
McGriff is retired, Votto is 33.
No shite. The point is: Votto needs to improve his resume. As you point out, he's 33. Past his prime years and needing to hold off the aging curve.
quote:
He's not a power hitting first baseman....thats why. He's a career .313 hitter with a .427 OBP.
He is a power hitter, but put that aside... how have high average 1st basemen done on the balloting? Helton's not in. Neither is Keith Hernandez, and he gets a defense bonus. Bill Terry is in, but he played in the 20's and 30s. Will Clark's not in. Cpeda barely made it, but he also has 400 HR. Mattingly's out. So is Grace. Olerud isn't getting in. 1st base is a power position and almost all of the guys in the Hall post-WWI were power hitters.
quote:
DUDE. All star games?
Yes. All-Star Games. They are a great metric for telling you how a guy was viewed in his time. As time moves on, people forget how players were regarded at the time, and these are a great measure of how a player was perceived. Cepeda probably got in because he went to 11 All-Star Games and had near irrefutable evidence he was regarded as one of the games' best when he played.
The average Hall of Famer has 66.4 WAR, 44.8 WAR7, and 54.6 JAWS. Votto has 53.2, 44.0, 48.6. He needs to add WAR and JAWS, his WAR7 is just below the average. It won't keep him out, but it won't get him in.
quote:
He needs to age OK. He needs maybe another 10 WAR
First off, that would be aging well. We underestimate the arging curve of players. It tends to go quickly. But add 10 WAR. He's still beneath the average 1st baseman in the Hall. He's borderline, but he's not at the Hall standard.
Helton is on the ballot. He's at 61.2/46.4/53.8. McGwire has steroid issues, but he's gotten no traction at 62.0/41.9/51.9. Olerud is at 58.0/38.9/48.5 and he got 0.7% of the vote and fell of the ballot.
Votto has to at least get to 60 career WAR to be a viable candidate. Especially because he will likely be viewed negatively in contrast to Cabrera.
Finally, voters haven't changed nearly as much as you think. There's been a shift, but guys still get in on their traditional stats (with an assist from JAWS and WAR)
Posted on 8/23/17 at 2:28 pm to Hogssmellgood
quote:
Pretty easy to do that math.
Seems like it's giving you trouble. I'll break it down for you: He's hitting pitches outside of the zone at a career rate.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 2:44 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Seems like it's giving you trouble. I'll break it down for you: He's hitting pitches outside of the zone at a career rate.
But he's swinging at pitches out of the zone at a career low rate. Wasn't the argument that he needed to swing more?
Posted on 8/23/17 at 2:53 pm to The Seaward
He did need to swing more but he's cut his K's down at a career rate as well & it's helped mask that. He's putting the ball in play more which is what the main point has always been. We've seen what it's done to his counting stats
Posted on 8/25/17 at 9:57 am to VerlanderBEAST
quote:
Votto is clearly below Miggy as a hitter since 2010 when you consider their home ballpark and playoff stats
wRC+ controls for things like ballpark.
since 2010
Votto: 163
Miggy: 161
Posted on 8/25/17 at 10:18 am to Baloo
quote:
Will Clark's not in. Cpeda barely made it, but he also has 400 HR. Mattingly's out. So is Grace. Olerud isn't getting in. 1st base is a power position and almost all of the guys in the Hall post-WWI were power hitters.
Come on, votto already has had a better career than all those guys.
Helton has the whole Coors field thing, his OPS+ is good, but not very HOF at 134, the same as Travis Hafner. and his career road OPS is a very good, but not great .855.
I'll give you Keith is a decent argument but Votto had a much better peak than Keith.
quote:
layers with Votto's skill set (the old man skills of power and patience) tend to age terribly.
Thats NOT his skillset, he's not a power hitter. His skill set is contact and patience, with some power. THAT is a skill set that ages well. True 3 outcome players with poor contact are who age poorly.
quote:
Finally, voters haven't changed nearly as much as you think. There's been a shift, but guys still get in on their traditional stats (with an assist from JAWS and WAR)
I disagree, the current group of writers LOVE Votto and also he's not only a good hitter but he's very good at doing certain things like making solid contact and getting on base. Like all time great at those things. I think this helps in the HOF discussion, to have a niche.
Posted on 8/25/17 at 11:11 am to barry
wRC+ does struggle to properly rate Coors and its effect on their road splits. Rockies are often underrated in adjusted stats.
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