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re: I still am not sure how UVa and Duke are both getting 1 seeds?
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:54 am to sms151t
Posted on 3/9/15 at 10:54 am to sms151t
At the moment, UVA is very clearly a one seed based on body of work. Duke is a one seed too, but it's a little more tenuous. I think either would keep their spot despite a loss, provided their loss comes in the ACC championship to the other. UVA might even be able to withstand a loss to UNC or Louisville depending on the outlook for Anderson's injury.
1
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:00 am to Crowknowsbest
quote:
At the moment, UVA is very clearly a one seed based on body of work. Duke is a one seed too, but it's a little more tenuous.
I think you can switch Virginia and Duke.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:01 am to sms151t
quote:Then, you dumb.
I still am not sure how UVa and Duke are both getting 1 seeds
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:02 am to hoopsgalore
Duke has 3 losses to UVA's 2. Duke's losses to @NC State and vs. Miami drop them below UVA imo. It's about body of work, not head to head.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:04 am to sms151t
So if 2 of the top 4 teams in the country are in the same conference, one of them should not be a top 4 seed because...they lost in the ACC Champ game to another top 4 team.
Makes sense.
Makes sense.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:12 am to sms151t
Duke beat Wisconsin on their floor and also won at Virginia and at Louisville. Wisconsin has few marquee wins and lost to a pretty terrible Rutgers team. This is an easy call for me, even if Duke loses another game.
The Big East isn't what it used to be, but Villanova is destroying everyone.
The Big East isn't what it used to be, but Villanova is destroying everyone.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:14 am to Crowknowsbest
quote:
Duke has 3 losses to UVA's 2. Duke's losses to @NC State and vs. Miami drop them below UVA imo. It's about body of work, not head to head.
I know it is about body of work. You can listen to the talking heads and they'll say the same thing I did.
Right now, Duke has wins @Wisconsin, v. Michigan State (neutral), UNC x2, @Louisville, @UVA, and v. ND. You'll be hard-pressed to find a team in the country with a more impressive set of wins.
Duke is 6-1 v. RPI Top 25
Virginia is 5-2 v. RPI Top 25
Duke is 10-2 v. RPI Top 50
Virginia is 8-2 v. RPI Top 50
Duke is 17-3 v. RPI Top 100
Virginia is 15-2 v. RPI Top 100
Duke is 21-3 v. RPI Top 150
Virginia is 21-2 v. RPI Top 150
At this point, Duke is closer to a No. 1 seed lock than anyone not named Kentucky. The wins are just too impressive for their current seed to be 'tenuous.'
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:20 am to hoopsgalore
quote:
At this point, Duke is closer to a No. 1 seed lock than anyone not named Kentucky. The wins are just too impressive for their current seed to be 'tenuous.'
First off, I don't think either are that tenuous. Both will likely get a 1 imo. There's no denying the quality of wins that Duke has.
UVA has wins @Maryland, @UNC, @ND, vs. Louisville, @ full strength VCU. Basically I think both should be 1 seeds.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:22 am to Crowknowsbest
Kentucky
Virginia
Duke
Villanova
Virginia
Duke
Villanova
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:23 am to hoopsgalore
That comp is Duke versus UVa, which says nothing about both getting one seeds. Expand your comp, leaving out Kentucky, who is a no-brainer 1-seed.
V. RPI top 25
Duke 6-1
UVa 5-2
Nova 6-1
Wisky 2-2
Zona 3-0
v. RPI top 50
Duke 10-2
UVa 8-2
Nova 11-1
Wisky 8-2
Zona 6-0
v. RPI top 100
Duke 17-3
UVa 15-2
Nova 15-2
Wisky 15-2
Zona 13-2
Considering the fact that Duke is the only team in that group without a conference title, I don't see how you can call them a 1-seed lock. Looking at those breakdowns, Villanova clearly has the best resume, and I'd argue Arizona has the second best. They don't have a lot of top 50 wins, but they are undefeated. And against the top 100, they have the same winning percentage as the other squads.
If Duke were running away on the metrics, I can see giving them a one seed over everyone despite the lack of a title, but I just don't see their resume as being considerably better than anyone else's save Wisconsin (who I just can't justify giving a one seed, which is a shame, because I like them better than any team in this grouping, and they are gonna get the Kentucky screw job).
If Duke wins the ACC tourney, I would give them the 1-seed over UVa, and I can see both of them getting one if both Nova and Zona fall in their tourneys. But right now, I'd still go UK, Nova, Zona, ACC champ.
V. RPI top 25
Duke 6-1
UVa 5-2
Nova 6-1
Wisky 2-2
Zona 3-0
v. RPI top 50
Duke 10-2
UVa 8-2
Nova 11-1
Wisky 8-2
Zona 6-0
v. RPI top 100
Duke 17-3
UVa 15-2
Nova 15-2
Wisky 15-2
Zona 13-2
Considering the fact that Duke is the only team in that group without a conference title, I don't see how you can call them a 1-seed lock. Looking at those breakdowns, Villanova clearly has the best resume, and I'd argue Arizona has the second best. They don't have a lot of top 50 wins, but they are undefeated. And against the top 100, they have the same winning percentage as the other squads.
If Duke were running away on the metrics, I can see giving them a one seed over everyone despite the lack of a title, but I just don't see their resume as being considerably better than anyone else's save Wisconsin (who I just can't justify giving a one seed, which is a shame, because I like them better than any team in this grouping, and they are gonna get the Kentucky screw job).
If Duke wins the ACC tourney, I would give them the 1-seed over UVa, and I can see both of them getting one if both Nova and Zona fall in their tourneys. But right now, I'd still go UK, Nova, Zona, ACC champ.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 11:48 am to Baloo
quote:
I'd argue Arizona has the second best. They don't have a lot of top 50 wins, but they are undefeated. And against the top 100, they have the same winning percentage as the other squads.
But three losses (way) outside the top 50, and I don't see enough quality wins to counter that.
I think the 'vs. the top X' records get obscured when they overlap. Break it down like this:
vs. 1-25
Duke 6-1
Arizona 3-0
vs. 26-50
Duke 4-1
Arizona 3-0
vs. 51-100
Duke 7-1
Arizona 7-2
vs. 101+
Duke 11-0
Arizona 15-1
I have always like Arizona, but the west coast hasn't offered them enough quality competition this year, IMO.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 1:42 pm to Baloo
I am still not sold on the idea of both getting 1 seeds, although people have made good arguments on both sides.
I also think winning the regular season and a conference tourney title like Wisconsin and Arizona have the chance to do should weigh heavily in that. Championships should matter, as they completed what was asked of them to do.
I also think winning the regular season and a conference tourney title like Wisconsin and Arizona have the chance to do should weigh heavily in that. Championships should matter, as they completed what was asked of them to do.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 1:57 pm to sms151t
Yeah, to be clear, I'm not arguing that Duke shouldn't be a #1, just that I'm reluctant to call them a lock. No one outside of Kentucky is a lock, mainly because there's five teams just about even for three slots. Though I like Arizona's resume more than some. Yes, it doesn't have the volume of wins, but it is in the same ration, and that's just the reality of a west coast team. We run into this every year. West coast teams just don't get as many chances to show their quality. But Arizona has done so within the limits of their schedule, limited by geography. It's not like they scheduled nothing but cupcakes.
I'm still trying to figure out how Kansas is #2 in the RPI. And what seed they are going to get. They'd be a 2-seed you'd pray you'd get. Sort of the anti-Wisconsin.
I'm still trying to figure out how Kansas is #2 in the RPI. And what seed they are going to get. They'd be a 2-seed you'd pray you'd get. Sort of the anti-Wisconsin.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 2:04 pm to Baloo
Kansas is gonna be a 2 unless Maryland wins the big ten tournament and Kansas does not win the big 12.
Posted on 3/9/15 at 2:21 pm to Baloo
What happens to Duke or UVa if they lose in the Quarters, more likely for Duke, or the Semi's?
UVa has Louisville and Carolina winner (Semi matchup) in their half
Duke has Notre Dame (Semi) and NC State (Quarter) in their half
UVa has Louisville and Carolina winner (Semi matchup) in their half
Duke has Notre Dame (Semi) and NC State (Quarter) in their half
This post was edited on 3/9/15 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 3/9/15 at 2:51 pm to sms151t
quote:If UVA loses to Clemson or FSU in the Quarters, they should be a 2 seed.
What happens to Duke or UVa if they lose in the Quarters, more likely for Duke, or the Semi's?
If they at least make the ACC semis, they should remain a 1 IMO. If they make the finals and lose to Duke, Duke may take the 1 seed in the East, but UVA should remain a 1 and not be shipped out West.
If UVA wins the ACCT, they should lock up the 1 seed in the East and should be the overall national #2 seed behind Kentucky.
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