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Started By
Message
re: Hedge Bet for Florida to win National Championship.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:51 am to Tiger1242
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:51 am to Tiger1242
quote:Add a zero, and you'd be safe.
So if I'm a broke arse, and the minimum I can bet on the site I use is $5
How much bankroll am I going to need to cover my $5 bet if it goes all the way? $1000?
1
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:54 am to Silky Johnston
the problem with these types of bets is the people who can afford them dont care enough to do all the work to win 5k.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:18 am to TheSexecutioner
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 10:39 am
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:22 am to TheSexecutioner
The problem is predicting future lines, but then again if they keep winning that helps you get a better bet on their opponent so you don't spend as much.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:23 am to Silky Johnston
Silky, I made the correction, and edited the numbers a bit to see what it would take to make it fit.
Missou +190, Georgia-250, Vandy+600, South Carolina+150, East Kentucky+900, Florida St-350, SEC, Playoff, and Playoff all -180.
That gives 986/1 odds. So still underpriced. You think any of those money lines are too optimistic? I think they are still a bit conservative if anything. Doesn't seem it, but you have to think that its all based on where the line would be IF Florida ran the table. That would mean they are a lot better than what current information puts them at.
Also, their wins improve their lines by knocking teams they would be heavier underdogs against out of contention. So if they beat FSU and SECW champion, than they won't have to play them as one of the playoff teams. They'll get Michigan State, Oregon, Baylor as opposed to the more heavily favored Bama or FSU.
Missou +190, Georgia-250, Vandy+600, South Carolina+150, East Kentucky+900, Florida St-350, SEC, Playoff, and Playoff all -180.
That gives 986/1 odds. So still underpriced. You think any of those money lines are too optimistic? I think they are still a bit conservative if anything. Doesn't seem it, but you have to think that its all based on where the line would be IF Florida ran the table. That would mean they are a lot better than what current information puts them at.
Also, their wins improve their lines by knocking teams they would be heavier underdogs against out of contention. So if they beat FSU and SECW champion, than they won't have to play them as one of the playoff teams. They'll get Michigan State, Oregon, Baylor as opposed to the more heavily favored Bama or FSU.
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 9:25 am
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:24 am to TheSexecutioner
You could also really gamble and not bet on the East KY game at all.
ETA: How would it change things if you took all the underdogs plus the points? If they win outright, you still win the arbitrage, but if they cover and FL wins, you win AND keep the arbitrage going.
Obviously doesn't make sense to take the favorites and give points, could present a lose/lose.
ETA: How would it change things if you took all the underdogs plus the points? If they win outright, you still win the arbitrage, but if they cover and FL wins, you win AND keep the arbitrage going.
Obviously doesn't make sense to take the favorites and give points, could present a lose/lose.
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 9:27 am
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:26 am to LSUBoo
You could. Except East Kentucky is undefeated...... Haven't played anybody worth a shite, but still, its not all that much easier than the Vandy game. And it doesn't cost much to hedge it.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:28 am to TheSexecutioner
Also, I need to make a correction. I just realized Florida does not control their own destiny. Kentucky could win out and keep them from the game. So you would have to control for that. I don't feel like running all of Kentucky's lines. The chance of them winning out is very very low though.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:32 am to TheSexecutioner
just change the bet to UK instead of UF. what is UK getting on the NC?
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:37 am to bbap
Haven't even seen it posted. But I'm sure it wouldn't work. The key is that for all the message board talk about Kentucky being pretty good this year, they are not. They are like 10 point underdogs to LSU. Would be touchdown underdogs to Florida. No way they can overcome any kind of reasonable odds.
This works because Florida is still Florida. They are going to be substantial favorites over Missouri, South Caroline(home game), Vandy, and East Carolina, and really not that big of underdogs in anything except their away game against Florida State.
Don Best has Florida as the 24th best team in the country and Kentucky as the 57th. That's based on how Vegas would put em. Pretty massive difference.
This works because Florida is still Florida. They are going to be substantial favorites over Missouri, South Caroline(home game), Vandy, and East Carolina, and really not that big of underdogs in anything except their away game against Florida State.
Don Best has Florida as the 24th best team in the country and Kentucky as the 57th. That's based on how Vegas would put em. Pretty massive difference.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:41 am to TheSexecutioner
In case you missed my edit...
ETA: How would it change things if you took all the underdogs plus the points? If they win outright, you still win the arbitrage, but if they cover and FL wins, you win AND keep the arbitrage going.
Obviously doesn't make sense to take the favorites and give points, could present a lose/lose.
ETA: How would it change things if you took all the underdogs plus the points? If they win outright, you still win the arbitrage, but if they cover and FL wins, you win AND keep the arbitrage going.
Obviously doesn't make sense to take the favorites and give points, could present a lose/lose.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:48 am to LSUBoo
quote:
ETA: How would it change things if you took all the underdogs plus the points? If they win outright, you still win the arbitrage, but if they cover and FL wins, you win AND keep the arbitrage going.
It would probably give you higher equity value since money lines are typically juiced higher than spreads. But you might not be able to guarantee profit because you are getting a worse price.
But just not hedging any of these would give you higher equity value. You are taking one underpriced bet and hedging it with a bunch of overpriced(juiced) bets. All that is doing is lowering you're expected return. In other words, if you hedge your bets, you have to beat a lot of juice as well. So its only advisable to lower the risk.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 10:15 am to TheSexecutioner
can you send the math to kjkenn01@gmail.com
Posted on 10/15/14 at 10:19 am to TheSexecutioner
Great post
ETA: I think they lose to FSU, but I hope they win their division games.
ETA: I think they lose to FSU, but I hope they win their division games.
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 10:21 am
Posted on 10/15/14 at 10:20 am to TheSexecutioner
Very interesting
Posted on 10/15/14 at 10:20 am to kkhere
Yup. I sent it. The top numbers are what you would bet to get back to even each game.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 10:48 am to bbap
quote:
the problem with these types of bets is the people who can afford them dont care enough to do all the work to win 5k.
yeah, exactly. you could sit down at a roulette table and never lose. problem is, you need thousands upon thousands upon thousands to make sure of it.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 10:50 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
yeah, exactly. you could sit down at a roulette table and never lose. problem is, you need thousands upon thousands upon thousands to make sure of it.
That's not true, they have a max bet for that exact reason. The two green spaces and the max bet throw the odds back in their favor over the long haul.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 11:10 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
yeah, exactly. you could sit down at a roulette table and never lose. problem is, you need thousands upon thousands upon thousands to make sure of it.
not really. Not even talking about bet limits. You would almost surely not lose. Thats different than it being impossible to lose.
Almost surely is a term used when talking about probabilities and infinity. I understand the concept of doubling your bets when losing.
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 11:12 am
Posted on 10/15/14 at 11:20 am to bbap
quote:
sentence makes no sense
I read it once and understood it.
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