Hedge Bet for Florida to win National Championship.

So I mentioned this in another thread, but now I've calculated it out, and I think there is some definite arbitrage on Florida. Before you start dismissing it, hear me out.

Florida controls their own destiny to win the SEC East. If they win out, they will be SEC champions and have beaten Florida State. With only 2 losses, they would be a pretty sure bet to get in to playoffs. Yet 5Dimes gives 1000/1 odds for them winning the national championship. This presents an opportunity for arbitrage(guaranteed profit) in taking Florida at 1000/1 and then betting against them until they lose. If, in the unlikely case, they never lose, all of your money lost will be less than the payout you get.

Ex: Put 100 on florida to win 1000/1. Payout is 100,000 if they win. Moneyline is Missouri +190 for this week so you put 53 on Missou. If Florida wins you are down 153 but bet is still alive. Next week, put 309 on Georgia-300(assuming this is the line). If Florida wins, you are down 461, but your bet is still alive.

I ran the numbers based on what I reasonably think the spreads will be and got 538/1 being the indifference point where hedging will net 0 dollars. That's a pretty massive arbitrage. Unfortunately, one that takes a huge payroll to exploit.

This is based on Missouri +190, Georgia-300, Vandy+360, South Carolina+140, Eastern Kentucky+1000, Florida St-600, SECW-200, Playoff 1-200, BCSNCG-200.

You must consider that it doesn't matter what the money line would be today. It matters what the money line would be at the time of any given game IF Florida runs the table up to that point. So while the SEC champion would be heavily favored over Florida today, they would not be overwhelming favorites if Florida proved themselves able to run the table against Mizzou, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida St. Also consider, the playoff games would likely not be against Florida St or an SEC team since they will have knocked them both out. So playoffs would probably be Baylor, Oregon, Mich St, etc. A little better odds than against Florida St or Alabama.

If, in the overwhelmingly likely case they prove themselves not good enough to run the table and lose a game, it doesn't matter what the spreads are. You have already made you're money back plus a profit and are done betting Florida games.

I don't have the bankroll to hedge all that, but if I can figure out how to deposit on 5dimes from Germany(tried yesterday with no success), I'm putting $20 on Florida. 1000/1 is underpriced, regardless of how mediocre Florida is.