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Message
re: Golden State has a 46% chance of winning the title - ESPN
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:35 am to Boomshockalocka
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:35 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:A subjective veiwing of the teams coupled with the objective data of their body of work so far with a touch of a gigantic coaching gap thrown in.
Based off of what?
1
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:35 am to castorinho
quote:Sure, that's why I said "essentially." BUT the expected value of series wins if 100 series of games are played is 75. Therefore, they are essentially saying the will win the series 75 out of 100.
Well not really, the odds of them losing EXACTLY 25% of games CONVERGES to 1 the more games they play, but the odds of them losing EXACTLY 25 games if they played 100 times isn't close to 1.
This post was edited on 1/29/16 at 10:42 am
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:37 am to LSU Piston
quote:
too low
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:42 am to PearlJam
Eye test tells me it's probably close but in the playoffs you side with the team with the best player.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:45 am to Boomshockalocka
Should probably see an ophthalmologist.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:48 am to lsupride87
quote:
I am saying I think there is a 25% chance of them losing due to an outside occurrence
quote:If the chances of something occuring that causes the Warriors to lose has a 25% chance of happening, then we would expect that to occur about 25% of the time (e.g., 25/100, 2500/10000, etc.). I don't know why it's so hard to think that someone like Spurs couldn't win the series 25% of the time when they are so talented and well-coached.
I am not saying I truly think they would lose the series 25/100 times.
Regardless, your initial argument is saying that there is a 75% chance they win the first round, second round, WCF, AND the finals. That number is absurdly high.
Arguing that the predictive probability is imperfect is valid, but arguing that imperfection = useless is not valid.
This post was edited on 1/29/16 at 10:54 am
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:52 am to PearlJam
quote:A professional scout does not have time for medical school.
Should probably see an ophthalmologist.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 10:53 am to buckeye_vol
*semi... It's never been/will be my full time job.
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