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Message
Golden State has a 46% chance of winning the title - ESPN
Posted on 1/29/16 at 8:58 am
Posted on 1/29/16 at 8:58 am
8
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:01 am to LSU Piston
I will be shocked if they don't win. Seems too low. Who in the hell is going to beat that team 4 games out of 7?
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:02 am to LSU Piston
Too low.
GSW 60
CLE 15
The other teams make up the other 25% in various and sundry ways.
GSW 60
CLE 15
The other teams make up the other 25% in various and sundry ways.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:02 am to SwaggerCopter
quote:
I will be shocked if they don't win. Seems too low. Who in the hell is going to beat that team 4 games out of 7?
Lue's Cavaliers
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:03 am to SwaggerCopter
On paper my Thunder are the only chance but still it's not a great chance.
We'll get a preview next week as well.
We'll get a preview next week as well.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:03 am to LSU Piston
That's a high number but it seems about right.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:06 am to SabiDojo
I'd love to see the historical accuracy for these rankings from the past few years.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:10 am to LSU Piston
The number that seems high is a West team having a 91% chance or winning.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:19 am to buckeye_vol
Seems too high because injuries can happen. I think they should be at about 30% of winning, with the %'s being higher for a lot of the teams at .1% or lower (ie the Rockets who have talent should have a 1% chance or 2% chance).
I would put it at:
GS - 30
SAS - 25
Cleve - 12
Other top 4 teams in east 4-6% each
Other teams in playoffs in west 2% each
I would put it at:
GS - 30
SAS - 25
Cleve - 12
Other top 4 teams in east 4-6% each
Other teams in playoffs in west 2% each
This post was edited on 1/29/16 at 9:20 am
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:20 am to LSU Piston
GSW 40%
SA 25%
CLE 20%
OKC 14%
Other 1%
SA 25%
CLE 20%
OKC 14%
Other 1%
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:20 am to PearlJam
I'd flip OKC and Cleveland but otherwise that's probably about right.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:22 am to SwaggerCopter
quote:Ever since David Lee got better 19 years ago, they've been injury-free. Something has to snap sooner or later, right?
I will be shocked if they don't win.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:24 am to ballscaster
I have this feeling they'll win it this year and then wear and tear will hit them next season.
However: if they continue to crush teams like this (and give Curry and Green 4th quarter rests), then who knows? They're also so damn deep.
However: if they continue to crush teams like this (and give Curry and Green 4th quarter rests), then who knows? They're also so damn deep.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:31 am to Buckeye06
quote:
GS - 30
SAS - 25
Cleve - 12
Other top 4 teams in east 4-6% each
Other teams in playoffs in west 2% each
I think you have to have Cleveland behind GSW. There is very little doubt that Cleveland will represent the East, so that is half the battle. Sure SAS are a better team than Cleveland, but they'll have to beat GSW AND Cleveland. Cleveland should have better odds than everyone but GSW because they're basically a lock to get to the Finals.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:37 am to LSU Piston
FTR, VegasInsider's NBA Championship futures look like this:
That is an implied winning percentage of:
38.46% for GSW
33.33% for SAS
22.73% for CLE
5.26% for OKC
3.85% for LAC
Keep in mind that implied winning percentages in futures don't necessarily have to add up to 100%.
That is an implied winning percentage of:
38.46% for GSW
33.33% for SAS
22.73% for CLE
5.26% for OKC
3.85% for LAC
Keep in mind that implied winning percentages in futures don't necessarily have to add up to 100%.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:39 am to okietiger
quote:The problem with that is OKC's most likely path after the first round is SAS, GSW, then CLE. So if CLE and OKC are generally equal teams, CLE probabilty is much higher based on the far easier path.
I'd flip OKC and Cleveland but otherwise that's probably about right.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:52 am to buckeye_vol
I disagree with this %. I understand math and I understand how they will be favored in every series individually, but that prognosis over the course of a playoffs lends itself to a mathematical chance below 50%. However, I believe using mathematical analysis in sports lends itself to a fallacy. Golden States true chance of winning the title IMHO is up around 75%.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:56 am to SwaggerCopter
quote:
I will be shocked if they don't win. Seems too low. Who in the hell is going to beat that team 4 games out of 7?
While I tend to agree, you can still get great odds on them if you want - 8/5 last I saw which would mean a $100 bet would win $160 plus your bet back.
As for the conference championship odds:
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:56 am to okietiger
quote:If they were head to head, I'd pick okc, but path to finals comes into play.
I'd flip OKC and Cleveland but otherwise that's probably about right.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 9:59 am to LSU Piston
Already?
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