re: DAT 2015-2016 Offseason Thread

So I looked at some numbers, but what do these numbers tell you guys?

Player A

dWAR -0.1
oWAR 2.4
WAR 2.6

Player B

dWAR 0.5
oWAR. 2.1
WAR 2.8

Sure, but what do you guys think of the numbers, comparatively?

Pretty similar players, I agree, but I'm sure advanced stats could debunk this one way or another.

Anyway, second player is Alex Gordon.

People wanting Gordon. Other than being an all-star and slightly better on defense, I don't think he's so much better to make a difference in the W/L column.

I get my numbers from bRef. If I'm not careful, I'll spend an hour or two on that site and not even realize it.

But back to the comparison, do we have much room to complain about veering away from Gordon when their numbers, in the end, are pretty similar? Gordon's on base numbers and averages are a bit higher, but does Rasmus' power numbers and beast mode in the playoffs sort of even out?


Look, I'll admit, Gordon is a fine player. I like him too. Hes also 31. Downside of his prime. Colby put up some string numbers just entering his prime.

There's all kind of options to look at. But I don't think there's so much difference to be upset about bringing back Colby.

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Gordon is the better contact and OBP guy by far. The reason why Luhnow likes him so much for us is that he would be the ideal No 2. hitter for this team

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Who knows? They may still bring him in and send Tucker packing in a deal for a closer.


With that said, I think he's a 7 or 8 hole hitter.

I have zero issues with Springer leading off. I think he's comfortable there as well

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But back to the comparison, do we have much room to complain about veering away from Gordon when their numbers, in the end, are pretty similar?

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WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?”

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In my eyes, WAR isn't the ultimate way of guaging a players value (actually I'm not sure what is). WAR gauges Rasmus' value above playing someone like Robbie Grossman. Rasmus and Gordon are clearly better than someone like him and they compare to each other favorably in that regard. They've both got a skillset that makes them better than a replacement level player.

I know we ridicule wRC+ (sorry Prom ) but it has its place if we're not solely relying on it as the end all be all of whether or not a player is good (looks at Carter). Its a pretty good way of measuring offensive value as compared to league average. League average wRC+ is 100

Rasmus in 2015: 115
Gordon in 2015: 122

Or Rasmus is 15% better offensively than average, Gordon is 22% better. That's basically a push to me.

The real difference in the two is defensively. You can use defensive runs saved for a face value number:

2015 Rasmus: 2 (10 for his career)
2015 Gordon: 7 (94 for his career)

Gordon had a down year defensively (by his standards). Whether he's trending downward or the injury hampered him I don't know. Gorodn's DSR in 2014 was 27. But the career numbers show that Gordon is a lot better defensively.

"Ultimate Zone Rating" is the so called measure of a players defensive value vs league average.

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It compares the event that actually happened (hit/out/error) to data on similarly hit balls in the past to determine how much better or worse the fielder did than the "average" player.

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Rasmus UZR in 2015: 0.5
Gordon UZR in 2015: 6.5


Comparing all that shite, Gordon is the more valuable player RIGHT NOW. The offense is similar on a sabermetric level but Gordon gets the edge with his defense. Here's the problem with that though. Gordon will be 32 before next season. Much of his value is rooted in his defense which you wonder if he'll be able to maintain over the course of what will likely be at least a 5 year deal. Colby will be 29 through next season. He's still very near to what is considered the "peak" of a baseball players career. Gordon is on the backside of it.

If we're choosing a player on a 1 year deal. Give me Gordon and I don't think twice about it. If we're talking Colby on a 1/$15.8 vs Gordon on a 5/100+. I'll take Colby. Although if Gomez sticks around, we could be looking at needing to fill 2 OF spots. Next years FA OF crop looks like shite to me.

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Although if Gomez sticks around, we could be looking at needing to fill 2 OF spots. Next years FA OF crop looks like shite to me.

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This is the interesting part to me. Do they try to work out a longer deal with one of those two. Or do they think one of Tucker, Marisnick, Fisher, Kemp will be ready to step in full time in '17.

Also, it's nice to finally be thinking about maximizing MLB roster.

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I'm not disappointed in bringing Colby back. Hopefully he's found his swing in Houston and he will play in his prime there.

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I like it. Bird in the hand kind of thing.

Weiters signed qualifying offer