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re: Clemson - Notre Dame Thoughts?
Posted on 9/30/15 at 3:06 pm to Billy Mays
Posted on 9/30/15 at 3:06 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
ND has been a great road team in big games under Kelly. Vegas seems to agree that ND is the better team.
Didn't it open at Clemson -2?
ND always gets a point or two bump because the public loves them and home field is usually worth around 3 so they're basically telling you they think these two teams are even.
The teams are actually extremely similar in a lot of ways.
2
Posted on 9/30/15 at 3:10 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
This is the perfect "Clemsoning" scenario.
Gamecocks are winless in the SEC and talking shite about a Clemson game on primetime, order has been officially restored lol.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 3:21 pm to FootballNostradamus
Posted on 9/30/15 at 3:23 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
Didn't it open at Clemson -2?
Yes, but you have to assume 3-5 points for homefield advantage, meaning Vegas thinks ND would be favored on a neutral field.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 3:37 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Yes, but you have to assume 3-5 points for homefield advantage, meaning Vegas thinks ND would be favored on a neutral field.
You also have to assume that the Cowboys/Notre Dames of the world are always worth and extra point or two for the other team given the public's affinity for them.
Regardless of whether Vegas thinks it's a +/-1 point game, they're basically saying it's a toss-up.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 3:43 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
Gamecocks are winless in the SEC and talking shite about a Clemson game on primetime, order has been officially restored lol.
Lol overhanded reaction to my comment.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 4:18 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
Cowboys/Notre Dames of the world are always worth and extra point or two for the other team given the public's affinity for them.
most people bet against dallas/notre dame, not for them
its quite obvious vegas thinks ND is the better team here
Posted on 9/30/15 at 5:18 pm to rocket31
quote:
most people bet against dallas/notre dame, not for them
What, who told you this lie?
It's inarguable that certain historical programs (Notre Dame, USC, Cowboys) get more people betting for than against them.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 6:06 pm to FootballNostradamus
Like the other guy said, Chris Brown, Amir Carlisle, Torii Hunter Jr., and Corey Robinson are all solid receivers. Chris Brown is probably the best of that bunch and is having a good year. Robinson has somewhat disappeared (not getting the reps behind Brown), but both Carlisle and Hunter Jr. are capable in the slot. None are super-explosive gamebreakers like Fuller, but they can all hurt you.
We don't have much of a TE receiving threat with Durham Smythe out for the year. Luatua, if he plays (concussion issues), is a great blocker and will occasionally be good for a flat. Aliz'e Jones is a freak athlete and good pass-catcher (especially for a freshman), but he's also a true freshman still learning the offense. He'll get some targets on Saturday, but it will be situational.
The offensive line is awesome - I don't think that's any secret. We have two, maybe three, first round picks on there right now and everyone will get drafted in the first three rounds. As much as Stanley (and to a lesser extant Martin) gets the publicity, Mike McGlinchey is probably having the best year of any of them. He has been, literally, perfect - no sacks, no hurries, no TFL's, and (I think) no penalties.
Kizer is what he is. He's a talented, smart player still getting experience, and he'll probably play well most of the game, but he's good for at least one bone-headed play. He's big and tough to bring down and has a solid arm. He short-hops a few throws every single game, especially throwing left. He needs to work on his footwork.
The defensive line is good. It had the potential to be an elite unit if Jarron Jones had stayed healthy, but alas. Sheldon Day is really good; he'll have a long NFL career. Isaac Rochell is having a hell of a year. Okwara is good for a few plays a game, and the Tillery/Cage spot is talented but young. They're pretty damn stout against the run, but they lack a true, game-changing pass-rusher (part of the reason I think our secondary is having problems).
Linebacker starts with Jaylon Smith. He's a freak - probably top ten overall pick and, with Myles Jack out, almost certainly the best LB in the country right now. He does it all and does it all very well. I am certain Dabo will be telling Watson to play away from him the whole game. Joe Schmidt is a smart, physical player and a great leader and communicator, but I think he might be a little out-matched in foot speed at times in this game. Onwualu is a good athlete and smart player but still looks raw sometimes.
Secondary has been a disappointment. They are, no doubt, talented. KeiVarae Russell was projected by some as a first rounder coming into this season and a pre-season All-American (and was the best corner on our 2012 team as a freshman). He missed last season due to academic suspension and is still getting his bearings back. Cole Luke had a very good year last year, and some were talking him to go pro after this year. Redfield was a 5 star, all-everything coming out of high school and has shown flashes. Shumate was highly rated and highly recruited, has shown flashes, but has never blossomed like we thought.
That group is a very good collection of athletes - they never get beat in footraces, and the corners are still damn good cover corners. They're tough to beat one on one (especially Russell). I think it's a combination of scheme, lack of communication, and the absence of a true leader/field general back there. They've had stretches of good play and certainly have the players to make it happen, but it hasn't come to fruition. They get out of position too often for me to feel comfortable.
We don't have much of a TE receiving threat with Durham Smythe out for the year. Luatua, if he plays (concussion issues), is a great blocker and will occasionally be good for a flat. Aliz'e Jones is a freak athlete and good pass-catcher (especially for a freshman), but he's also a true freshman still learning the offense. He'll get some targets on Saturday, but it will be situational.
The offensive line is awesome - I don't think that's any secret. We have two, maybe three, first round picks on there right now and everyone will get drafted in the first three rounds. As much as Stanley (and to a lesser extant Martin) gets the publicity, Mike McGlinchey is probably having the best year of any of them. He has been, literally, perfect - no sacks, no hurries, no TFL's, and (I think) no penalties.
Kizer is what he is. He's a talented, smart player still getting experience, and he'll probably play well most of the game, but he's good for at least one bone-headed play. He's big and tough to bring down and has a solid arm. He short-hops a few throws every single game, especially throwing left. He needs to work on his footwork.
The defensive line is good. It had the potential to be an elite unit if Jarron Jones had stayed healthy, but alas. Sheldon Day is really good; he'll have a long NFL career. Isaac Rochell is having a hell of a year. Okwara is good for a few plays a game, and the Tillery/Cage spot is talented but young. They're pretty damn stout against the run, but they lack a true, game-changing pass-rusher (part of the reason I think our secondary is having problems).
Linebacker starts with Jaylon Smith. He's a freak - probably top ten overall pick and, with Myles Jack out, almost certainly the best LB in the country right now. He does it all and does it all very well. I am certain Dabo will be telling Watson to play away from him the whole game. Joe Schmidt is a smart, physical player and a great leader and communicator, but I think he might be a little out-matched in foot speed at times in this game. Onwualu is a good athlete and smart player but still looks raw sometimes.
Secondary has been a disappointment. They are, no doubt, talented. KeiVarae Russell was projected by some as a first rounder coming into this season and a pre-season All-American (and was the best corner on our 2012 team as a freshman). He missed last season due to academic suspension and is still getting his bearings back. Cole Luke had a very good year last year, and some were talking him to go pro after this year. Redfield was a 5 star, all-everything coming out of high school and has shown flashes. Shumate was highly rated and highly recruited, has shown flashes, but has never blossomed like we thought.
That group is a very good collection of athletes - they never get beat in footraces, and the corners are still damn good cover corners. They're tough to beat one on one (especially Russell). I think it's a combination of scheme, lack of communication, and the absence of a true leader/field general back there. They've had stretches of good play and certainly have the players to make it happen, but it hasn't come to fruition. They get out of position too often for me to feel comfortable.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 6:33 pm to AbuTheMonkey
If weather forecast holds up with lots of rain, I think that favors ND with their big OL and running game.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 6:59 pm to AbuTheMonkey
Good stuff Abu. I'm gonna be really curious to see how Clemson attacks Smith. Like you mentioned, he's a freak. I haven't seen a better CFB player all year.
I really wish we still had Morris for such a challenge. When we went up against Ohio State and Ricky Shazier, Morris put together an absolutely brilliant gameplan. Shazier (when healthy) is close to dominant in the NFL, and Morris made him look like a scrub. It was a beautiful thing to watch. I don't have that same kind of confidence in our current staff, but maybe they'll surprise me.
I don't mean to sound overly confident, but Clemson's DL for the past 2 years has pretty much dominated every single NFL OL they've faced. When we faced OSU 2 years ago they were supposed to be the best OL in the country, and we ended Braxton Miller's career as a QB in that game. In the FSU game last year we dominated their OL as well.
Our front 7, especially with the huge safeties we have providing support, is very good against the run. Like you, however, we lack a true pass rushing threat, though. That might be the true test of this game, who can actually get home to the QB. I really don't think ND will be able to lineup and run at will on Clemson. The only team who ever really did that was UGA with Gurley, and that was only in the second half after our pathetic offense had gone three-and-out like 4 drives in a row and the D had no legs.
It will be interesting to see how each team comes at the other's QB. Venables has always put together incredibly well-timed blitzes, and I really like Boulware as a blitzing LB, but he has to go up against a veteran OL that won't be fooled by much if anything. I'm sure Notre Dame with BVG would love to do the same thing (Smith off the edge sounds terrifying), but they have to deal with a true dual threat QB who can really kill you if you lose contain or blow an assignment in coverage.
The more I think about it the more I think that's where it's decided. I don't think either team will run exceptionally well on the other and barring the typical wildcard factors (special teams and turnovers), who and how they're able to get home to the QB will likely decide this game.
I really wish we still had Morris for such a challenge. When we went up against Ohio State and Ricky Shazier, Morris put together an absolutely brilliant gameplan. Shazier (when healthy) is close to dominant in the NFL, and Morris made him look like a scrub. It was a beautiful thing to watch. I don't have that same kind of confidence in our current staff, but maybe they'll surprise me.
I don't mean to sound overly confident, but Clemson's DL for the past 2 years has pretty much dominated every single NFL OL they've faced. When we faced OSU 2 years ago they were supposed to be the best OL in the country, and we ended Braxton Miller's career as a QB in that game. In the FSU game last year we dominated their OL as well.
Our front 7, especially with the huge safeties we have providing support, is very good against the run. Like you, however, we lack a true pass rushing threat, though. That might be the true test of this game, who can actually get home to the QB. I really don't think ND will be able to lineup and run at will on Clemson. The only team who ever really did that was UGA with Gurley, and that was only in the second half after our pathetic offense had gone three-and-out like 4 drives in a row and the D had no legs.
It will be interesting to see how each team comes at the other's QB. Venables has always put together incredibly well-timed blitzes, and I really like Boulware as a blitzing LB, but he has to go up against a veteran OL that won't be fooled by much if anything. I'm sure Notre Dame with BVG would love to do the same thing (Smith off the edge sounds terrifying), but they have to deal with a true dual threat QB who can really kill you if you lose contain or blow an assignment in coverage.
The more I think about it the more I think that's where it's decided. I don't think either team will run exceptionally well on the other and barring the typical wildcard factors (special teams and turnovers), who and how they're able to get home to the QB will likely decide this game.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 7:50 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
turnovers
Where the game will be won and lost
Posted on 9/30/15 at 7:58 pm to tigerpimpbot
quote:
If they beat Clemson, the will have to shite the bed to lose 2 games. They'll be a playoff lock with 1 loss and some conference champs will get fricked.
This is true... A one loss ND team knocks a one loss Pac-12 or Big 12 team...
Posted on 9/30/15 at 9:15 pm to FootballNostradamus
I am surprised at how good ND has been despite all of their injuries especially at QB. Just think where they'd be if healthy. I think Clemson's QB experience will be the difference. ND won't at all be in awe of the environment. They play under the bright lights a lot. But it may affect a newbie QB.
Posted on 9/30/15 at 9:24 pm to bayoujd
I think ND wins before choking against USC
Posted on 9/30/15 at 11:51 pm to FootballNostradamus
quote:
One thing for sure, Death Valley will be fvcking rocking come Saturday night !
Against Eastern Michigan? Nah
Posted on 10/1/15 at 12:16 am to FootballNostradamus
quote:
If we still had Mike Williams I think we could win by double digits, but without him we have struggled to find the vertical passing game.
I am sure Notre Dame would be just happy to have their starting QB this season..
Posted on 10/1/15 at 12:22 am to FootballNostradamus
Clemson is a total unknown after playing nobody.
Vegas having this game as a pick-em is sort of weird considering the ND following. You would think so much money would be on ND and they would have Clemson -7 at least.
Clemson barely beating shitty-arse UL is worrisome.
I would be shocked if ND doesn't win by 2 Tds.
Vegas having this game as a pick-em is sort of weird considering the ND following. You would think so much money would be on ND and they would have Clemson -7 at least.
Clemson barely beating shitty-arse UL is worrisome.
I would be shocked if ND doesn't win by 2 Tds.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 12:33 am to SECfirst
I think you have that backwards. If Clemson was so unknown(not saying they aren't) and tons of people bet ND(it's 51-49), Clemson would probably be a dog.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 12:41 am to ReauxlTide222
YEAH. YOU RIGHT.
CLEMSON WOULD BE +7.
(But I heard from Vegas dudes that ND and USC get the most public money thrown at them - so usually they have to give the other team a lot of points - ergo Stanford getting 41 points years ago...a conference opponent getting 41 points is unheard of - no matter how bad people think they are - Stanford wasn't Appy State.)
So people love ND and USC nationally and usually the opponent gets the points.
CLEMSON WOULD BE +7.
(But I heard from Vegas dudes that ND and USC get the most public money thrown at them - so usually they have to give the other team a lot of points - ergo Stanford getting 41 points years ago...a conference opponent getting 41 points is unheard of - no matter how bad people think they are - Stanford wasn't Appy State.)
So people love ND and USC nationally and usually the opponent gets the points.
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 12:42 am
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