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re: Chris Sale AL MVP chances
Posted on 8/14/17 at 2:25 pm to The Seaward
Posted on 8/14/17 at 2:25 pm to The Seaward
quote:this is true, as long as he holds his current pace he wont qualify until the last week or so. i thought he had more at bats than he actually did
He is barely projected to qualify
i think as long as he qualifies for the leaderboards, he will win. but you never know with the voters
0
Posted on 8/14/17 at 2:41 pm to The Seaward
quote:
A pitcher has way more impact on a game than a position player. Sale has faced 654 hitters this year. Betts has only batted 525 times. Now he impacts the game by playing the field too, but the idea that a pitcher doesn't have the overall impact of a position player and can't win MVP isn't accurate.
Sale only has 1 complete game this year. No CG shut outs. He only impacts the game every 5th day and even then not the entire game. I also dont love Fangraphs pitchers WAR because it is FIP based. Some pitchers have shown to routinely pitch below their FIP and while I love strikeouts, I think FIP overvalues them.
Im not 100% against pitchers winning it and Sale has been phenomenal dont get me wrong but it has to be a truly special season+poor position contenders. Hes been phenomenal but not a once in a decade type season IMO.
The reason people brought up Kluber is because he has had a very similar season. If Sale is MVP then Kluber is right there with him. Kluber has had 4 CG 2 of them being shut outs. You could argue that he has had further impact by that alone in his teams wins.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 2:53 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
The reason people brought up Kluber is because he has had a very similar season. If Sale is MVP then Kluber is right there with him. Kluber has had 4 CG 2 of them being shut outs. You could argue that he has had further impact by that alone in his teams wins.
Sale has 30 more innings than Kluber and only given up 5 more runs. 30 innings with a 1.50 ERA is really valuable. I don't really care about complete games. Sale has had a few opportunities where he could have went complete, but Farrell turned it over to Kimbrel after 8.
Sale has basically been Kluber plus half of Andrew Miller.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 3:36 pm to The Seaward
There is almost no way a pitcher wins the MVP without being truly superlative. And I don't mean really good, I mean channeling Pedro in his prime.
Altuve is getting near run away and hide in his MVP chances right now unless Trout does something amazing in this last month. Which, I wouldn't put past him.
Altuve is getting near run away and hide in his MVP chances right now unless Trout does something amazing in this last month. Which, I wouldn't put past him.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 3:39 pm to The Seaward
quote:
A pitcher has way more impact on a game than a position player.
Ya, in that one game they are pitching.
Betts, for example is getting 4.6 ABs per game. Thats over 112 games.
1,017 IP for Betts on the year. Sale has been active for 165 IP. He doesn't ever come to the plate to hit. His impact in the field in nearly nil.
I think it is a little more complex then batters faced vs plate appearances.
Betts is in the field. Running the bases. Seeing nearly 5 impactful ABs per game at the top of the Red Sox order. Plug in Altuve and we are having the same discussion.
Of course you are prob drawing your conclusions via the WAR metric. Of course position players vs pitchers cannot draw from the same components, thus we must also realize that comparing them is not always equitable.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 3:49 pm to The Seaward
quote:
Sale has basically been Kluber plus half of Andrew Miller.
Kluber has made Miller unnecessary 4 times making him available for more opportunities for the Indians to win games
Listen I think Sale is better than Kluber. Id rather Sale on my team than Kluber. Sale (assuming he doesnt blow up down the stretch) should win the Cy Young. Im just saying he has nothing about his season that isnt just a really good season for a pitcher. His ERA is very good-but not historic. He is striking out a lot of people sure but Klubers K/9 is right there with him. CG yes is an old school thing but hes not getting them. Whats the thing that should be the hook to make me vote him as MVP whenever it is highly irregular to do so? IE why is his season a highly irregular season rather than just being the best pitcher of the 2017 season?
ETA and dont tell me pitchers WAR (particularly Fangraphs) a statistic that can have Jeff Samardjiza more valuable this season than Gio Gonzalez or has enough variability from calculators that can have Gio Gonzalez the 3rd most valuble SP vs 23rd is an unreliable statistic
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 3:55 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
His ERA is very good-but not historic.
He plays in possibly the best division in baseball in a hitters park in a season where the all-time homerun record will be shattered. I wouldn't expect his ERA to match Koufax's from the mid 60s.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:02 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
ETA and dont tell me pitchers WAR (particularly Fangraphs) a statistic that can have Jeff Samardjiza more valuable this season than Gio Gonzalez or has enough variability from calculators that can have Gio Gonzalez the 3rd most valuble SP vs 23rd is an unreliable statistic
Even if you use runs allowed instead of FIP, Sale is leading the majors in fWAR comfortably. That said, I don’t think WAR is perfect to the decimal, especially comparing position players to pitchers. Altuve is a perfectly reasonable choice. But so is Chris Sale.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:04 pm to The Seaward
quote:
He plays in possibly the best division in baseball in a hitters park in a season where the all-time homerun record will be shattered. I wouldn't expect his ERA to match Koufax's from the mid 60s.
Pedro only had 1 season in boston with a higher ERA in the steroid era. Rocket had a 1.93 ERA and didnt win the MVP.
Theres several good contenders for position players this year for MVP. Sale has been incredible but he needs something to truly set him apart to win the MVP. JMO.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:08 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
Pedro only had 1 season in boston with a higher ERA in the steroid era. Rocket had a 1.93 ERA and didnt win the MVP.
Peak Pedro is the greatest pitcher of all-time. I don't think a pitcher should have to match his prime to win the MVP. Just like a hitter doesn't have to match 2001 Barry Bonds to win the MVP.
The fact that Pedro never won an MVP is a nuts. And it's due to this pitchers can't be the most valuable player narrative. Which if that was true, wouldn't these extremely smart, sophisticated front offices not spend as much on front line starters as they do position players? But they do spend as much on front line starters.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:21 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
Pedro only had 1 season in boston with a higher ERA in the steroid era. Rocket had a 1.93 ERA and didnt win the MVP.
Comparing Sale to Pedro and using that as an argument is pretty bananas. Pedro is arguably the greatest pitcher to ever exist.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:47 pm to Jcorye1
quote:
Comparing Sale to Pedro and using that as an argument is pretty bananas. Pedro is arguably the greatest pitcher to ever exist.
So if the greatest pitcher to ever exist never won the MVP that should illustrate how special of a season it takes to win MVP as a pitcher (assuming there are legitimate contenders for position players)
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 4:48 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:51 pm to The Seaward
quote:
Even if you use runs allowed instead of FIP, Sale is leading the majors in fWAR comfortably.
Using Runs allowed Scherzer's WAR is higher. In fact Scherzer's WAR is higher by a wider margin than Sale's is to Kluber's.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:53 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
So if the greatest pitcher to ever exist never won the MVP that should illustrate how special of a season it takes to win MVP as a pitcher
All I take from that is that voting in the past was terrible. No point in continuing to using flawed standards just because that's always the way it has been.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:54 pm to The Seaward
quote:
No point in continuing to using flawed standards just because that's always the way it has been.
But you are willing to take a flawed statistic and say hes the most valuable player in the AL
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:57 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
Using Runs allowed Scherzer's WAR is higher. In fact Scherzer's WAR is higher by a wider margin than Sale's is to Kluber's.
Not on Fangraphs. Link
I think Scherzer has a great argument for NL MVP.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:02 pm to The Seaward
Baseball reference's
They also have a great example of why FIP is flawed.
FIP overvalues strike outs particularly when you base it on value added to a team.
Which is more valuable-a 3 pitch inning with 3 ground outs? Or 3 Ks after going full count?
One situation is going to lead to a better FIP however the other allows the pitcher to make it further in the game.
They also have a great example of why FIP is flawed.
quote:
I've crafted some admittedly extreme cases below to illustrate situations where the approaches differ. For most situations, FIP and Runs Allowed Average (RA, essentially what we use) will be very close and are strongly correlated, but there are a number of cases each year where there are large disparities between the two metrics.
Situation #1, Pitcher A throws a perfect game with 20 strikeouts, Pitcher B throws a perfect game with no strikeouts.
FIP: Pitcher A -1.40 FIP, Pitcher B, 3.20 FIP, RA: Pitcher A 0.00 RA, Pitcher B 0.00 RA.
FIP overvalues strike outs particularly when you base it on value added to a team.
Which is more valuable-a 3 pitch inning with 3 ground outs? Or 3 Ks after going full count?
One situation is going to lead to a better FIP however the other allows the pitcher to make it further in the game.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:08 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
But you are willing to take a flawed statistic and say hes the most valuable player in the AL
WAR isn’t perfect, but no stat is. And it is much more robust and scientific than “a pitcher can’t be MVP”. And I’m fine if someone chooses Altuve. I don’t really think there is a wrong answer between Altuve and Sale-- other than Altuve should get it because a pitcher can’t win it unless he wins 30 games and has a sub 1 ERA.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:11 pm to Adam Banks
FIP based WAR isn't perfect. Nor is RA-WAR. FIP gives pitchers no control for balls in play. That obviously isn't correct. RA gives pitchers all credit for balls in play. That obviously isn't correct. No one knows the exact amount that is the pitcher and the defense for balls in play. I typically like to average them.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:42 pm to The Seaward
quote:
WAR isn’t perfect, but no stat is. And it is much more robust and scientific than “a pitcher can’t be MVP”. And I’m fine if someone chooses Altuve. I don’t really think there is a wrong answer between Altuve and Sale-- other than Altuve should get it because a pitcher can’t win it unless he wins 30 games and has a sub 1 ERA.
The reason why the tradition exists is because its intuitive.
I will take Altuve out of the argument.
In the ALDS who would you rather have in isolation-Trout or Sale?
Sale might, stress might pitch 2 games in a 5 game series. Randy Johnson in 2001 NLDS threw 1 game. The guy who threw a CG SO a 7 inning game and then came back and threw 1.1 innings in the WS only threw in 1 game in the ALDS-why because hes a starting pitcher and thats how it works. The likelihood of Sale throwing 2 complete games is next to nil.
So sale for a max of 14 innings or Trout for a guaranteed 45. Its not a hard answer. Thats why there is MVP and the Cy Young.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 5:43 pm
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