- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Call Wasn't Dumb. Y'all Just Don't Understand Statistics.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:06 am to lsuoldschool
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:06 am to lsuoldschool
quote:
Dude I don't mean to insult you but the only thing dumber than that call was your post
No problem. I don't respect your intelligence at all so I'm not insulted.
0
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:07 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:Even if small, there is a risk. It should be risk of sack, turnover OR penalty outweighs risk of not having time for 4th down.
Irrelevent. Their play included no risk of a sack.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:08 am to cornhat
quote:
Even if small, there is a risk. It should be risk of sack, turnover OR penalty outweighs risk of not having time for 4th down.
HOLY shite. Obviously there is a minuscule one. But that model is clearly just run or pass and applying the risk of a sack of an average pass play. It wouldnt apply to a slant.
This post was edited on 2/2/15 at 12:09 am
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:11 am to League Champs
Did you read what I posted? The slant was a terrible call. If you wanted to throw, show Lynch, don't go quick slant for the very reason you said.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:16 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:We are saying that you are over-simplifying the outcome as if it is some marginal difference without any logic (or statistical evidence) to support your claim. We know that Marshawn average 2.6 yards on situations where there is 1-3 yards to gain (and 1.6 yards when in a goal to goal situation), so scoring is a fairly probable option. If you can find support on Wilson's slant percentage in the same situation, then I am open to that. Until then, with a 68% completion rate, that will drop closer to the goal line, and the risk of throwing in interception into the middle of the defense, I will argue that the difference is more than marginal.
They also had a ridiculously high percent chance of winning if they ran the ball. Its BINARY..... All that stuff is included. People like you trying to apply ridiculous concave utility curves to risk on a BINARY outcome is part of the problem.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:20 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:1.6 yards on goal to goal situations. Besides when I provide, admittedly imperfect, statistics, you call it irrelevant; however, it does provide information about his short yardage capabilities Yet you are yet to provide any statistics to support your claim. You've said that we don't understand statistics (even though most of us do) yet you haven't provided any tangible evidence.
Irrelevant. Is almost certainly heavily skewed by long runs. What would be relevant is the percentage of times he gains at least 1 yard. Even that number would be misleadingly high because the lack of the need for a safety in a goal line D.
This post was edited on 2/2/15 at 12:23 am
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:23 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
We are saying that you are over-simplifying the outcome as if it is some marginal difference without any logic (or statistical evidence) to support your claim. We know that Marshawn average 2.6 yards on situations where there is 1-3 yards to gain (and 1.6 yards when in a goal to goal situation), so scoring is a fairly probable option. If you can find support on Wilson's slant percentage in the same situation, then I am open to that. Until then, with a 68% completion rate, that will drop closer to the goal line, and the risk of throwing in interception into the middle of the defense, I will argue that the difference is more than marginal.
Argue what you want. You are a clown. You can't even see why Marshawn's average that is skewed by 5+ yard runs is irrelevant, so I don't really care what you think.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:24 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
1.6 yards on goal to goal situations. Besides when I provide, admittedly imperfect, statistics, you call it irrelevant; however, it does provide information about his short yardage capabilities Yet you are yet to provide any statistics to support your claim.
No, it provides no such thing. That includes 1st and goal from the 10. Thats not a short yardage situation.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:24 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:I admit that it is imperfect. He averages 1.6 yards inside the 10. I am at least trying to provide "statistics" to support my argument. You've yet to provide any.
Argue what you want. You are a clown. You can't even see why Marshawn's average that is skewed by 5+ yard runs is irrelevant, so I don't really care what you think
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:25 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
You've yet to provide any.
I'm beginning to feel lied to by the OP.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:25 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
don't understand statistics (even though most of us do)
lol no. Burden of proof isn't on me. I didn't claim to know the perfect call or that one or the other is better. The fact that so many people are so positive it was one of the worst calls ever without doing any kind of analysis is my problem.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:27 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Burden of proof isn't on me
Yes, it is. You claimed to have some sort of statistical evidence that the call "wasn't dumb".
Are you revolutionizing the Scientific Method, in addition to your groundbreaking work in statistics?
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:27 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:Sure. Those situations would skew the data. It's not irrelevant though. It provides some information about the expected yardage of a run. If I had deviation statistics, I would provide. My guess is that the .6 yard difference is greater than the standard deviation in this case.
No, it provides no such thing. That includes 1st and goal from the 10. Thats not a short yardage situation.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:27 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:
OK, I have. Do you think there's something inherently illogical to that? The same thing would have happened if they lost a fumble after making the "correct" call, no?
you really wanna claim the odds fumbling on the 1 are greater than or equal to throwing an INT over the middle?
This post was edited on 2/2/15 at 12:31 am
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:28 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:You want us to prove that your assertion is wrong? Why don't you prove it is right?
lol no. Burden of proof isn't on me. I didn't claim to know the perfect call or that one or the other is better. The fact that so many people are so positive it was one of the worst calls ever without doing any kind of analysis is my problem
This post was edited on 2/2/15 at 12:29 am
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:28 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
I admit that it is imperfect. He averages 1.6 yards inside the 10. I am at least trying to provide "statistics" to support my argument. You've yet to provide any.
Admit what you want. I'm not arguing with you. You've done a good job proving my point. Posting irrelevant statistics like a fool.
In absence of telling statistics, I usually resort to not claiming a call is absolutely horrible just because the play didn't work. You seem to be dong all right side-stepping that problem by posting irrelevant statistics, so by all means, continue.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:28 am to Dr RC
quote:
you really wanna claim the odds fumbling on the 1 are greater than throwing an INT over the middle?
No. I would be alright arguing that your reading comprehension is below average, even for this board.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:29 am to TheSexecutioner
Simple by throwing a timing route on second down to your WR you put your weakness against their strength and eliminate your strength against their weakness
At the very least run play action and try to get Matthews or Wilson in the back of the end zone so you can throw it away and stop the clock if it isn't there.
At the very least run play action and try to get Matthews or Wilson in the back of the end zone so you can throw it away and stop the clock if it isn't there.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:29 am to TheSexecutioner
Our little stats whiz sounds like he needs a nap.
Posted on 2/2/15 at 12:29 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Unlikely interception happened.
Yes, it was unlikely.
The call was still egregiously dumb.
Therefore, you get a downvote
Page 4 of 11
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News