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Message
re: Buddy's Week 7 NFL Rankings
Posted on 10/27/09 at 4:06 pm to supatigah
Posted on 10/27/09 at 4:06 pm to supatigah
quote:
I have to admit what cracks me up about this every week is how SUPER SERIOUS everyone seems to take this ranking
You're the one giving it legitimacy by making it an official blog post. If this was just a thread started by any other poster he'd probably end up being ignored after he'd taken his lumps. And my comments weren't meant to be taken as SUPER SERIOUS, I just don't see why you liked it enough to bring it here in the first place. I don't think Buddy did a very good job of defending his system, in fact he pretty much admitted to all the flaws, pointed out a few more and said, "just wait til near the end of the season". What moron can't tell who the good and bad teams are by the end of the season?
Posted on 10/27/09 at 4:12 pm to supatigah
quote:
1. pats........45
2. broncos.....48
3. saints......50
4. packers.....52
5. giants......55
6. colts.......57
7. steelers....62
Colts behind the Giants Pats and PACK?????
Posted on 10/27/09 at 4:13 pm to supatigah
quote:
what is really funny is I quit posting the rankings because of people whining about them and rondo asked for them to come back on the help board
I use this ranking to help me with my survivior pic'em. I narrow it down to three and use this to determine my best choice. It's worked so far.
I also like to read these threads and how much you (Supa) get your panties in a wad over other posters getting their panties in wad. It makes decent comedy.
Posted on 10/27/09 at 4:15 pm to supatigah
Supa, if you want to just post the blog and not make a thread about it that would probably reduce the backlash.
Posted on 10/27/09 at 4:33 pm to supatigah
quote:
out week after week that it is just a stats ranking compilation, there is no human element to it whatsoever, the scores are not a factor because it is NOT A POLL
Except that a very dumb human picked which stats to look at and how to haphazardly assign a point value from 1 to 32 marginalizing how much better some teams are than others and over separating teams in the middle with similar numbers, then using that crappy evaluation system as a judgement to rank the teams from 1 to 32.
It's a poll, and it's not a good one.
Posted on 10/27/09 at 4:36 pm to LSUgrasshopper
Another thing I don't like about this blog is that he only picks the obvious games that anyone with a right mind would be able to pick but the games that could go either way, he stays away from.
Which in return is the main way his record of predicting games is so good.
Which in return is the main way his record of predicting games is so good.
Posted on 10/27/09 at 4:47 pm to supatigah
quote:
1. pats........45
2. broncos.....48
3. saints......50
4. packers.....52
I get the feeling that his Pats number is really skewed by two straight blowouts of bad teams
Posted on 10/27/09 at 6:07 pm to supatigah
atlanta at #22 ? the 49ers are ahead of the falcons? 45-10 was the score.
This post was edited on 10/27/09 at 6:09 pm
Posted on 10/27/09 at 6:59 pm to supatigah
quote:
No one seems to be able to figure out week after week that it is just a stats ranking compilation, there is no human element to it whatsoever, the scores are not a factor because it is NOT A POLL. It is simply a compilation of how well you play in 6 categories and how that play ranks versus the rest of the league
I think this is a good basis, but he should take it one step further and take into account the teams your played.
Look at how many yards Team B usually give up passing and compare that to how many yards Team A got against them. Then do this for the other 5 stats. That way if you blow out the Titans or Raiders or some other dogshit team it isn't as impressive as blowing out the Giants
Posted on 10/28/09 at 8:37 am to TigerinATL
quote:
You're the one giving it legitimacy by making it an official blog post.
dude it is a blog post so that I can keep track of it through the season and keep all of them in one place. Apparently you think a td.com blog is some sort of officially sanctioned entry to which all I have to say about that is this, and this, and and this pretty much blow that theory out of the water.
Look at all of the bitching about the Broncos high ranking earlier in the year, now they are still undefeated and playing better teams and everyone is going "oh, looks like the Broncos are better than I thought they were going to be." Well no shite
and the Pats high ranking this week has to do with their defense and their offense destroying two bad teams in a row and creating a "false positive" if you will.
Posted on 10/28/09 at 8:48 am to supatigah
quote:
I can keep track of it through the season and keep all of them in one place. Apparently you think a td.com blog is some sort of officially sanctioned entry
So if it's not some sort of officially sanctioned entry by the site, why have it on the site? If it's you're own personal thing just for you leave it on your own computer.
Otherwise take some constructive criticism and try to make it better. Figure out why your rankings seem flawed and improve your crappy rankings and people may not bitch so much.
Posted on 10/28/09 at 9:20 am to LSUgrasshopper
quote:
Except that a very dumb human picked which stats to look at and how to haphazardly assign a point value from 1 to 32 marginalizing how much better some teams are than others and over separating teams in the middle with similar numbers, then using that crappy evaluation system as a judgement to rank the teams from 1 to 32.
not quite
what he did was pick his six stats to try to gain an aggregate snapshot each week of how each team is playing on offense and defense relative to the other teams in the league without regard for wins and losses. In other words a quality control program of the effectiveness of the team that doesn't factor in a tipped ball going for 87yds on the last play of the game for a winning TD. Or two defensive TDs in the 4th quarter flipping a close football game between two highly ranked teams and allowing the home team to easily cover a spread they should not have come close to covering (pitt vs minny).
St Louis is 0-7 but they have moved the ball on offense and played some tough teams closer than they should have (on paper). So because Cleveland has a win and St Louis doesn't does that mean Cleveland is a better team than the Rams? Not if you take the win total out and just look at output. Not to mention Cleveland has already quit this season and the Rams are still playing hard.
Look at the results of Sunday:
Cleveland ToP vs GB 24:06
GB ToP vs Cleve 35:54
Score GB 31-3
St Louis ToP vs Indy 29:21
Indy ToP vs St Louis 30:39
Score Indy 42-6
if you just looked at the scores they don't tell you much about either game but look at the rankings and you get a little bit clearer gauge of each team.
I don't know if his system is worthwhile or not, that is why we are posting it here and reviewing it every week to watch it and see how it all shakes out. I am interested to see at what point in the season where the system "evens" out, what the effects of taking out some of the "human element" are and how we can mold this simple system into a better one with the addition of some elements so that we can track v2.0 against the spread next season.
Posted on 10/28/09 at 9:21 am to The Easter Bunny
quote:
I think this is a good basis, but he should take it one step further and take into account the teams your played.
Look at how many yards Team B usually give up passing and compare that to how many yards Team A got against them. Then do this for the other 5 stats. That way if you blow out the Titans or Raiders or some other dogshit team it isn't as impressive as blowing out the Giants
I suggest you do this and we can track your system versus his and see how they correlate.
Posted on 10/28/09 at 9:32 am to LSUgrasshopper
quote:
So if it's not some sort of officially sanctioned entry by the site, why have it on the site?
are you new to td.com? seriously this is like tulanetigerfan's alter (night man) saying that posting this is making the site look cheap. Cheaper than the OT? seriously?
quote:
Otherwise take some constructive criticism and try to make it better
no, I don't want to change anything, I want to watch it all season and then evaluate it at the end.
quote:
Figure out why your rankings seem flawed and improve your crappy rankings and people may not bitch so much.
these are not my rankings
this site is built on people bitching, why would adjusting the system change that?
Posted on 10/28/09 at 9:52 am to supatigah
quote:
Look at the results of Sunday:
Cleveland ToP vs GB 24:06
GB ToP vs Cleve 35:54
Score GB 31-3
St Louis ToP vs Indy 29:21
Indy ToP vs St Louis 30:39
Score Indy 42-6
So they both get blown out, but because indy only had a slight lead in TOP Cleveland is somehow worse?
quote:
what he did was pick his six stats to try to gain an aggregate snapshot each week of how each team
And again, giving them a score of 1 to 32 is a terrible way to rank teams. It won't reward dominance, and will over separate teams in the middle.
Back to the Cleveland vs St Louis argument.
St louis lost to 2-5 washington, were shut out by 2-4 Seattle, were shut out by 3-3 San Fran,
Cleveland has played one team with a losing record... they beat them.
6-1 minn
6-0 den
3-3 bal
5-2 cincy
3-4 buffalo...win
5-2 pitt
4-2 green bay
Posted on 10/28/09 at 9:55 am to supatigah
Supa, after seeing all these peoples responses, I apologize for ever being on their side of the fence.
Posted on 10/28/09 at 10:04 am to supatigah
quote:
these are not my rankings
from post 1
quote:
I measure 6 things to develop my rankings. A perfect team
would have 6 power points. The worst team would have
192.
from the blog post
quote:
Buddy's Week 7 NFL Rankings
by supatigah
Can't imagine where the confusion came in
Posted on 10/28/09 at 10:07 am to LSUgrasshopper
He posted them for some dude name Getting Old...because asshats (myself included) ran him off with these same arguments you are posting.
Posted on 10/28/09 at 10:07 am to rondo
quote:
I apologize for ever being on their side of the fence
quote:
Apparently you think a td.com blog is some sort of officially sanctioned entry to which all I have to say about that is this, and this, and and this pretty much blow that theory out of the water.
Now who's taking things SUPER SERIOUS? I just jumped on the bitching bandwagon because dude did a poor job of defending an obviously flawed systems. You'd think if he gave up 4 marriages for football he'd have come up with something better.
And you do realize that with your defense you are giving the bitching bandwagon exactly what it wants don't you?
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