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re: Bill Barnwell roasts Mike McCarthy on Grantland today
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:43 pm to H-Town Tiger
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:43 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
or you could try a different play
Agreed. As I mentioned earlier, if anything, it was a problem of playcalling, not game theory. I think the macro decision was correct, now the micro tactical call was probably erroneous.
I do think McCarthy messed up the game ten ways to Sunday, I'm just saying, I think he was perfectly justified in kicking the first FG. His failures came later, or maybe the issue was the play call itself, not the decision to not got for it. I'll defend the first FG because it was an interesting dynamic where Expected Points crosses over to Win Expectancy, but don't confuse that for thinking McCarthy coached a good game. He didn't.
0
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:44 pm to SirWinston
quote:
No - Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and is mobile (he was moving very well at that stage of the game) and Lacy is a top 10 RB and Kuhn is a top 20 "nose for the goal line" guy. Plus you can literally run your best play there, it's not like anybody is forcing you to run a FB quick dive.
On the flip side, Seattle has an elite defense and one of the loudest stadiums in the world. I disagree about Rodgers though because even if he was more mobile at the beginning of the game, his injury still hampered him enough where bootleg type play would not be near as successful as usual.
Overall though, my argument is that given the circumstances neither decision was wrong. In other words, they lost the game in the fourth quarter with some poor play calling and boneheaded plays, plus Seattle playing great.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:47 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
He's not "right" but he is suggesting that it is not so cut and dry. 4th and 1 from the one is basically the line or maybe barely in the go for it range. Either way, that particular graph suggests it's not a clear decision and either option can be supported.
Exactly. See how the line drops close to 1 to go on the 1 yard line. But's not a definitive call either way, and I think the score situation (as well as playing on the road) easily justifies a field goal. It's not the horrible call Barnwell pretends it is. It's not a rote call, it's within a coaches judgment.
The 2nd one, I have a problem with because an extra FG isn't worth much to GB. Go for 7.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:55 pm to Baloo
How about the third one? 13-0 and it's 4th and 1 at the 23. They kicked again to go up 16-0.
3 big 4th down decisions and they got 9 points out if it. That is not good. Left a ton of points on the board, points that would have put the game out of reach. That is hindsight and not fair to say except that I spent the entirety of the game posting that I hope they lose because of it. Again, that doesn't actually support either decision, just pointing out that I am not looking at it with hindsight goggles.
As far as actual football tactics, my stance is that calling the entire game like a giant pussy is generally a bad idea. MAYBE it rubs off on your team and MAYBE your players do stupid shite like fall after an interception with 5 minutes left because they know you aren't trying to score.
3 big 4th down decisions and they got 9 points out if it. That is not good. Left a ton of points on the board, points that would have put the game out of reach. That is hindsight and not fair to say except that I spent the entirety of the game posting that I hope they lose because of it. Again, that doesn't actually support either decision, just pointing out that I am not looking at it with hindsight goggles.
As far as actual football tactics, my stance is that calling the entire game like a giant pussy is generally a bad idea. MAYBE it rubs off on your team and MAYBE your players do stupid shite like fall after an interception with 5 minutes left because they know you aren't trying to score.
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:58 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
How about the third one? 13-0 and it's 4th and 1 at the 23. They kicked again to go up 16-0.
I f'n despise that one. I do think the Expected Points analysis is slightly off because Crosby is virtually a 100% lock to get 3 points right now, instead of the 80% average or whatever, but still... guh. What a gutless call. Hell, at 16-0 it's still technically a two-score game.
That call is virtually indefensible.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 1:02 pm to Baloo
quote:
I f'n despise that one. I do think the Expected Points analysis is slightly off because Crosby is virtually a 100% lock to get 3 points right now, instead of the 80% average or whatever, but still... guh. What a gutless call. Hell, at 16-0 it's still technically a two-score game.
That call is virtually indefensible.
I agree and that is a position where Sean Payton fails too.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 1:34 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
I agree and that is a position where Sean Payton fails too.
Sean Payton is a bottom 10 NFL decision maker and playcaller. He's been below average these past two years, parlaying sure-fire NFC South Championship talent into a mere wild card berth and the most disappointing season of his tenure.
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 1:38 pm
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