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Message
re: Bill Barnwell roasts Mike McCarthy on Grantland today
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:14 pm to Baloo
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:14 pm to Baloo
quote:
I'll forgive him for the first one. He had 1st and goal from the 2 and failed three times to get it in. If you fail on so many close in plays in a row, there's no reason to think the 4th down play will suddenly work.
or you could try a different play
If you kick a FG that is shorter than an xtra point, its a failure. If you miss they get the ball at the 1. If you go for it the first time and miss, i can maybe see doing it the 2nd time but he should have gone for it both times.
2
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:16 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
The way their offense was playing the 1st qtr?
True, but we have the benefit of hindsight in that situation; McCarthy didn't know how bad their offensive would for the first half.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:17 pm to H-Town Tiger
The great Bill Simmons has a pretty sound theory:
Any time you're in a situation like this, if you do something that makes the other team's fans happy, you're making a mistake.
You don't think Seahawks fans were over the moon to see GB settle for 6 measly points from the 1 yard line? It was clearly the wrong decision.
Any time you're in a situation like this, if you do something that makes the other team's fans happy, you're making a mistake.
You don't think Seahawks fans were over the moon to see GB settle for 6 measly points from the 1 yard line? It was clearly the wrong decision.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:18 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
McCarthy didn't know how bad their offensive would for the first half.
That's a self-fulfilling prophesy, though. If they score 21 points instead of 13 (or even 14 points plus setting up great field position on an extra drive after getting stuffed from the 1) their offense wouldn't have had a "bad first half".
McCarthy's vagina is what CAUSED Green Bay to have a "bad offensive first half".
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:21 pm to SirWinston
quote:
That's a self-fulfilling prophesy, though. If they score 21 points instead of 13 (or even 14 points plus setting up great field position on an extra drive after getting stuffed from the 1) their offense wouldn't have had a "bad first half"
I meant he didn't know how bad Seattle's offense would be.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:23 pm to Baloo
quote:Serious question, I'm misreading this graph I think? Isn't 4th and 1 from the 1 about as definitive a go for it as there is on the graph?
If you'll note, 4th and 1 from the 1, regardless of score, is right on the line of Go For It and Kick the FG. I think it's close enough that it is within a coaches' judgment, and either decision could be statistically sound
It looks like 4th and goal from the 6 yardline is kind of in the middle, but anything 4th and goal from the 4 or less and obviously the 1 is clearly in the go for it camp, based on the graph you presented?
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:23 pm to buckeye_vol
Ahh.. gotcha. But Seattle has been fairly mediocre on offense for 2 months. They clearly have no big play guy - they are very similar to the Dome Patrol Saints. They've secured some "blowout wins" through the snowball effect - beating a team 10-3 for 3 quarters and then pouncing on mistakes when their opponent has to start getting more aggressive. But they are in no way offensively dynamic like a GB or NE or Denver (when clicking).
Plus I don't think you can let your opponent dictate your style when you have the best QB in the NFL and a top 10 RB to boot. If GB would have done GB they'd be in the Super Bowl now.
Plus I don't think you can let your opponent dictate your style when you have the best QB in the NFL and a top 10 RB to boot. If GB would have done GB they'd be in the Super Bowl now.
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:24 pm to shel311
Yes - football coaches are so notoriously stupid and conservative though that you have to grade them on a curve.
If you played football by the numbers akin to sitting at a blackjack table you'd have less than half the number of punts that we currently have, for example.
I'd freaking love to own an NFL team or be a college AD so that I could hire a coach who was intelligent enough and empowered enough (through my blessing and mandate) to run a team through "football by the numbers".
If you played football by the numbers akin to sitting at a blackjack table you'd have less than half the number of punts that we currently have, for example.
I'd freaking love to own an NFL team or be a college AD so that I could hire a coach who was intelligent enough and empowered enough (through my blessing and mandate) to run a team through "football by the numbers".
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:25 pm to SirWinston
quote:I'm just trying to figure out if Baloo is reading the graph wrong and whether that would change his opinion, or if I'm reading it wrong and if so, how the heck am I supposed to read that thing.
Yes
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:28 pm to roguetiger15
quote:
what an idiot, 99% of coaches take the points, on the road and in the NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME.
BB wouldn't and Sean Payton wouldn't
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:30 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
Sean Payton wouldn't
Sean Payton coached team would false start on 2nd and goal from the 1 and wind up kicking a 23 yard FG. Dude needs to tighten shite up for real next year.
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:32 pm to shel311
quote:
I'm just trying to figure out if Baloo is reading the graph wrong and whether that would change his opinion, or if I'm reading it wrong and if so, how the heck am I supposed to read that thing
I wasn't sure if I was interpreting correctly or not.
Here is the link from Baloo's graph
This graph may be a bit easier to understand.
So again the expected value of going for it is 4.3 (what Barnwell stated); however, that is the average. It is probably much lower against Seattle. I still don't think either decision would have been wrong yesterday.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:33 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
It is probably much lower against Seattle.
No - Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and is mobile (he was moving very well at that stage of the game) and Lacy is a top 10 RB and Kuhn is a top 20 "nose for the goal line" guy. Plus you can literally run your best play there, it's not like anybody is forcing you to run a FB quick dive.
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:35 pm to shel311
The white sections of the graph represent what to do. The line separates them. So 4th and 4 from the 15 is literally on the line between field goal and go for it. 4th and 4 from the 40 is a definitive go for it
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:36 pm
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:36 pm to buckeye_vol
Thanks for the extra breakdown.
Not to call him out or anything, but I'm thinking Baloo interpeted the graph incorrectly, and in both graphs you presented, 4th and goal at the 1, based solely on numbers, is a no brainer go for it, and not the either/or scenario he thought it was?
Not to call him out or anything, but I'm thinking Baloo interpeted the graph incorrectly, and in both graphs you presented, 4th and goal at the 1, based solely on numbers, is a no brainer go for it, and not the either/or scenario he thought it was?
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:37 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:Ahhhhh, never thought of it that way, so then Baloo was right based on that graph? But not the 2nd graph? I can't do this any more!!!
The white sections of the graph represent what to do. The line separates them. So 4th and 4 from the 15 is literally on the line between field goal and go for it. 4th and 4 from the 40 is a definitive go for it
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:38 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:Ahhhhh, makes sense now. I had no clue how to interpret that graph.
The white sections of the graph represent what to do. The line separates them. So 4th and 4 from the 15 is literally on the line between field goal and go for it. 4th and 4 from the 40 is a definitive go for it
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:38 pm to Augustus
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:39 pm to Augustus
I had no problem with him kicking the second field goal.
Posted on 1/19/15 at 12:40 pm to shel311
He's not "right" but he is suggesting that it is not so cut and dry. 4th and 1 from the one is basically the line or maybe barely in the go for it range. Either way, that particular graph suggests it's not a clear decision and either option can be supported.
I will add that I also thought the 3rd 4th down decision was wrong as well. I don't remember exactly where the ball was but i think it was 4th and 1 around the 20. They kicked it again.
I will add that I also thought the 3rd 4th down decision was wrong as well. I don't remember exactly where the ball was but i think it was 4th and 1 around the 20. They kicked it again.
This post was edited on 1/19/15 at 12:42 pm
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