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1
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:23 pm to maclauer
When am I going to learn to avoid taking shitty teams on the road? 
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:24 pm to maclauer
At least UT won and this prediction looks good so far:
quote:
BTB can watch Melo put up 45 in a Knicks route
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:26 pm to bamafan425
quote:
Knicks cannot miss.
Hawks shooting 61% as well
Avoid shitty teams on the road
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:29 pm to maclauer
I didn't feel so good about my Lakers bet anymore when Vegas Runner tweeted that public money was pouring in on the Lakers, I though for sure the Knicks would draw the public bets, I'm honestly baffled. Usually a team that looks as good as the Knicks have looked, favored at home against a team as bad as the Lakers look would be taking most of the bets. I guess people just blindly bet the Lakers and Vegas knew it. I thought the line looked fishy because it was so low, and I was always under the assumption there was no such thing as a soft line. 
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:33 pm to dgtiger3
It's rare you see a name like the Lakers getting that many and the public bit.
It's not over yet, though. I've been moosed too many times to be counting my winnings already
It's not over yet, though. I've been moosed too many times to be counting my winnings already
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:34 pm to maclauer
Anyone else besides you playing Washington?
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:38 pm to Bryant91092
quote:
Anyone else besides you playing Washington?
Don't think so. You thinking about fading me?
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:39 pm to maclauer
Nope. I just took them at -6.5 I'm 1-1 on the night taking UT and MTSU MLs
I'm 1-1 on the night taking UT and MTSU MLsPosted on 12/13/12 at 8:41 pm to Bryant91092
Wow. I got another shitty number. I'm not locking anything until day of from now on.
Go Huskies
Go Huskies
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:41 pm to maclauer
Maclauer, I know you posted your picks before me this morning, but did you see my stat about Atlanta on zero days rest since the beginning of last season? 18-4-1 ATS , that's mind blowing. Their margin of victory is actually 3.7 PPG better on no days rest than their MOV in all games over that span. Only other team like that in the league is the Warriors, fwiw.
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:46 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
Maclauer, I know you posted your picks before me this morning, but did you see my stat about Atlanta on zero days rest since the beginning of last season? 18-4-1 ATS , that's mind blowing. Their margin of victory is actually 3.7 PPG better on no days rest than their MOV in all games over that span. Only other team like that in the league is the Warriors, fwiw.
I locked last night. Did not know that. Another reason I should wait until day of to lock
I know the Hawks were 2-7-1 at home ATS and 0-2-1 covering 9+ points this season.
Posted on 12/13/12 at 8:59 pm to maclauer
Yeah I saw those stats earlier as well.
I actually stumbled on the stat by accident, someone in the thread yesterday, possibly you, said they didn't like my Bulls pick because they played the night before. So I wanted to find out what the average difference was MOV wise for teams on zero days rest. The NBA Average was about -1.25 MOV difference,, with mostly younger more athletic teams like the Warriors, Hawks, Hornets, and Thunder not showing any difference.
When I looked further and saw the Hawks were 18-4-1 over a two season span, I felt that was a significant advantage to betting them in those situations, knowing that a team coming off a back to back is going to get a favorable number. Bobcats were also one of the worst MOV coming off back to backs, which isn't surprising considering how mentally weak that entire franchise seems to be.
Charlotte is not the pushover they were last year, that's why I bet the first half line, I felt like if the Hawks didn't dominate them out of the gate they would dominate the second half.
I actually stumbled on the stat by accident, someone in the thread yesterday, possibly you, said they didn't like my Bulls pick because they played the night before. So I wanted to find out what the average difference was MOV wise for teams on zero days rest. The NBA Average was about -1.25 MOV difference,, with mostly younger more athletic teams like the Warriors, Hawks, Hornets, and Thunder not showing any difference.
When I looked further and saw the Hawks were 18-4-1 over a two season span, I felt that was a significant advantage to betting them in those situations, knowing that a team coming off a back to back is going to get a favorable number. Bobcats were also one of the worst MOV coming off back to backs, which isn't surprising considering how mentally weak that entire franchise seems to be.
Charlotte is not the pushover they were last year, that's why I bet the first half line, I felt like if the Hawks didn't dominate them out of the gate they would dominate the second half.
Posted on 12/13/12 at 9:14 pm to maclauer
Any chance SA loses again tonight? Thinking about playing them ML for the amount I'm going to most likely lose on the Lakeshow tonight. ML is -300, Alternate Line of SA -2.5 is also available for -220.
Portland is pretty beat up, and just isn't a very good team right now.
Portland is pretty beat up, and just isn't a very good team right now.
Posted on 12/13/12 at 9:22 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
Any chance SA loses again tonight? Thinking about playing them ML for the amount I'm going to most likely lose on the Lakeshow tonight. ML is -300, Alternate Line of SA -2.5 is also available for -220.
Portland is pretty beat up, and just isn't a very good team right now.
I'm sure you have all the same trend statistics I do that point to a Spurs cover. But the same numbers indicated a Grizzlies route last night and we know how that turned out.
The Spurs are so consistent though that I would call the ML very safe.
Spurs after losses, on the road, and on back-to-backs are all strong trends on the stats I have. (I threw out the Heat loss where they rested their whole team.)
Posted on 12/13/12 at 9:30 pm to maclauer
Threw a half unit on Spurs -2 1Q, Spurs -1.5 4Q (Best 4th Q team in the game), and Spurs -2.5 Alternate Line for the game.
Posted on 12/13/12 at 9:30 pm to maclauer
I am going to continue fading the Spurs on this road trip. Pushed when they played the Rockets, won last night in Utah, and taking Portland +7 tonight. If they can come off an emotional loss, b2b, and win by more than 7 in a tough arena in the middle of a long road trip then so be it.
Posted on 12/13/12 at 9:39 pm to Zipfer2022
Am I being delusional or for a second there were the Lakers within 6?
Just let me cover my teaser Lakers +13.5 and we can all be happy.
Just let me cover my teaser Lakers +13.5 and we can all be happy.
Posted on 12/13/12 at 9:41 pm to Zipfer2022
Spurs have the best record ATS this year and the last 3 years fwiw
Not saying they will definitely cover tonight, just saying fading them regularly probably isn't the best idea in the long-run
Not saying they will definitely cover tonight, just saying fading them regularly probably isn't the best idea in the long-run
Posted on 12/13/12 at 9:42 pm to dgtiger3
NBA.
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