Alabama vs Clemson National Championship Rematch- In Depth

Alabama Pass Offense vs Clemson Pass Defense
This is a very scary match-up for Alabama. Alabama has excellent talent with Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart. Gehrig Dieter is a solid slot guy, and OJ Howard can be dangerous (as he demonstrated last year against Clemson when he had the performance of his life). However, Alabama’s O-line has struggled in pass protection this season, especially against very good front 7s. Unfortunately for Alabama, Clemson’s pass rush is incredibly aggressive. Often times, they are capable of hammering the pocket with a 4 or sometimes even a 3 man rush. Once they become capable of pressuring with so few, they are able to send many guys out into coverage which locks down the field.

Clemson’s pass defense is led by Cordrea Tankersley, a projected first rounder. He has been incredible the last 2 seasons, and I expect he will shut down Calvin Ridley. There is a chance Ridley may be able to do some things with bubble screens, but it is unlikely Jalen Hurts will be comfortable throwing deep to Ridley with Tankersley constantly on him.

Clemson has some impressive stats on this side. They are 5th in sacks per game, with 3.5. They are 3rd in tackles for loss per game, with 8.79, which includes both run and pass defense. They are tied 3rd in Passing yards per attempt, with 5.7. They also only allow 75% of teams’ passing yards per attempt on average. They are 4th in Pass Efficiency defense, highlighted by their whopping 20 interceptions to only 12 TD passes allowed. Their excellent lock down defense ranks 6th in the country in 3rd down conversion defense.

Alabama’s pass offense is not very impressive, despite the athletes. It ranks 37th in yards per attempt, with 7.8 which is certainly not bad. Jalen is careful with the ball usually, opting to not force much, with a Passing Efficiency ranking of 29th, and Jalen having thrown 22 TDs to 9 interceptions. However, the sacks allowed per game ranking of 40th, with 1.71 is where things begin trending down. The pressure and lack of ability to stretch the field vertically have forced many plays that are blown up behind the line, ranking a disgusting 108th with 7.21 per game. With Alabama’s offensive style, it is difficult to get a drive going again once a negative play has occurred, although Alabama ranks 21st in 3rd down conversion %, it only ranks 62nd in first downs per game. The team does not try many passes per game, only ~27.5 ranking 98th, and thus averages 214 yards per game, ranking 81st. However, Jalen usually throws well below that average against big defenses.
When looking at explosive plays, Alabama is terrible at 10-19 yard pass gains, ranking 81st. They are 33rd in 20+, and 13th in both 30+ and 40+. This is slightly skewed due to not being a per-game stat, but still fairly impressive. Clemson’s defense ranks 55th in 40+ yard pass plays allowed, so who knows, maybe Stewart or Howard will catch some space.

Clemson Pass Offense vs Alabama Pass Defense
This is the match up I assume much of the country is excited about. Deshaun Watson, one of the greatest quarterbacks of this era, and his core of incredible receivers, vs the vaunted Alabama defense who’s Achilles’ heel appears to be the deep ball.

Everyone knows Deshaun Watson, the 6’3 215 pounder who despite having a “skinny” sort of appearance, actually is very muscular. He has long arms which he uses to throw very “pretty” passes. He seems to do an incredible job of floating the ball with perfect touch into tight windows, most of the time. He can get a little overconfident in himself and this leads to throwing a lot of interceptions, especially in big games. These interceptions are probably the biggest hurdle that stood in his way to earning the Heisman trophy. He believes he is the best player in college football, and Nick Saban does too. When Watson is playing under pressure, he responds with a clear drive to win and he is phenomenal to watch. His performance in last year’s national championship game was one of the best performances by a Quarterback on that stage, and he did it against an elite Saban defense. Will he be able to repeat his performance?

His receivers are well known to be a very talented bunch. They are highlighted by Mike Williams, the 6’3 225lb phenomenal possession receiver. His best attribute is probably his ability to high point the deep ball. He does an excellent job of getting up over cornerbacks and dominating them on the perimeter. He has great body control, and his catch radius is enormous. He also is very difficult to stop on 3rd and mid slant routes. His speed may not be elite, but it doesn’t have to be with his style.
Their secondary receiver is actually their TE, Jordan Leggett who seems to be rather underrated. He is projected as a 2nd or 3rd rounder at the moment. They love to go with a 4 receiver look (including a flexed out TE), and sometimes even a 5-wide look (sending the RB out), and no matter the formation, they make great use of every one of their possible receiving options. The lone reception TD against Ohio State was actually a play action pass from the RB (Fuller) back to Fuller on a wheel route. Deon Cain, Ray-Ray McCloud, Artavis Scott, and the slot receiver Hunter Renfrow are all threats on the field. It is supremely difficult to lock all of them down.

Renfrow is very underrated, especially by his own fan base. Many of them claim “Minkah Fitzpatrick (5* CB that moved to safety this year due to injuries) was exposed by our walk-on” in last year’s NCG. While it is true that Renfrow did very well on a couple routes in particular against Fitzpatrick, it was that he and Watson did excellent jobs on that. It is difficult to defend perfect routes and passes. The guy has plenty of talent and speed (I saw something saying he had the best shuttle time on the team at some point, and he has a fast 40 time) that makes him excellent at his slot receiver position. The reason he was a walk-on was not due to talent, but his lack of size and experience. He has gained sufficient size for his role, and earned a scholarship. I’m not sure what star ranking he is equivalent to, but he’s good. I’d expect a four star ranking if he had been a JUCO player, for example.

Alabama’s pass defense is something of glory this year when accounting for the front 7’s role as well. The pass rush is highlighted by Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams, and Ryan Anderson. Other guys do a fantastic job as well. This game will be different though in that they cannot simply seek to destroy the quarterback, instead opting for contain and collapse. Reuben Foster, acclaimed for his hard hits and powerful run stopping, is also an excellent coverage linebacker according to PFF’s grading system. Fitzpatrick is a great ball hawk from his safety role, and he also lines up in the slot. There is a good chance we will see Fitzpatrick vs Renfrow again, this time Fitzpatrick claiming he seeks to dominate his opponent.
Ronnie Harrison is a much underrated safety, as he is an excellent all-purpose defender. Marlon Humphrey is an excellent cornerback, and is projected as a first rounder. However, he has allowed a rather large number of deep completions. The one TD allowed vs Washington was Pettis vs Humphrey. One thing interesting about that game was there were a lot of snaps where Humphrey was matched with Pettis and not Ross. This makes me wonder whether we will see Williams vs Humphrey or Williams vs the quietly excellent Anthony Averett.
Clemson’s passing yards per game ranks at 7th with 328. Alabama’s defense ranks 14th in this category with 182.

Clemson is 31st in yards per attempt with 8. They are 17th in passing efficiency, with Watson having thrown 38 TDs to 17 interceptions. Thanks to Watson’s mobility and the quick-strike approach to their offense, they rank 13th in sacks allowed per game. They are capable of throwing the ball many times per game, mostly in part due to the fact that it works. They are elite at moving the chains, ranking 5th in 3rd down conversion % and 4th in first downs per game. They rank 26th in tackles for loss allowed per game with 4.93, so it is difficult to stall their drives with bad plays.
Alabama ranks 3rd in the country in sacks per game with 3.5. They will have to use a different plan than the one last year however. Alabama ranks 3rd (tied with Clemson) in pass yards per attempt with 5.7. They only allow 74.5% of their opponent’s average, which is about half a percent better than Clemson’s. Their pass efficiency is ranked 5th, having allowed 12 TDs to 16 interceptions. They may not be quite as big ball hawks as Clemson, but I expect to see an int or 2 from Watson.

When looking at explosive plays, this is scary for Alabama. It’s also interesting to see the style Clemson runs with their offense. Despite being such great deep threats, and Watson having the most completions in throws of over 20 yards, they are elite in 10+ and 20+, but they quickly drop in 30+ and 40+. The sheer number of 10+ and 20+ throws keeps their chains moving rapidly, and it is hard as a defense to get them off the field. This lead to exhaustion late in the game a year ago, we will see if the Alabama defense will manage to prevent fatigue this game. Clemson ranks 2nd in 10+, 4th in 20+, 35th in 30+, and 97th in 40+.

Alabama’s defensive ranking in this category are far different than their rankings in other defensive categories. They rank 21st in 10+, 63rd in 20+, 51st in 30+, and 38th in 40+. I expect Williams is gonna catch a couple 20+ throws.

Special Teams
Punting
First of all, the style of each punter is very different and this causes very different stats. Alabama’s punter has a very strong leg and booms the ball. Clemson’s punter does the little rugby style. This causes Alabama’s punts to travel farther, but they are easier to return.

In punting, Alabama is 2nd and Clemson is 117th.

In punt return average allowed, Alabama is 104th and Clemson is 25th.

In punt returns per game allowed, Alabama is 57th and Clemson is 6th.

In punt return average, Alabama is 5th (misleading due to Eddie Jackson being injured halfway through season) and Clemson is 61st.

Kick Return

In KR Offense, Alabama is 90th and Clemson is 55th.

In KR Defense, Alabama is 79th and Clemson is 48th.

I find those numbers surprising with all the talented athletes on the roster of both teams.

Field Goal %
Alabama is 57th and Clemson is 64th.

Did you write all this yourself or is this copy and pasted?

TLDNR

Clemson 29-27

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Did you write all this yourself or is this copy and pasted?

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I wrote it all myself. Put it in Word in order to more easily break it down to copy and paste over to the forums. I knew it would be long and most would not care to read it, but I figured the first post would be enough for most, and if people were interested in specifics they could go further.

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Not having Kirby scared of a mobile QB this year is a huge positive for Bama.

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he was actually scared?.. or maybe.. just maybe.. Watson had a good fricking game last time against Alabama.

I don't know.

just throwing that out there.

I'm a bit nervous about the run game, cause it'll need to be on. Not sure Bo will be able to shite down their necks like he did with Washington's deafness.

ETA: defense

Watson had time to feel the pressure(what pressure?). So while he was just chilling and reading stuff, the secondary is scrambling their dicks off to cover.

Well shite, All Watson had to do was find an open guy(impossible to cover for that long), or get outside which he was fast enough to do.

Screw that. Make him make decisions. Fast decisions. Sure, one of the pass rushers will look stupid flying last Watson and whiffing on him. But another guy will be right there to light his arse up. And when he makes a great play because he's a great player, line up and do that shite again.

If he beats Alabama doing that, then screw it, enjoy the show. But make his arse work.