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Started By
Message
re: 10-0 vs 16-0 vs 17-0 vs 24-0
Posted on 1/18/15 at 4:19 pm to graychef
Posted on 1/18/15 at 4:19 pm to graychef
quote:You know what puts more pressure on them than 3 points? 7 points.
Getting points is necessary against Seattle. They aren't an offensive juggernaut. They are methodical. They capitalize on turnovers. Get the points, get the lead. Put pressure on them.
The EV says you go for it on 4th down inside the 1, that's a no brainer.
0
Posted on 1/18/15 at 4:20 pm to ZeeDustin
quote:If the math worked out exactly the same as this 4th down, you'd be dumb not to in your pretty bad analogy.
If you guaranteed to win 100$ would U chance it to win 105$?
Posted on 1/18/15 at 4:21 pm to ZeeDustin
If he goes for it the first time and misses, the ensuing kickoff is not fumbled.
Posted on 1/18/15 at 4:22 pm to ZeeDustin
quote:I saw that same link, and I didn't understand that either.
If it succeeds 100% of the time how is that +2.6? Wouldn't it be 2.9 or 3?
But what you're also missing in your equation is that if you don't get it and SEA has 1st and 10 inside their own 1, you're not factoring the really good odds that GB ends up getting the ball back and getting in FG range any way. That's a huge part of it.
Posted on 1/18/15 at 5:39 pm to ZeeDustin
quote:so... That field goal by Green Bay woulda actually been for the win?
Odds also say you would likely get one of them placing 17-0
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