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10-0 vs 16-0 vs 17-0 vs 24-0
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:42 pm
So math says go for it twice on 4th and goal. At best it's 24-0 game out of reach with how Wilson is playing. Odds also say you would likely get one of them placing 17-0 much higher to get than 24-0. 10-0 is the worst but has better by a slight margin to even odds than getting both. 16-0 is a guarantee. So why chance for 17-0 when 16-0 is automatic? 100%
10
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:43 pm to ZeeDustin
what?
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:44 pm to ZeeDustin
Automatic?
Still have to make the FGs
Still have to make the FGs
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:44 pm to ZeeDustin
Some people say cucumbers taste better pickled
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:45 pm to ZeeDustin
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:45 pm to castorinho
What was the XP made percentage last year? Over 99.5%?
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:46 pm to ZeeDustin
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/17/21 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:47 pm to ZeeDustin
But it wasn't 100%, was it? 
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:47 pm to ZeeDustin
quote:
16-0 is a guarantee. So why chance for 17-0 when 16-0 is automatic? 100%
WHAT...THE...frick
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:47 pm to ZeeDustin
I was going to clean my giraffe but spaghetti sauce.
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:47 pm to graychef
That's what they did. They got the automatic points. They can rely on lil Lynch now.
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:48 pm to ZeeDustin
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/17/21 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:48 pm to SPEEDY
If you guaranteed to win 100$ would U chance it to win 105$?
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:52 pm to ZeeDustin
Seattle has a much better chance of scoring points if you kick a fg rather than failing on a 4th down conversion @ the 1
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:53 pm to castorinho
Crosby is a good kicker. As a coach you must trust he'll make them
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:54 pm to UFownstSECsince1950
Yeah his analysis completely ignored the ensuing possession by the Seattle's offense
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:55 pm to ZeeDustin
It is all about expected values and the binary results of Winning vs. losing the game.
The expected value of going for it on those 4th downs was absolutely higher than kicking it. Your probability of winning also increases more by going for it than it does by kicking the field goal. It is not even a question.
The expected value of going for it on those 4th downs was absolutely higher than kicking it. Your probability of winning also increases more by going for it than it does by kicking the field goal. It is not even a question.
Posted on 1/18/15 at 3:58 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Posted on 1/18/15 at 4:00 pm to OneMoreTime
And the packers have had three of them today that were all obviously "go for it" scenarios. We be the bit says I'm wrong on the one that wasn't on the goal line. Surprised about that one.
Also, that link is cool
Also, that link is cool
This post was edited on 1/18/15 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 1/18/15 at 4:03 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
If it succeeds 100% of the time how is that +2.6? Wouldn't it be 2.9 or 3?
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