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1
Posted on 1/16/13 at 2:47 pm to memphstigers23
quote:
Towson ML
Naturally
Posted on 1/16/13 at 2:51 pm to TJG210
If it ain't broke don't fix it
Posted on 1/16/13 at 3:13 pm to memphstigers23
Make it rain on the train!
Indiana fricked up a great ml par that I had rolling last night.
Indiana fricked up a great ml par that I had rolling last night.
Posted on 1/16/13 at 3:29 pm to 1fairbank
quote:
So is laying the whole account on Colorado St ML a sound plan?
Well my rundown gives CSU a 91.7% chance, so if the implied odds of the CSU money line are less than 91.7%, then go for it
Though I never recommend playing -200 or greater money lines unless you are putting them in a parlay
Posted on 1/16/13 at 3:30 pm to tiger3030
Missed one on my previous post from açc's sheet.
Illnois-Chicago -2 projected to win 62-49
If any of these come back from dg as plays, I think I'm going (x2).
Illnois-Chicago -2 projected to win 62-49
If any of these come back from dg as plays, I think I'm going (x2).
Posted on 1/16/13 at 3:32 pm to Bow to Auburn
Same here and only because Ole Miss pulled off a miracle.
Posted on 1/16/13 at 3:37 pm to TJG210
quote:
Has RAS hit any of his public plays lately? I play his picks occasionally and recall being disappointed the last few times I tailed him.
I'm not sure, someone I follow on twitter posts the release - the lines have already moved by 1 or 1.5 by that point
Just speaks to the skills of RAS and their influence, really impressive.
Posted on 1/16/13 at 4:26 pm to tiger3030
quote:
Missed one on my previous post from açc's sheet.
Illnois-Chicago -2 projected to win 62-49
If any of these come back from dg as plays, I think I'm going (x2).
I remember Illinois-Chicago (and Loyola-Chicago too, I forget exactly) being a 2x play of dg's last week and they got blown the frick out, so I'd be wary to play that.
I tend to notice on ACC's sheets that if you add five points to the home team, you tend to get real close to what the line is right then.
Posted on 1/16/13 at 4:42 pm to 1fairbank
quote:
I tend to notice on ACC's sheets that if you add five points to the home team, you tend to get real close to what the line is right then.
Should i use this as factual evidence against ACC's lines?
Posted on 1/16/13 at 4:45 pm to lsumailman61
quote:
Should i use this as factual evidence against ACC's lines?
If anything, you should use this as evidence that ACC's system might be pretty damn close to how Vegas picks their opening lines.
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:02 pm to 1fairbank
Some of you have asked for how accurate my sheets predictions are and how they do against posted totals and against the spread, I just made a blog post about it:
LINK
It's informative and shows how my sheets have done for the past week.
For those of you who don't want to read the whole thing and just want the gambling info, here it is:
Unfortunately, nothing has shown a profit yet except for Sniper Money Lines, and a very small one at that. This is a small sample size, however. Fortunately, the pickier we get in selecting games to bet, the better we do, with the ATS 10/Total 10/Sniper ML being near break even. This goes to show that you can’t rely solely on a prediction algorithm or method to make wagering bets, you have to use more resources at your disposal to properly handicap a game, such as injury reports, trends, history, and individual matchups. I do stand by my prediction center as a useful tool to measure expectancy.
LINK
It's informative and shows how my sheets have done for the past week.
For those of you who don't want to read the whole thing and just want the gambling info, here it is:
quote:
Total ATS: 113-111-6 (-9.1 units)
Total Totals: 99-115-16 (-27.5 units)
Total ML: 82-86 (-62..5 units)
-
ATS 3: 52-58-5 (-11.8 units)
Totals 3: 24-32-12 (-11.2 units)
Smart ML: 39-60 (-10.65 units)
-
ATS 6: 28-29-3 (-3.9 units)
Totals 6: 9-13-11 (-5.3 units)
Ultra ML: 23-38 (-15.7 units)
-
ATS 10: 9-9-2 (-0.9 units)
10 Totals: 6-6-11 (-0.6 units)
Sniper ML: 21-17 (+ 0.35 units)
Unfortunately, nothing has shown a profit yet except for Sniper Money Lines, and a very small one at that. This is a small sample size, however. Fortunately, the pickier we get in selecting games to bet, the better we do, with the ATS 10/Total 10/Sniper ML being near break even. This goes to show that you can’t rely solely on a prediction algorithm or method to make wagering bets, you have to use more resources at your disposal to properly handicap a game, such as injury reports, trends, history, and individual matchups. I do stand by my prediction center as a useful tool to measure expectancy.
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:05 pm to accnodefense
I do want to add that I do think fading the totals my calculator predicts could be a wise thing to do. Though teams have a set pace, the coaches try to exploit the other team’s pace and get them out of theirs, which can completely ruin any predictablilty when it comes to totals. I have seen the actual total of a game differ greatly from the predicted total not just in this one week span, but throughout multiple seasons. I don’t suggest blindly betting the other side of the predicted totals on my sheets, but there is evidence to suggest it will show a profit.
Some coaches will have their teams play out of style to confuse or disrupt the opponent. For example, last week Notre Dame played high tempo run up and down the floor against Seton Hall despite the fact that Notre Dame is anything but fast paced this year.
Fading the predicted totals on my sheet, at the moment, is the closest thing to a +EV way to bet using my sheets, but I do want to add that the sample size is still small.
Some coaches will have their teams play out of style to confuse or disrupt the opponent. For example, last week Notre Dame played high tempo run up and down the floor against Seton Hall despite the fact that Notre Dame is anything but fast paced this year.
Fading the predicted totals on my sheet, at the moment, is the closest thing to a +EV way to bet using my sheets, but I do want to add that the sample size is still small.
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:09 pm to accnodefense
Ok......trying the NBA again..
0-2 YTD
Miami -2.5
Oklahoma -8
0-2 YTD
Miami -2.5
Oklahoma -8
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:16 pm to McGregor
quote:
Ala has covered twice (Tex Tech, Oakland) in about their last 10 games and are favored at State. They also lost a game (Mercer) where there was no line.
I'll be taking Alabama tonight fwiw
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:22 pm to Bryant91092
Manti Teo > betting
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:28 pm to memphstigers23
I'm not understanding what is the big deal about this story. Is the implication that he made it up to become a sympathetic figure and, potentially, garner more pub/award votes/etc.?
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:29 pm to memphstigers23
quote:
Manti Teo > betting
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:33 pm to TJG210
Bama/auburn pat
Posted on 1/16/13 at 5:36 pm to Bow to Auburn
Dg and Mac take a deserved but unwelcomed night off?
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