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When do interest rates rise

Posted on 7/19/16 at 12:50 pm
Posted by PenguinNinja
Antarctica (and Japan)
Member since Sep 2011
2081 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 12:50 pm
IYO?
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50344 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

When do interest rates rise



To what degree? Or do you mean at all?
Posted by BamaCoaster
God's Gulf
Member since Apr 2016
5264 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 3:25 pm to
The fed will raise rates in Feb of 2017, and blame the collapse on Trump.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4585 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 3:52 pm to
I think it's a much more complicated picture than most realize. The US is basically awaiting the rest of the world to get their shite together
Posted by stevengtiger
Member since Jul 2013
2778 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 4:06 pm to
quote:

I think it's a much more complicated picture than most realize.


I definitely agree with that.

quote:

The US is basically awaiting the rest of the world to get their shite together


Not so much here. I think the US has more power than most other countries combined when it comes to currency. As long as our rates are extremely low, the rest of the world can't get anything together financially. Most of them need our rates to be higher.

I really do think that there is a ton of political pressure on the Fed to keep them down at least until after the election. Raising rates could very well cause the market correction that we need right now. I think the bubble is getting bigger than most realize.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4585 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 4:12 pm to
Raising our rates while the rest of the world is in negative rates will only continue to strengthen our dollar, which is not good for us.

Abd where is this bubble you're referring to?
Posted by stevengtiger
Member since Jul 2013
2778 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

Raising our rates while the rest of the world is in negative rates will only continue to strengthen our dollar, which is not good for us.


That is definitely a possibility but I don't think that the Fed is waiting on the rest of the world to go back to positive interest rates before raising ours.

quote:

Abd where is this bubble you're referring to?


Well the market is at all time highs with labor participation and manufacturing dropping by the day. Housing prices are raising continuously as long as rates stay low. There is without a doubt in my mind a housing bubble going on in many parts of the country. Not to the extent of 2008 but I think its happening. Once rates go up, the less house someone can afford and will drag home prices lower.

This is only my simple minded opinion. There are plenty of people on this board smarter than me.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4585 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 4:51 pm to
I don't disagree with that. Although i think it could be more regional than it was 8 years ago. One thing I read about was some of these developers in large metro areas were doing crowd funding REITs essentially instead of getting traditional loans from the bank. So essentially they open up for local investments to be made into a new 50 family condominium plex per say, if you invest then you get an equity stake. They've eliminated the middle man (banks), but I think there is hidden risk here that the general public has never seen.

To respond to the other point though, I think the Fed is absolutely concerned about the rest of the world and Yellen has made that known. I believe she's more or less a lame duck at this point now and looking for Trump to replace her, should he win presidency. Therefore, she just doesn't want to be the one to be blamed should raising rates be disaterous. But of course that's all speculation.
Posted by Porker Face
Eden Isle
Member since Feb 2012
15337 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 6:32 pm to
Before end of 2016
Posted by iknowmorethanyou
Paydirt
Member since Jul 2007
6547 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 6:41 pm to
3Q 2018
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10266 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

The fed will raise rates in Feb of 2017, and blame the collapse on Trump.


I think they'll wait until he been in there a little longer to really drill the blame in personally. maybe November 2017?
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10266 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

Abd where is this bubble you're referring to?


Asset bubble.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4585 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:28 pm to
Which assets?
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10266 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:42 pm to
Go find somebody else to play your game.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4585 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:50 pm to
If you're gonna make a claim in a post like that, then back your shite up. Otherwise, get out of the thread if you're not bringing something of value, troll.
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10266 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 8:39 pm to
LINK

My positions have been pretty clear and consistent.

To add to that, let's not all forget what the catalyst for this rally was. A bogus jobs report that had a good chunk of the previous months jobs lumped in it. When you average the two months out they are meager at best.

So, dk you care to justify the valuation on the market right not? We've seen 4 straight quarters of declining earnings and a rising market. Other than being the tallest midget in a zero rate world, what is the justification?
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
20449 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 8:43 pm to
There's definitely a housing bubble in that if rates go up, the housing market is going to correct itself. I'm starting to see people buy homes they should not be buying and housing prices in the 3 counties around me are very high right now compared to 1 year ago and especially compared to 2 years ago. People can afford them as is, but I think that is mostly because rates are so low that monthly payments are still decent.
Posted by PlanoPrivateer
Frisco, TX
Member since Jan 2004
2796 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 9:59 pm to
Surely in 2015. Oh, 2016 - crap. 2017 and 2018 for sure,
Posted by dabigfella
Member since Mar 2016
6687 posts
Posted on 7/19/16 at 10:42 pm to
baldona, i agree they're getting more home than they can afford but if its locked in on a 30 yr loan its fine, the crash in 2008 was bc everyone was using ARMs, they're tough on who they give those out to today. Whatever it is, rates are gonna be low for a long long time, so we better get used to it.
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