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Volkswagen faces possible $18B in federal fines in wake of emissions scandal

Posted on 9/21/15 at 10:52 pm
Posted by Street Hawk
Member since Nov 2014
3460 posts
Posted on 9/21/15 at 10:52 pm
quote:

Volkswagen Group is apologizing after the US Environmental Protection Agency accused the automaker of using illegal software in its TDI diesel cars to skirt US emissions standards.

The EPA claims certain VW and Audi vehicles use software that meets clean diesel emissions standards when hooked up to testing equipment but then switches to a dirtier mode when disconnected. This causes the torquey TDIs to actually spew up to 40 times more tailpipe emissions when driven in the real world.

The affected vehicles are 2009-2015 model year Volkswagen Jetta, Beetle and Golf, the 2014-2015 VW Passat, and 2009-2015 Audi A3, totaling roughly 482,000 diesel passenger cars.

Depending on the outcome of the EPA and CARB's investigations, the automaker could be hit with a maximum possible fine of $37,500 for each of the vehicles in violation, adding up to a possible $18 billion in federal fines.

In the wake of the scandal, Volkswagen's stock dropped by as much as 23 percent, wiping out about $17.6 billion (€15.6 billion) in shareholder value.

LINK
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
98816 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 9:21 am to
That'll teach them to rebuff the UAW's efforts in Tennessee.

The EPA, and US environmental laws/regulations (I am talking to you California) are a damned joke.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 9:33 am to
Once it hits a market cap in the 30-35B I'm going to start dollar cost average for the next 2-3 Years.
Posted by Mr.Perfect
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2013
17438 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

That'll teach them to rebuff the UAW's efforts in Tennessee.


well EFFF the UAW for starters
Posted by RebelExpress38
In your base, killin your dudes
Member since Apr 2012
13563 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 12:54 pm to
I have a 2011 TDI, am I gonna get paid?
Posted by JamalSanders
On a boat
Member since Jul 2015
12135 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 12:59 pm to
quote:

Once it hits a market cap in the 30-35B I'm going to start dollar cost average for the next 2-3 Years.


Layman's terms please.
Posted by DownshiftAndFloorIt
Here
Member since Jan 2011
66763 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 1:31 pm to
Waiting to see how this will play out for the owners also. I have a 2014 TDI
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 1:35 pm to
When VW keeps falling and this is at its worse, I'll start investing a couple hundred $s /month in them for the next couple years.


I don't believe VW/Audi will fall off the face of the earth, I believe this will blow over and I believe they can recover. If they can get back to where they are today in terms of sales, I don't believe the fines will be >$30-50bil which is what the drpo in market cap would suggest
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33403 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 1:40 pm to
This really is one of the more surprising stories in memory. A true black swan for VW shareholders. This has to be the biggest 2-day drop of a $50B+ company in years, right?
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 2:25 pm to
THe past year has been rough. Stock was at ~$250 and dropped to around $175 over a few months. THen in one week dropped to $100


Jeez
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33403 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 2:33 pm to
Amazing. And now (if not already), this has entered the political realm. I would absolutely love to know how US diplomats and other operatives will use this for leverage behind closed doors.
Posted by JamalSanders
On a boat
Member since Jul 2015
12135 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 3:25 pm to
Ahh, makes sense. Thanks for the info.
Posted by Creamer
louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
2817 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 4:10 pm to
When do we start buying?
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24149 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 4:16 pm to
You can probably start buying now. Buy fear. The company is not going out of business over this and Audi will come out of this untarnished. Honestly, VW will not be tarnished much... I doubt folks care if they tried to skirt the EPA. It isn't exactly the most loved of agencies.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 4:35 pm to
I am going to wait a week or two to see how the international reaction plays out. I think the fear is only going to grow as other countries try to get their share of VW/Audi


I agree, in 2-3 years, I think this is going to be the same as the Toyota Floor mat issue. A fine and historical footnote of an international corporation
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 5:17 pm to
quote:

When do we start buying?


Without going into theory about security pricing theory, this is based on your assessment. Most people recommend buying any company you feel is undervalued and keep buying until it gets to the value you believe in.


According to EMH, there really is never a time you should buy any individual stock and VW right now is correclty priced based on available information.

My argument is that the lack of information about future rulings/fines/lawsuits increases the volatility/risk premium of holding the stock and that the potential upside for me outweighs the downside.

Keep in mind that this play is almost for sure going to be a 1-2 year investment minimum to see real value.
Posted by Street Hawk
Member since Nov 2014
3460 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 5:48 pm to
Is Volkswagen stock traded in the US? What is the ticker symbol?
This post was edited on 9/22/15 at 5:49 pm
Posted by PrettyLights
Member since Oct 2014
1163 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 5:57 pm to
quote:

Is Volkswagen stock traded in the US? What is the ticker symbol?


Posted by Omada
Member since Jun 2015
695 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 9:08 pm to
quote:

This has to be the biggest 2-day drop of a $50B+ company in years, right?
The last one I can think of is BP, but I don't recall what the drop was like for them. Other than that, probably a few bank stocks during the mortgage crisis.

So yes, it has been a few years.
Posted by Omada
Member since Jun 2015
695 posts
Posted on 9/22/15 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

Is Volkswagen stock traded in the US? What is the ticker symbol?
It trades as an ADR on the OTC boards. The two symbols are VLKAY and VLKPY. I'm not sure what the difference is since I haven't bothered to check, but it might have something to do with dividends and taxation, like Shell.

ETA: @PrettyLights
This post was edited on 9/22/15 at 9:14 pm
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