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Thoughts on oil stock?

Posted on 11/18/15 at 5:44 pm
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
37523 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 5:44 pm
Considering investing $5-10K in oil stocks. Will be my first time investing on a larger scale. What is the opinion here on oil? Shell is right around $50 currently and this time last year it was $71.
Safe move or dumb?
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 5:52 pm to
40% upside if oil fully recovers?

Let's make this fun and get you in PQ, HK, SGY, and CHK.

You can always make more money, but you can't be guaranteed buying opportunities like these.

Disclaimer: please don't tell any regulatory body that I suggested this.
Posted by Jp1LSU
Fiji
Member since Oct 2005
2542 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 5:55 pm to
Balance sheets. I wouldn't want to put money in a company that may be going belly up. There's a few that fit that category.

I bought Exxon a few months (?) during some dark days at $68. I sold Callon (CPE) for the 8th time this year today. It goes below $8.5 I'll be back in. I've bought and sold, and still hold CLNE. I may be adding to D, but that's not a true O&G play and I'm unsure what to do about ETP.

I don't follow She'll, but on a good dip I'd buy.
Posted by TheIndulger
Member since Sep 2011
19239 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 6:04 pm to
Petroquest has been diving for the past several years, even before oil tanked. Would you really want to invest in them?
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4584 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 6:22 pm to
Still Long with HK at 2k shares, here's to hoping oil rebounds sharply!
Posted by Porker Face
Eden Isle
Member since Feb 2012
15337 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 7:36 pm to
I own xom and cop
Posted by autodd03
Clown world
Member since Dec 2013
2532 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 7:37 pm to
I could see oil hit a $20 handle before spring. We are awash in the stuff and it is still full steam ahead. When there is no place left to store it, the drilling has to stop. Then what?
Posted by autodd03
Clown world
Member since Dec 2013
2532 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 7:40 pm to
quote:

xom and cop


What price should i target for entering a long term position in xom?

Why negative eps for cop? Are they taking on debt to pay the dividend?
Posted by Jp1LSU
Fiji
Member since Oct 2005
2542 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 7:40 pm to
CHK is quite the roll of the dice.
Posted by Jp1LSU
Fiji
Member since Oct 2005
2542 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 7:42 pm to
$20. That is quite the problem for the whole market in my world view.
Posted by autodd03
Clown world
Member since Dec 2013
2532 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 7:47 pm to
Would seem most oil companies were not built for these prices. If they continue to go lower, the weaker hands will eventually fold. It just isn't sustainable. The washout in the oil patch will be the new subprime crisis
Posted by Porker Face
Eden Isle
Member since Feb 2012
15337 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 9:04 pm to
Well I'm a avgd at around $64 on cop so I'm probably not the one to ask lol

I've been buying and selling xom. Recently bought some at $71, out at $84ish. That was pretty lucky on both sides though looking back.

I'm mostly out right now, I think there is going to be more pain and more buying opportunities come Jan-Feb

Just saw I forgot to answer long on XOM. Just buy next time it tanks... You can't go wrong long with them IMO. Oil majors ain't going anywhere
This post was edited on 11/18/15 at 9:13 pm
Posted by autodd03
Clown world
Member since Dec 2013
2532 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 9:18 pm to
Thanks. Maybe i can get in near 70
Posted by Porker Face
Eden Isle
Member since Feb 2012
15337 posts
Posted on 11/18/15 at 9:31 pm to
I got in literally 20 min before a 3 year low. You could probably do well if you bought today. All depends on how much you want to "play the game"

I assume you are talking several years horizon. You'll be fine whenever with oil majors entering now IMO

Keep in mind I probably don't know shite from Shinola. Just speculating with money, which is all the market is anyway. If you ever "know" , turn yourself in to the SEC
Posted by cave canem
pullarius dominus
Member since Oct 2012
12186 posts
Posted on 11/19/15 at 1:45 am to
quote:

Considering investing $5-10K in oil stocks. Will be my first time investing on a larger scale. What is the opinion here on oil? Shell is right around $50 currently and this time last year it was $71.
Safe move or dumb?


Not a bad move IMHO, I would just wait a bit longer as I don't think we are near bottom yet. Again just IMHO
Posted by PlanoPrivateer
Frisco, TX
Member since Jan 2004
2796 posts
Posted on 11/19/15 at 1:48 pm to
I've got HP (Helmerich & Payne) on my watch list. If they hit their 52 week low then I may buy.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7918 posts
Posted on 11/19/15 at 2:00 pm to
I've looked at a few oil stocks. Debt is still as high or higher than this time last year and income is down pretty much across the board.

If you do dive in refinery margins are still pretty nice so I'd lean towards stocks with refinery exposure. Example is Tesoro (TSO) is still making all time highs while XOM is down 20% from its high and CVX is down 25% from its high.
This post was edited on 11/19/15 at 2:04 pm
Posted by PlanoPrivateer
Frisco, TX
Member since Jan 2004
2796 posts
Posted on 11/19/15 at 2:00 pm to
I've got HP (Helmerich & Payne) on my watch list. If they hit their 52 week low then I may buy.
Posted by autodd03
Clown world
Member since Dec 2013
2532 posts
Posted on 11/20/15 at 8:22 pm to
I plan to holdout a bit longer. Too much debt and too much supply out there. Something has to give. I'll try to wait until the defaults start hitting before getting in long term
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4094 posts
Posted on 11/20/15 at 10:32 pm to
What's your time horizon? How much of your liquid net worth does this represent? Have you considered dollar cost averaging your way into some positions over time or looking at energy ETFs or mutual funds?
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