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Started By
Message
Things aren't looking good for Louisiana's RE market
Posted on 1/23/16 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 1/23/16 at 2:11 pm
We all knew this was a going to be a reality with the state of oil prices but it's interesting to see the numbers.
A "start" is someone past the 90-day late mark where the legal process actually begins. What's interesting is the seriously delinquent rate (90 days) in LA dropped from 4.7% in January to 4.1% in December but that could also be because a lot of homes moved from serious delinquent to the pre-foreclosure process.
I do not have the number of "starts"/pre-foreclosures for November but in December the year over year was up 27% and LA was one of only 9 states with an increase over the previous year.
As of now, foreclosure inventory in LA is down from a year ago but that seems to be only a matter of time as these new homes will soon start to move through the legal process which can go on forever in Judicial states like LA. Some of you know I am in the foreclosure business and we have some that take years to move through the legal process and switch to REO in Louisiana. We are seeing an increase of "cash for keys" and Deed in Lieu settlements as banks are trying to speed this up though.
The sources I use (besides the clients I personally deal with) to keep up with this are CoreLogic and RealtyTrac for anyone interested.
quote:
Some 43,358 properties started the foreclosure process in September, the lowest level since November 2005.
States bucking the national trend with the biggest increase in foreclosure starts in September compared to a year ago included Louisiana (up 468%), Missouri (up 131%), Virginia (up 70%), Massachusetts (up 60%), and Texas (up 21%).
A "start" is someone past the 90-day late mark where the legal process actually begins. What's interesting is the seriously delinquent rate (90 days) in LA dropped from 4.7% in January to 4.1% in December but that could also be because a lot of homes moved from serious delinquent to the pre-foreclosure process.
I do not have the number of "starts"/pre-foreclosures for November but in December the year over year was up 27% and LA was one of only 9 states with an increase over the previous year.
As of now, foreclosure inventory in LA is down from a year ago but that seems to be only a matter of time as these new homes will soon start to move through the legal process which can go on forever in Judicial states like LA. Some of you know I am in the foreclosure business and we have some that take years to move through the legal process and switch to REO in Louisiana. We are seeing an increase of "cash for keys" and Deed in Lieu settlements as banks are trying to speed this up though.
The sources I use (besides the clients I personally deal with) to keep up with this are CoreLogic and RealtyTrac for anyone interested.
5
Posted on 1/23/16 at 2:17 pm to stout
Consistent statewide, or primarily driven by certain markets (NO, BR, Lafayette)?
Posted on 1/23/16 at 2:25 pm to Paul Allen
The reports don't break it down that far for pre-foreclosures go but RealtyTrac has a map you can view for inventory reports.
LINK
The map is for foreclosed properties only.
From my personal experience is that Lake Charles is slowing way down with pre-foreclosures and Laffy and BR are increasing. I do not cover the NOLA area. The furthest North I cover, for now, is to Alexandria and there has been zero change around there and Leesville.
LINK
The map is for foreclosed properties only.
From my personal experience is that Lake Charles is slowing way down with pre-foreclosures and Laffy and BR are increasing. I do not cover the NOLA area. The furthest North I cover, for now, is to Alexandria and there has been zero change around there and Leesville.
This post was edited on 1/23/16 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 1/23/16 at 2:28 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
NO
I'm by no means tracking it in detail, but I'm not seeing much change in N.O. yet.
It has to be coming though.
Posted on 1/23/16 at 3:29 pm to notiger1997
I agree. You'd think NO is going to be buffered by development, especially the medical district, but it looks like it'll get there eventually.
Posted on 1/23/16 at 3:33 pm to Paul Allen
Especially since we seem to be in this bubble with just stupid expensive home prices.
Posted on 1/23/16 at 4:20 pm to stout
quote:
The map is for foreclosed properties only.
Pretty high in my county here in TX
Not that surprising
(1 in every 1492)
Posted on 1/23/16 at 4:32 pm to Powerman
That's a lot
Posted on 1/23/16 at 6:20 pm to stout
You gonna give me a heads up on good buys?
Posted on 1/23/16 at 8:09 pm to stout
What types of people/professions are paying the insane NOLA prices in lakeview and uptown? If its oil related and DTIs are high it could definetly cause a drop in prices and increased foreclosures.
Posted on 1/23/16 at 9:23 pm to LSUFanHouston
I'm not in oil, but I also bought a kind of fixer upper so I think (hope) my downside risk is a little less. However, a healthy market would benefit me as a few homes around me could use a good owner when the current kicks the bucket.
This post was edited on 1/23/16 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 1/23/16 at 10:04 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
What types of people/professions are paying the insane NOLA prices in lakeview and uptown
I've been asking this on here for years now
Posted on 1/23/16 at 10:20 pm to Powerman
quote:
Pretty high in my county here in TX
Not that surprising
(1 in every 1492)
That's just homes actually in foreclosure. That isn't counting REO properties or homes in pre-foreclosure. You can at the least triple the number considering those factors.
If those numbers were accurate, then there would only be like 50 foreclosures in Calcasieu Parish right now and we take care of more than that since we do REO and pre-foreclosure work as well. We probably service 150-200 homes at any given time.
Posted on 1/25/16 at 2:01 pm to stout
Hey Stout:
Just popping in to say hallo and also I will be monitoring/participating in this thread as it hopefully progresses
We have some indicators showing that we might be getting back into foreclosure land for sure....glad you started this thread
Just popping in to say hallo and also I will be monitoring/participating in this thread as it hopefully progresses
We have some indicators showing that we might be getting back into foreclosure land for sure....glad you started this thread
Posted on 1/25/16 at 2:46 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
but I also bought a kind of fixer upper so I think (hope) my downside risk is a little less. However, a healthy market would benefit me as a few homes around me could use a good owner when the current kicks the bucket.
7th, 8th, or 9th ward?
Posted on 1/25/16 at 3:32 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
7th, 8th, or 9th ward?
I'm Uptown.
It was just an overlooked little area.
Half the houses are redone. Half have older owners from 1990 or so and could use some TLC.
A development that has been approved should also push values up theoretically.
This post was edited on 1/25/16 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 1/25/16 at 3:36 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
I'm Uptown.
quote:
A development that has been approved should also push values up theoretically.
If this is where I am thinking of, it's more Irish Channel-ish?
There are a few little pockets where yeah, it has been overlooked, or maybe not really overlooked but just very early in the "gentrification" cycle. If you got in, good deal. Some of those areas really aren't all that unsafe, either.
Posted on 1/25/16 at 3:41 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
If this is where I am thinking of, it's more Irish Channel-ish?
There are a few little pockets where yeah, it has been overlooked, or maybe not really overlooked but just very early in the "gentrification" cycle. If you got in, good deal. Some of those areas really aren't all that unsafe, either.
Actually towards Audubon but I don't want to say too much
Though I assume you are talking about that old hospital on Jackson being approved.
Ya, I'm not expecting a windfall or anything, but hopefully if any market forces push prices down I'll have some things coming in to shore it up.
Now its one of those, I hope they break ground and get going before the economy potentially slows down. I had a front row seat to the $1 billion Margaritaville in Biloxi being stopped mid construction due to the 2008 whatever downturn.
This post was edited on 1/25/16 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 1/25/16 at 3:48 pm to notiger1997
quote:
I'm not seeing much change in N.O. yet.
It has to be coming though.
why does it have to be coming?
NO is very desirable place to live, for a variety of reasons, and i dont see any signs of that stopping
Posted on 1/25/16 at 4:12 pm to rocket31
doesn't have the jobs to support current prices
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