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re: So tell me why I shouldn't sell out and move everything if the market evens out

Posted on 8/24/15 at 3:47 pm to
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
51895 posts
Posted on 8/24/15 at 3:47 pm to
I was speaking from the impression that I was being "called out" so was covering all the bases.

While I'm sure you will almost always get countermanding data if you look at every thing, I only attempt to make general statements of the present situation.

So I don't use everything, and then I put certain weight on certain things

Someone else may have their own approach, and there no real "right" way.
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
28103 posts
Posted on 8/24/15 at 4:43 pm to
I'm actually inclined to agree with you. I'm not really worried about the short to medium term, but I am very, very concerned about the middle class over the length of my career (in my early 20s so just getting started).

And I'm by no means a bitcoin dork, zero hedge reader, precious metals guy, prepper, etc.

Eta: btw, GDP growth is more like 2.1% historically if memory serves me correctly
This post was edited on 8/24/15 at 4:47 pm
Posted by CajunTiger92
Member since Dec 2007
2820 posts
Posted on 8/24/15 at 6:26 pm to
You don't get out because it will cost you money. Over 20 years the profit is big. We've only been in this bull market since 2009. It has plenty of legs left. We are in the middle innings. In bull markets, corrections are times to put more money to work if you have it on the side line.
Posted by SomethingLikeA
Member since Jul 2013
1112 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 12:15 am to
My favorite example for novices who are fearful and pull all their money on a loss is this. Your house is an asset. Let's even assume free and clear.

If your home value dropped 50% because an appraiser said so, would you sell right away before it went lower? No chance.

Same with markets. Why sell because it drops? Buy more if you can as it will return..at some point. If you have a long time frame.
Posted by Santa Clause
123 Fake Street
Member since Apr 2004
11450 posts
Posted on 8/25/15 at 5:46 pm to
Don't play the market short term. You will lose. If you play the long game, you will be fine.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55220 posts
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:52 pm to
Only down 4k now, fighting the urge to move to more conservative funds.


If I would have moved money on Tuesday I would have left with around a 12k loss, glad I didn't pull out
Posted by LSU1018
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
7215 posts
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:55 pm to
Just think if you would have dollar cost averaged, you would at least be even.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55220 posts
Posted on 8/27/15 at 10:34 pm to
I'm new to this, what does that mean?
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
51895 posts
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:06 pm to
It means to not make purchases in large lump sums.

For instance, instead of putting a grand down, put in 250 dollars a week for a month.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
26984 posts
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:38 pm to
quote:

I'm new to this, what does that mean?


I invest $105 per week, every week, automatically, no exceptions. Rain or shine, sleet or hail. I have several thousand dollars that I could invest immediately. I choose not to, because I'd rather ride the market up and down instead of buying in at one lump sum.

That's dollar cost averaging.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55220 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 7:32 am to
So are hoping to hit more low points by buying at multiple times vs saving up and buying in chunks?

Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16157 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 7:52 am to
quote:

So are hoping to hit more low points by buying at multiple times vs saving up and buying in chunks? 



It's not really hoping for anything. It's understanding that it's impossible to predict the market, therefore you completely take the guessing out of it and just invest at set intervals.

You may buy when it's up, you may buy when it's down, but you don't stress yourself out trying to predict the unpredictable.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 8:22 am to
You have an average cost in, and hope to get in return average long term growth (historically).
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55220 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 8:48 am to
That makes sense, you have an average cost in vs the bad luck chance that you put all your marbles in at an anomaly of a high point.



I've been sitting on another large sum waiting to see if the market really dives down, so maybe I should start putting it in regularly in portions in case the market never dives and only keeps slowly climbing
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 9:10 am to
DCA is best for most people. What they miss in my opinion, is taking some gains when they're sufficiently up, and moving these gains to someplace else in order to better diversify, and limiting losses.

You can both DCA and risk manage. It's not that hard, although others argue an element of timing, which I guess is evil.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2471 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 9:18 am to
Damnit I thought we had the real stripper-marrying-shite-gas selling Lou Pai on here.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4579 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 9:54 am to
Now that requires discipline and the average investor lets their emotions take over their discipline when things get rough and even when they are good. However, I agree with you. Rebalancing is important.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
26984 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 10:11 am to
I'll become more conservative as I approach retirement, but my exposure is so broad that "rebalancing" would be nothing but guesswork for me.
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